Current Affairs Ukraine

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Putin either needs to put up or shut up.

The whole situation is just a pathetic Willy waving contest at the moment.

All the time the citizens of all countries impacted are at the sharp end of the stick.

Joke.
 
Martin Alvito said:
My sense is that the physical security risks are further up his list of concerns than long run grand strategy. He has a relatively short time horizon at this point. Reality is that we can't realistically launch an invasion staging from the Baltics. The troops would be too vulnerable to WMDs. I also think he figures that the political and economic fallout will die down over time, as it always has before, and he's probably right about that.

Since the EU has a mutual defense component, I would tend to predict some of the same things you're predicting with respect to the EU arming. I do think that they'll free-ride as hard as they can unless/until the US becomes untrustworthy. I also think that the one-foot-in, one-foot-out states that are in the EU, but not NATO, will be pushed towards membership in both. I don't see it becoming a truly cohesive whole. The identity politics are just too strong.

I don't have a lot of optimism with respect to improved governance in the West. Very few people over here, including the ostensibly educated ones, are capable of looking much what they perceive to be short-run self-interest. Isolationism is quite popular, blatant corruption is tolerated, and those that are less well-off are vulnerable to demagoguery.

My guess would be that the game stalemates from here, which should suit Putin just fine. He wants the Baltic states back, but they're just not worth the risk. He'll saber-rattle a bit when he needs to domestically, keep chipping away at the EU and NATO, and probably start trying to sow further division between the G7 and China.
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I think that is what he thinks is going to happen, but I am not sure it will go like that. The West is never going to invade Russia, but then it doesn't have to - all it has to do is have a noticeably (to Russians) better standard of living for everyday folk compared to being run by corrupt oligarchs; that is what is causing him problems now (with the impact we've all seen on their proxy states) and will be in the future.

Assuming again that they do invade, one would imagine that would be something the west cannot ignore - they aren't going to go into Ukraine to fight the Russians and defend it (though if there is a sizeable resistance movement then it would probably be supported by various means) but the invasion combined with his demands is going to have a powerful effect on a lot of countries to turn away from a Russia led by him.
 
bullybeef said:
Putin either needs to put up or shut up.

The whole situation is just a pathetic Willy waving contest at the moment.

All the time the citizens of all countries impacted are at the sharp end of the stick.

Joke.
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Why? He seems to be doing fine as it is.

Everything else I agree with entirely.
 
bullybeef said:
I mean in terms of either putting his nuts on the chopping block or going back to BAU.
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I think if he does nothing, the situation normalises and everyone in the West tires of it all. He'll maybe pull out of Belarus but he'll have strengthened up the western border.

Then it's business as usual. Until Putin is out of the way, I don't see a major re-set any time soon with Russian-western relations.
 
Yarrgh said:
I think if he does nothing, the situation normalises and everyone in the West tires of it all. He'll maybe pull out of Belarus but he'll have strengthened up the western border.

Then it's business as usual. Until Putin is out of the way, I don't see a major re-set any time soon with Russian-western relations.
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Got the attention of the world and many countries no doubt promising all sorts...

Chris O'Connor said:
Only Corbyn and his subservient acolytes believed Putin to be anything but an opportunistic autocrat. Only Corbyn questioned the obvious Salisbury poisonings which showed the Russian leaders true intentions. Corbyn was Putin's useful idiot but now Putin sees an even bigger one in the White house.
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Corbyn would have used the soft power much much more. The money laundering happening in the UK right now would have been no doubt curtailed. And of course entirely one of a few reasons why he was vilified. Reap what you sow.

The world is awash with "Perfidious albion" actions, we the UK are a joke...

www.mortgagefinancegazette.com

Blog: Failure to tackle money laundering has ramifications for the Ukraine situation – Mortgage Finance Gazette

There are fears it could be difficult to impose effective sanctions on Russia because of the so-called ‘London laundromat’, says Martin Cheek At the time
www.mortgagefinancegazette.com www.mortgagefinancegazette.com
 
Yarrgh said:
I think if he does nothing, the situation normalises and everyone in the West tires of it all. He'll maybe pull out of Belarus but he'll have strengthened up the western border.

Then it's business as usual. Until Putin is out of the way, I don't see a major re-set any time soon with Russian-western relations.
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Not sure why he can’t be happy with his lot.
A happy cooperative Russia would be an asset to the world.
 
bullybeef said:
Not sure why he can’t be happy with his lot.
A happy cooperative Russia would be an asset to the world.
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I fully agree. A healthy non-dysfunctional Russia would be best all round for its citizens, neighbours and the rest of us.

One day... one day...
 
tsubaki said:
I think that is what he thinks is going to happen, but I am not sure it will go like that. The West is never going to invade Russia, but then it doesn't have to - all it has to do is have a noticeably (to Russians) better standard of living for everyday folk compared to being run by corrupt oligarchs; that is what is causing him problems now (with the impact we've all seen on their proxy states) and will be in the future.

Assuming again that they do invade, one would imagine that would be something the west cannot ignore - they aren't going to go into Ukraine to fight the Russians and defend it (though if there is a sizeable resistance movement then it would probably be supported by various means) but the invasion combined with his demands is going to have a powerful effect on a lot of countries to turn away from a Russia led by him.
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I would have told you the same thing after Sevastopol fell, but that didn't last, which has probably emboldened him. You may be right about the reaction this time. It's hard to say how Berlin, in particular, is going to react. Macron is with us, but he's only one leading EU voice.

I don't think he needs to go in to accomplish his objectives - I think the lesson is plain enough to see in Ukraine, and will ultimately pull them into his orbit - but if he does decide to do so, I have a hard time seeing Western resolve lasting indefinitely. There are just too many internal divisions.

bullybeef said:
Not sure why he can’t be happy with his lot.
A happy cooperative Russia would be an asset to the world.
Click to expand...
He trusts us about as far as he can throw us, and if I'm being honest it's not without cause. It is more or less official government policy in the West to pull him down and replace him. If his replacement is a drunken, popular nobhead like Yeltsin, so much the better.
 
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