Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[LinekersLegs]

what is the threshhold set at? 2 votes?

The combination of both higher fundraising and poll results (rather than either/or as in the first two debates) means we will probably be denied Marianne’s presence in the September debate despite an effort by some Republicans to donate $1 to her campaign fund.

DNC doubles threshold for third, fourth Democratic debates

The Democratic National Committee will double the qualifying thresholds and require that 2020 candidates meet both in order to participate in the third and fourth primary debates, the committee announced Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

Candidates had to achieve 1% in three polls from an approved list of pollsters or receive campaign contributions from 65,000 unique donors, including 200 donors each from 20 different states, to qualify for the first Democratic primary debates in June, which will be hosted by NBC News, and the second set of debates in July, which will be hosted by CNN.

In order to qualify for the third and fourth set of debates in September and October respectively, candidates will now have to achieve 2% in four polls from a slightly changed list of approved pollsters and receive 130,000 unique donors (from the date of their campaign's creation), including 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 US states.

 

[Alan Whittle]

The combination of both higher fundraising and poll results (rather than either/or as in the first two debates) means we will probably be denied Marianne’s presence in the September debate despite an effort by some Republicans to donate $1 to her campaign fund.

DNC doubles threshold for third, fourth Democratic debates

The Democratic National Committee will double the qualifying thresholds and require that 2020 candidates meet both in order to participate in the third and fourth primary debates, the committee announced Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

Candidates had to achieve 1% in three polls from an approved list of pollsters or receive campaign contributions from 65,000 unique donors, including 200 donors each from 20 different states, to qualify for the first Democratic primary debates in June, which will be hosted by NBC News, and the second set of debates in July, which will be hosted by CNN.

In order to qualify for the third and fourth set of debates in September and October respectively, candidates will now have to achieve 2% in four polls from a slightly changed list of approved pollsters and receive 130,000 unique donors (from the date of their campaign's creation), including 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 US states.

Interesting about the Republican donations. Reminds me of when Joe Kennedy (via JFK) donated $1000 to Nixon's 1950 (successful) US Senate campaign against Democrat incumbent Helen Gahagan Douglas.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

The combination of both higher fundraising and poll results (rather than either/or as in the first two debates) means we will probably be denied Marianne’s presence in the September debate despite an effort by some Republicans to donate $1 to her campaign fund.

DNC doubles threshold for third, fourth Democratic debates

The Democratic National Committee will double the qualifying thresholds and require that 2020 candidates meet both in order to participate in the third and fourth primary debates, the committee announced Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

Candidates had to achieve 1% in three polls from an approved list of pollsters or receive campaign contributions from 65,000 unique donors, including 200 donors each from 20 different states, to qualify for the first Democratic primary debates in June, which will be hosted by NBC News, and the second set of debates in July, which will be hosted by CNN.

In order to qualify for the third and fourth set of debates in September and October respectively, candidates will now have to achieve 2% in four polls from a slightly changed list of approved pollsters and receive 130,000 unique donors (from the date of their campaign's creation), including 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 US states.

How many debates are there going to be in total?

2% still seems really low going into a 4th debate

 

[LinekersLegs]

How many debates are there going to be in total?

2% still seems really low going into a 4th debate

Up to 12 iirc although obviously depends on whether a clear nominee appears early or it goes all the way to the convention in July.

There are only 7 candidates in the polling averages that are over 2% currently and in practice the 4 of Biden/Sanders/Warren/Harris seem to be rapidly consolidating votes so it might be a harder hurdle than it initially seems.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[verreauxi]

A really insightful analysis, in my opinion:

Politics Is Changing; Why Aren’t the Pundits Who Cover It?

The Donny Deutsch problem in media.

www.thecut.com

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

A really insightful analysis, in my opinion:

Politics Is Changing; Why Aren’t the Pundits Who Cover It?

The Donny Deutsch problem in media.

www.thecut.com

Just some of the many failings of the media in covering the current era of politics, on both sides of the Atlantic.

Another being that they haven’t remotely adjusted to one side being absolutely fine with lying on a pathologically regular level.

 

[Wat Tyler]

Biden will get eaten up alive by Trump.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Biden will get eaten up alive by Trump.

I don't want him as the nominee (and I don't think he will be - but I'm far from certain on that), but based on what ffs? Presumably on Trump's Socratic excellence in debates? Or on Biden having the biggest lead of any candidate vs Trump? Or based on Trump barely scraping an Electoral College win (while getting smashed in the popular vote) against the significantly more unpopular Clinton?

 

[Wat Tyler]

I don't want him as the nominee (and I don't think he will be - but I'm far from certain on that), but based on what ffs? Presumably on Trump's Socratic excellence in debates? Or on Biden having the biggest lead of any candidate vs Trump? Or based on Trump barely scraping an Electoral College win (while getting smashed in the popular vote) against the significantly more unpopular Clinton?

Trump is a buffoon to put it kindly but he was underestimated big time.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Trump is a buffoon to put it kindly but he was underestimated big time.

That.... doesn't answer the question

And it wasn't Trump that was underestimated - it was the number of people who would respond to and/or be willing to turn a blind eye to his idiocy and racism (amongst other unpleasant traits)

 

[Wat Tyler]

That.... doesn't answer the question

And it wasn't Trump that was underestimated - it was the number of people who would respond to and/or be willing to turn a blind eye to his idiocy and racism (amongst other unpleasant traits)

Trump can “barely scrape” electoral college wins, and lose the popular vote though, that’s the game. He will run on his low unemployment record, he has a massive base regardless and you can’t underestimate the malleability of the swing voters. Throw in the fact that Trump accusations don’t do any damage to him and he is the favourite. Horrible like.

 

[tsubaki]

I don't want him as the nominee (and I don't think he will be - but I'm far from certain on that), but based on what ffs? Presumably on Trump's Socratic excellence in debates? Or on Biden having the biggest lead of any candidate vs Trump? Or based on Trump barely scraping an Electoral College win (while getting smashed in the popular vote) against the significantly more unpopular Clinton?

For 2020? Because he would represent a Democratic Party that thinks they were just unlucky last time, that there isn't anything fundamentally wrong with what they are doing, and that at the end of the day they know (and deserve) best.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Trump can “barely scrape” electoral college wins, and lose the popular vote though, that’s the game. He will run on his low unemployment record, he has a massive base regardless and you can’t underestimate the malleability of the swing voters. Throw in the fact that Trump accusations don’t do any damage to him and he is the favourite. Horrible like.

He’s the favourite becuse sitting presidents always are.

He won the election due to <80k votes across three states. Democratic turnout will be significantly up on 2016, and there’s zero indication Trump has in any way expanded his base.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

For 2020? Because he would represent a Democratic Party that thinks they were just unlucky last time, that there isn't anything fundamentally wrong with what they are doing, and that at the end of the day they know (and deserve) best.

That’s a theory, and it’s possible it turns out true, but it’s not backed up by any of the available data so far.

 

[St. Domingo]

He’s the favourite becuse sitting presidents always are.

He won the election due to <80k votes across three states. Democratic turnout will be significantly up on 2016, and there’s zero indication Trump has in any way expanded his base.

Republican turn out will also be higher - the election will be like no other in recent history. The arrogant assumption everyone not on the MAGA train automatically is voting Dem is miles off. There's a demographic of Americans that the media never talk about, it's a group of people who don't like Trump but will still vote for him if there's no one else to vote for. That's why only Biden can beat him, because he's the only one perceived as moderate. The others are just too far off in crazy land to win and the polls show it