Current Affairs Ukraine

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Hi, some of your knowledge about all things militarily are very informative.

I wonder what your take is on this,



And this.

"US Air Force blows up Minuteman III in test flight after post-launch anomaly | Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...-flight-after-post-launch-anomaly-2023-11-01/



In a purely military terms should the US Empire be too worried by this? Considering Russian missile and aircraft development.

The USA wouldn't be worried about Russian anything flying/ floating/ driving or not,
they would be like an elephant brushing a Gnat of its arse with a flick of its tail .
RUSSIA are Irritating can bite a little but unfortunately For them like the gnat its just going to get swatted aside .
Let's just face facts the yanks have the most powerful military this world has ever seen, add in its alliance partners and its truly mind-boggling.
 
The USA wouldn't be worried about Russian anything flying/ floating/ driving or not,
they would be like an elephant brushing a Gnat of its arse with a flick of its tail .
RUSSIA are Irritating can bite a little but unfortunately For them like the gnat its just going to get swatted aside .
Let's just face facts the yanks have the most powerful military this world has ever seen, add in its alliance partners and its truly mind-boggling.
Ukraine have blown up such a high percentage of Russian 'top tier' kit that, as we have all seen, they have had to bring kit out of the second world war museum to use.

Such is the level of destruction that they have now had to go, cap in hand to North Korea and Iran for military support.

They are being fleeced by all of their so called friends, and all because 'Putin'. It is only a matter of time before they are ceding land to their 'mates'.

This period of history of the Russia Federation/empire will be viewed with amazement by future moscovites.
 
Not surprising that people are urging the US Empire to allow a negotiated settlement. Staring defeat in the face does that, as in Vietnam.


It is not in US interests to allow a negotiated settlement because doing so will normalize wars of territorial aggression. The US has a Taiwan problem and a South China Sea problem. In time, China will be able to deploy more naval assets in the region than the United States can, because they're building ships far faster. It turns out that one result of Reagan's elimination of shipbuilding subsidies and the later BRAC and RIF movements in the '90s to balance the budget is that we suck at building warships now, or ships of any kind.

Semiconductors are a clear strategic asset and TSMC supplies most of them. Anything that emboldens China spells bad news for the United States and its allies. A war in Taiwan would devastate the global economy. If you think the oil shocks of the 1970s and COVID were shocks to the global economy, well, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Here's a good article on the nature of the semiconductor problem from the folks who publish Foreign Affairs:

 
Ukraine have blown up such a high percentage of Russian 'top tier' kit that, as we have all seen, they have had to bring kit out of the second world war museum to use.

Such is the level of destruction that they have now had to go, cap in hand to North Korea and Iran for military support.

They are being fleeced by all of their so called friends, and all because 'Putin'. It is only a matter of time before they are ceding land to their 'mates'.

This period of history of the Russia Federation/empire will be viewed with amazement by future moscovites.
If you hear about damage to a ceiling in the Kremlin, it will be from Putin hitting it when the Chinese ask for Vladivostok back.
 
It is not in US interests to allow a negotiated settlement because doing so will normalize wars of territorial aggression. The US has a Taiwan problem and a South China Sea problem. In time, China will be able to deploy more naval assets in the region than the United States can, because they're building ships far faster. It turns out that one result of Reagan's elimination of shipbuilding subsidies and the later BRAC and RIF movements in the '90s to balance the budget is that we suck at building warships now, or ships of any kind.

Semiconductors are a clear strategic asset and TSMC supplies most of them. Anything that emboldens China spells bad news for the United States and its allies. A war in Taiwan would devastate the global economy. If you think the oil shocks of the 1970s and COVID were shocks to the global economy, well, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Here's a good article on the nature of the semiconductor problem from the folks who publish Foreign Affairs:

Exactly how does the US Empire, have a 'Taiwañ and South China Sea problem'? It's 7000 miles, or so, away from America.
 
Exactly how does the US Empire, have a 'Taiwañ and South China Sea problem'? It's 7000 miles, or so, away from America.
Because we have security commitments to Taiwan and the Philippines. The one to Taiwan was ambiguous until recently. The commitment to Taiwan is not enshrined in a treaty the way the Philippines commitment is, but everyone understood it was there. Biden recently clarified it by stating he absolutely would defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. Whether him saying that was a good idea or not is a matter of some debate.

