Current Affairs Ukraine

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Spadge Vernacular said:
This would be the reality of Zelenskyy or any other leader surrendering occupied land to Putin.

A large battle hardened military would make the IRA look like the Vienna Boys Choir. It is clear that the only end to this is Russian withdrawl from Ukraine.
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Quite possibly. Conversely the response from Russia would make bloody Sundays look like a tickle fight in the Playboy Mansion.

But you do make a very good point, win or lose, we will be left with a battle hardened military within a country with a huge grudge and very likely under a government we'd consider to be fascist (I consider Russia to have a text book fascist government right now). This potentially explodes in the near future regardless of outcome and it could bring the Balkans into play which really would be catastrophic.

As for Russia leaving, well I'm sure the occupied regions' "vote" will show they're not keen for them to leave - might even get over 100%!

This will rumble on for years. A peace deal will rely on Russia fronting the bill and no NATO membership. A long term win would be getting Ukraine into the EU, removing the corruption and bringing in prosperity such that it is impossible to be deny within Russia that they would also benefit by following the same route and relinquishing control over the Donbass.

Russia requires long term thinking. China even more so.
 
Yarrgh said:
Quite possibly. Conversely the response from Russia would make bloody Sundays look like a tickle fight in the Playboy Mansion.

But you do make a very good point, win or lose, we will be left with a battle hardened military within a country with a huge grudge and very likely under a government we'd consider to be fascist (I consider Russia to have a text book fascist government right now). This potentially explodes in the near future regardless of outcome and it could bring the Balkans into play which really would be catastrophic.

As for Russia leaving, well I'm sure the occupied regions' "vote" will show they're not keen for them to leave - might even get over 100%!

This will rumble on for years. A peace deal will rely on Russia fronting the bill and no NATO membership. A long term win would be getting Ukraine into the EU, removing the corruption and bringing in prosperity such that it is impossible to be deny within Russia that they would also benefit by following the same route and relinquishing control over the Donbass.

Russia requires long term thinking. China even more so.
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If it was not about Russia wanting to plunder resources and bring Ukraine under the Kremlins boot the opportunity to have Ukraine exist outside of NATO could be a bargaining position. This won't for the reasons highlighted.

If Russia are not defeated there will be instability across Europe and more/worse trouble ahead.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
If it was not about Russia wanting to plunder resources and bring Ukraine under the Kremlins boot the opportunity to have Ukraine exist outside of NATO could be a bargaining position. This won't for the reasons highlighted.

If Russia are not defeated there will be instability across Europe and more/worse trouble ahead.
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So the war continues is the only option you see? Until it cannot be sustained further?

That is very possible. It's a grim outcome for all involved though.

Again the Russian situation will take some long term thinking. Treating them as the enemy and vice versa will not yield peace long term. I don't see Russia's complete defeat and renormalisation of relations between the west and Russia happening so both sides will have to get past Ukraine somehow and the sooner the better.
 
Yarrgh said:
The time was probably a year ago to prevent loss of life, damage to property against the balance of what territory could be regained.

The counter argument is that Ukraine never gives up and continues to fight for its lost lands and people no matter the cost. Would not envy Zelensky that choice.
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Hopefully the people will decide one way or the other by backing Zelensky or whoever - or not.

It's a big thing to ask a country
 
Yarrgh said:
So the war continues is the only option you see? Until it cannot be sustained further?

That is very possible. It's a grim outcome for all involved though.

Again the Russian situation will take some long term thinking. Treating them as the enemy and vice versa will not yield peace long term. I don't see Russia's complete defeat and renormalisation of relations between the west and Russia happening so both sides will have to get past Ukraine somehow and the sooner the better.
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It is a question Ukraine peoples will is to be free and soverign or to go back to the Kremlins mob rule. I am sure that many there see it this way and are heroically demonstarting this by sacricing their lives.

I do not think it is just a matter of sustaining the military. As I say, I think it would be a certainty that that an underground force would continue, in Ukraine and Russia as we saw in occupied Ireland. Russia would react and if they had accepted a settlement including Crimea and Odessa would use such a situation to push again for Kyiv.

The Baltic states would be targetted by an emboldened Kremlin - see Putins comments toward Latvia and Russian speakers there this week. This targetting might not be an invasion but political destabilisation and getting Putin puppets in place. This would have clear consequences for Europe.

For the democratic west, Russias dictator network, including China, Iran, Venezuala and Noth Korea would read a perceived defeat of the west as a green light and we would take a large step towards WW3.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
It is a question Ukraine peoples will is to be free and soverign or to go back to the Kremlins mob rule. I am sure that many there see it this way and are heroically demonstarting this by sacricing their lives.

I do not think it is just a matter of sustaining the military. As I say, I think it would be a certainty that that an underground force would continue, in Ukraine and Russia as we saw in occupied Ireland. Russia would react and if they had accepted a settlement including Crimea and Odessa would use such a situation to push again for Kyiv.

The Baltic states would be targetted by an emboldened Kremlin - see Putins comments toward Latvia and Russian speakers there this week. This targetting might not be an invasion but political destabilisation and getting Putin puppets in place. This would have clear consequences for Europe.

Estonia (taps nose)

For the democratic west, Russias dictator network, including China, Iran, Venezuala and Noth Korea would read a perceived defeat of the west as a green light and we would take a large step towards WW3.
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