Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[tsubaki]

He’s the favourite becuse sitting presidents always are.

He won the election due to <80k votes across three states. Democratic turnout will be significantly up on 2016, and there’s zero indication Trump has in any way expanded his base.

You've correctly described what they think will happen, but that sort of thinking is exactly why they will probably lose in 2020.

This idea that "Trump's base" - 40-45% of the country in other words - is forever lost is genuinely a disgraceful stance for a supposedly progressive party to hold. It obviously isnt a homogenous bloc, but in that 40-45% there are millions of voters who are poor, who have little education and who the GOP (and hangers-on in the media) have actively lied to and screwed over for years. A healthy political party would look at them and try to win them over, not point to the worst offenders on Youtube and say that it would dirty their hands to even talk to that lot.

Sadly you can see the same phenomenon here with some of the FBPE types, who actively wish misery on people solely because they voted to leave.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

You've correctly described what they think will happen, but that sort of thinking is exactly why they will probably lose in 2020.

This idea that "Trump's base" - 40-45% of the country in other words - is forever lost is genuinely a disgraceful stance for a supposedly progressive party to hold. It obviously isnt a homogenous bloc, but in that 40-45% there are millions of voters who are poor, who have little education and who the GOP (and hangers-on in the media) have actively lied to and screwed over for years. A healthy political party would look at them and try to win them over, not point to the worst offenders on Youtube and say that it would dirty their hands to even talk to that lot.

Sadly you can see the same phenomenon here with some of the FBPE types, who actively wish misery on people solely because they voted to leave.

Depends what you call the Trump base. What I would call his base is not as high as 40-45%. That number is about the total % who will vote republican. Or rather the number that did vote republican in 2016. Remains to be seen what the number will be in 2020.

Your weird Brexit point is... well... weird. It’s the Brexit voters who have wished/inflicted misery on the rest of the country for little to no good reason.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Excellent. He was pretty dreadful in the first debate

 

[tsubaki]

Depends what you call the Trump base. What I would call his base is not as high as 40-45%. That number is about the total % who will vote republican. Or rather the number that did vote republican in 2016. Remains to be seen what the number will be in 2020.

Your weird Brexit point is... well... weird. It’s the Brexit voters who have wished/inflicted misery on the rest of the country for little to no good reason.

... after having misery inflicted on them for little to no good reason.

Brexit will be a disaster, but I am not sure why anyone was surprised that large swathes of the country outside London voted for it when over decades their industries collapsed or were stripped away, jobs got worse, their money went less far, gig and agency labour began to predominate, political parties regularly foisted London-based political types (Labour having an especially shameful record here) on them instead of local candidates, their kids started to be charged thousands to go to uni (if they went) and it became far more difficult to get affordable housing.

In fact, literally nothing shows how little the political class cared about the rest of the country than the fact that they are all up in arms about Brexit in ways that they never were when it was other people having their livelyhoods ruined.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Not as,much as either Buttigieg (24.8m) or Biden (21.5m) but impressive fundraising given that Warren isn’t using big donors.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

... after having misery inflicted on them for little to no good reason.

Brexit will be a disaster, but I am not sure why anyone was surprised that large swathes of the country outside London voted for it when over decades their industries collapsed or were stripped away, jobs got worse, their money went less far, gig and agency labour began to predominate, political parties regularly foisted London-based political types (Labour having an especially shameful record here) on them instead of local candidates, their kids started to be charged thousands to go to uni (if they went) and it became far more difficult to get affordable housing.

In fact, literally nothing shows how little the political class cared about the rest of the country than the fact that they are all up in arms about Brexit in ways that they never were when it was other people having their livelyhoods ruined.

I don’t disagree with those being some of the reasons people voting leave (along with good old fashioned racism and xenophobia)

Although of course more or less none of that is anything to do with the EU.

 

[tsubaki]

I don’t disagree with those being some of the reasons people voting leave (along with good old fashioned racism and xenophobia)

Although of course more or less none of that is anything to do with the EU.

None of it was, though the fact that everyone they blamed (in many cases correctly) for this state of affairs was all on one side did make it very easy to vote against them.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

None of it was, though the fact that everyone they blamed (in many cases correctly) for this state of affairs was all on one side did make it very easy to vote against them.

Doesn’t make it any better of a decision

 

[tsubaki]

Doesn’t make it any better of a decision

I never said it was. I just think politicians must look at what has happened to those areas / those people before banging the "they are all racist / xenophobes / deplorables" drum, and possibly also look at what our politicians have done to them.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

I never said it was. I just think politicians must look at what has happened to those areas / those people before banging the "they are all racist / xenophobes / deplorables" drum, and possibly also look at what our politicians have done to them.

Oh not all, by any means.

Just a good chunky portion.

 

[tsubaki]

Oh not all, by any means.

Just a good chunky portion.

Perhaps, though again that portion have been actively indulged by a lot of politicians with their talk over limits / restrictions on migrants. Tom Watson for example.

 

[sdk]

For 2020? Because he would represent a Democratic Party that thinks they were just unlucky last time, that there isn't anything fundamentally wrong with what they are doing, and that at the end of the day they know (and deserve) best.

A person who gets most of their political information by way of social media would never know it, but progressives constitute a minority faction within the Democratic Party and the majority of party members prioritize the ouster of Trump and a turn to incremental reform over ditching the current rightwing revolution for a leftwing version.

 

[sdk]

Republican turn out will also be higher

I don't see any reason to assume that. The GOP are very good at getting the base out to vote but they haven't really grown that base in any appreciable manner for years, particularly in light of their increasing identity as the white people's party. Trump's campaign brought new people out to vote but they haven't necessarily joined the party, and the party itself has also been losing more conventional members since Trump's ascent to office. I don't think it's hyperbolic to speculate that one of the major outcomes of the Trump presidency could be the destruction of the Republican Party as a mainstay of the two-party system.

 

[tsubaki]

A person who gets most of their political information by way of social media would never know it, but progressives constitute a minority faction within the Democratic Party and the majority of party members prioritize the ouster of Trump and a turn to incremental reform over ditching the current rightwing revolution for a leftwing version.

"incremental reform" lol