Where will we finish?

[Death]

It’s been a disastrous first half of the season and we are still few points of Europe. With Carlo you’d imagine we will do much better this half so it’s not unreasonable to think we can get Europe.

 

[evertonandchelmsford]

Finish 6th and go straight into Europa group stages or finish 7th and have an extra 6 matches to qualify for group stages sandwiched between pre season & the first month of the season.

Wolves really struggled in the first two months but have done very well to recover their season.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Finish 6th and go straight into Europa group stages or finish 7th and have an extra 6 matches to qualify for group stages sandwiched between pre season & the first month of the season.

Wolves really struggled in the first two months but have done very well to recover their season.

Aim should be Utd, it’s only 6 points and there very hit and miss plus they got loads more games to come with the fa cup/league cup and EL/CL Duno what there in

 

[smileychap]

Next 4 fixtures:
JAN18 @ West Ham
JAN21 VS Newcastle
FEB1 @ Watford
FEB8 VS Crystal Palace

One would think those are all winnable matches. A good 4 week stretch against opposition we should be beating would likely see us in 5th.

I think 7pts. from the 12 on offer is more realistic, and would think that'd put us at 7th.

Follow that up with the toughest stretch of our season:
FEB23 @ Arsenal
MAR1 VS Man Utd
MAR7 @ Chelsea
MAR14 VS RS
MAR21 @ Norwich
APR4 VS Leicester
APR11 @ Spurs

Realistically I see 8 pts. from 21 on offer. Thats 15 pts. from the next 11 matches for a total of 43pts at 33 matches played. That would be 3 less than last year at that stage and likely see us 10/11th.

The run in:
APR18 VS Southampton
APR25 @ Wolves
MAY2 VS Aston Villa
MAY9 @ Sheffield
MAY17 VS Bournemouth

I see 11 pts. from 15 available. Thats 54 pts. which is good for a 7th - 9th place finish every year for the last decade or so.

64 points; which is the average needed for a 6th place finish over the last decade, would be an incredible return at this stage and would mean we are beating all the teams outside Sky's top 6 regardless if it's home or away.

In conclusion, expect 7th - 9th, and if we achieve a 6th place finish and European football, Ancelotti should be in contention for manager of the year.

Good post that, lad.

 

[Brisan123]

Thursday Cup is hard but boring, and a wonderful opportunity to explore an atlas very often. And unless we’ve got fabulous strength in depth is more of a chance to knacker players completely.

Win the 3 home games
Play the reserves away and hope to pick up a point or 2 and we are qualified.

 

[Toffeelover]

Win the 3 home games
Play the reserves away and hope to pick up a point or 2 and we are qualified.

Thought long and hard about the title and have worked it out. We finish in the PL.

 

[MikeH72]

Finish 6th and go straight into Europa group stages or finish 7th and have an extra 6 matches to qualify for group stages sandwiched between pre season & the first month of the season.

Wolves really struggled in the first two months but have done very well to recover their season.

No it doesn’t work like that. Our coefficient will be much higher than Wolves and Burnley, so we’d enter at a later stage.

 

[evertonandchelmsford]

No it doesn’t work like that. Our coefficient will be much higher than Wolves and Burnley, so we’d enter at a later stage.

that isn't how Europa qualifying works unless if they've changed the rules for next season. Your coefficient decides whether you're seeded or unseeded in each round.

 

[MikeH72]

that isn't how Europa qualifying works unless if they've changed the rules for next season. Your coefficient decides whether you're seeded or unseeded in each round.

When we were in it in 2017 we only played two qualifying rounds (Ruzomberok and Split), whereas Burnley the year later had to play 3. Wolves also played 3 qualifying rounds this season.

 

[toffeejack]

Finish 6th and go straight into Europa group stages or finish 7th and have an extra 6 matches to qualify for group stages sandwiched between pre season & the first month of the season.

Wolves really struggled in the first two months but have done very well to recover their season.

those qualifiers can easily be used to check if some kids are ready to make the step up to the first team, bed new players in, give some fringe players a last chance to prove they can play apart or be sold.

They need to be viewed in the same way that the Nations League is better than International Friendlies. I really don't think it has much of a hindrance on teams, it's just the teams that usually play in them are just poor and overachieved. Look at teams like west ham, soton and burnley. They didn't bounce back the season after when they didn't have europe, they just finished lower/bottom half again, like they usually do.

 

[evertonandchelmsford]

When we were in it in 2017 we only played two qualifying rounds (Ruzomberok and Split), whereas Burnley the year later had to play 3. Wolves also played 3 qualifying rounds this season.

That is correct but wasn't because of club coefficients though.

It was when UEFA made the 4th place in premier league an automatic champions league place the Europa league places changed.

But anyway a long way to go we've got to get there first!

 

[peteblue]

I think we will finish 6th......

 

[Martin Alvito]

64 points; which is the average needed for a 6th place finish over the last decade, would be an incredible return at this stage and would mean we are beating all the teams outside Sky's top 6 regardless if it's home or away.

In conclusion, expect 7th - 9th, and if we achieve a 6th place finish and European football, Ancelotti should be in contention for manager of the year.

Chelsea's only on pace for 67. 64 would likely leapfrog United comfortably, who is on pace for 58. If United starts to flag, something like 55 could get 5th place done.

I agree that 7th is the most likely outcome, but the league is so down this year that even finishing 5th is not completely crazy talk.

 

[tadpole]

Next 4 fixtures:
JAN18 @ West Ham
JAN21 VS Newcastle
FEB1 @ Watford
FEB8 VS Crystal Palace

One would think those are all winnable matches. A good 4 week stretch against opposition we should be beating would likely see us in 5th.

I think 7pts. from the 12 on offer is more realistic, and would think that'd put us at 7th.

No reason why we can't win any of those next 4 games, but you know that each one of them is going to be a close struggle given the way that we're playing. Just hoping that Ancelotti can pull out that little bit of extra magic from the players.

 

[Mitch Ward's Minder]

We won’t get anymore than 55 points, so 8th maximum. That’s 27 pts from remaining 16 fixtures. If we’d had that points return from our first 16 games we’d be well in the mix (4th place)