Current Affairs World War 3

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Baines' left foot said:
This is a concern.

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We could be here for a while if you want a full treatment of this one, but I'll tell you this. One way to think about presidential approval/voting intention is as a learning model. Current events affect what is top-of-mind for most voters, which leads to modest swings in opinion, but the impact of most events fades over time. (I've done original work to confirm that result.) Partisanship explains most 'votes', but a limited number of events cause a small proportion of individuals to 'learn' and switch partisanship.

It's way too early to say whether Gaza will prove to be one of those events. The portion of the opinion effect that fades tends to occur within six months or so. That trend line suggests it's a difference-maker, but only time will tell. Other events could overwhelm its effect, or Americans could be Americans and quit caring about what happened overseas the moment pundits quit talking about it.
 
Martin Alvito said:
We could be here for a while if you want a full treatment of this one, but I'll tell you this. One way to think about presidential approval/voting intention is as a learning model. Current events affect what is top-of-mind for most voters, which leads to modest swings in opinion, but the impact of most events fades over time. (I've done original work to confirm that result.) Partisanship explains most 'votes', but a limited number of events cause a small proportion of individuals to 'learn' and switch partisanship.

It's way too early to say whether Gaza will prove to be one of those events. The portion of the opinion effect that fades tends to occur within six months or so. That trend line suggests it's a difference-maker, but only time will tell. Other events could overwhelm its effect, or Americans could be Americans and quit caring about what happened overseas the moment pundits quit talking about it.
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It has the potential to be the key event, in terms of Biden - not only is the uncritical support of Israel hurting his standing with his base, but the criticism by the scum that infest the Israeli government (that Trump would have supported them better) is going to make him look weak and stupid. They’ve already started that.
 
Martin Alvito said:
We could be here for a while if you want a full treatment of this one, but I'll tell you this. One way to think about presidential approval/voting intention is as a learning model. Current events affect what is top-of-mind for most voters, which leads to modest swings in opinion, but the impact of most events fades over time. (I've done original work to confirm that result.) Partisanship explains most 'votes', but a limited number of events cause a small proportion of individuals to 'learn' and switch partisanship.

It's way too early to say whether Gaza will prove to be one of those events. The portion of the opinion effect that fades tends to occur within six months or so. That trend line suggests it's a difference-maker, but only time will tell. Other events could overwhelm its effect, or Americans could be Americans and quit caring about what happened overseas the moment pundits quit talking about it.
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I was genuinely surprised to see the polls so even. With everything the man has done the prospect of him steering the country is even scarier this time around.
peteblue said:
Certainly a concern for Biden……
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I doubt the USA will be anywhere near as helpful to us if Trump is in charge. He’s a threat to worldwide security.
 
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