The Philippines are wrangling with China and a bunch of other players, including Taiwan, over the key shipping lanes and oil and gas deposits in the South China Sea, and have been for decades. The short version there is that China has been adding manmade islands to the Spratly Islands, which in and of themselves have little value, in an effort to claim the entire South China Sea as territorial waters (the infamous nine-dash line) under international maritime law. More or less everyone in the region has planted military forces on the various rocks and reefs.

The UN found for the Philippines a few years back, but declined to settle the territorial dispute. As you might expect, the US and its closest allies came out in favor of the ruling, China and its closest allies came out against, and everyone else more or less shut up about the whole thing because they don't want to get nuked by either.
 
Because we have security commitments to Taiwan and the Philippines. The one to Taiwan was ambiguous until recently. The commitment to Taiwan is not enshrined in a treaty the way the Philippines commitment is, but everyone understood it was there. Biden recently clarified it by stating he absolutely would defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. Whether him saying that was a good idea or not is a matter of some debate.

The Philippines are wrangling with China and a bunch of other players, including Taiwan, over the key shipping lanes and oil and gas deposits in the South China Sea, and have been for decades. The short version there is that China has been adding manmade islands to the Spratly Islands, which in and of themselves have little value, in an effort to claim the entire South China Sea as territorial waters (the infamous nine-dash line) under international maritime law. More or less everyone in the region has planted military forces on the various rocks and reefs.

The UN found for the Philippines a few years back, but declined to settle the territorial dispute. As you might expect, the US and its closest allies came out in favor of the ruling, China and its closest allies came out against, and everyone else more or less shut up about the whole thing because they don't want to get nuked by either.
Ah I get it. The US Empire has a 'security arrangement' with Taiwan, even though Taiwan is part of China, and is recognised as such by the US. So if a country has 'security arrangements' with a part of a country then it can protect it.

The Philippines government wanted a 'security arrangement' with the US, which any country can have. On the other hand, when a country doesn't want to continue with such an arrangement, then the US should agree and take their military bases away. Why does America still occupy part of Cuba, when the Cuban government doesn't want them there?

And why is the US Empire still in Syria, stealing oil and grain, when the Syrian government asks them to leave?

And why does the US still have a military presence in Diego Garcia, after the UN ruling?

"General Assembly Welcomes International Court of Justice Opinion on Chagos Archipelago, Adopts Text Calling for Mauritius’ Complete Decolonization | UN Press" https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12146.doc.htm

The US Empire has decided it's the world police force and everyone should dance to their tune. And that mean poking their nose into other people's business, because it's suits their west centric view of the world. The area around the South China Sea is a dispute between countries, similar to the Falklands island, similar to Gibraltar. I find it a bit odd that the self designated police force if the world doesn't want to sort out those two places. But then again they are extremely busy trying to hold on to their hegonomy.
 
This is a decent read regarding the impending fiasco at the UNSC.


Also


UN Human Rights Council Social Forum meeting takes place over a couple of days (now) and for this the UN have chosen Iran to chair. The promotion of human rights is a key agenda item!

:Blink: :Blink: :Blink: :Blink: :Blink:
 
Ah I get it. The US Empire has a 'security arrangement' with Taiwan, even though Taiwan is part of China, and is recognised as such by the US. So if a country has 'security arrangements' with a part of a country then it can protect it.

The Philippines government wanted a 'security arrangement' with the US, which any country can have. On the other hand, when a country doesn't want to continue with such an arrangement, then the US should agree and take their military bases away. Why does America still occupy part of Cuba, when the Cuban government doesn't want them there?

And why is the US Empire still in Syria, stealing oil and grain, when the Syrian government asks them to leave?

And why does the US still have a military presence in Diego Garcia, after the UN ruling?

"General Assembly Welcomes International Court of Justice Opinion on Chagos Archipelago, Adopts Text Calling for Mauritius’ Complete Decolonization | UN Press" https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12146.doc.htm

The US Empire has decided it's the world police force and everyone should dance to their tune. And that mean poking their nose into other people's business. The area around the South China Sea is a dispute between countries, similar to the Falklands island, similar to Gibraltar. I find it a bit odd that the self designated police force if the world doesn't want to sort out those two places. But then again they are extremely busy trying to hold on to their hegonomy.
The US will only tolerate a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan problem. Since the Taiwanese are vehemently opposed to any peaceful settlement, the policy effectively is a two-China solution. The Chinese are smart enough to figure that one out, which is why they're pumping out military vessels.

It doesn't matter which great power we discuss throughout history. If a country builds up substantial military might, it will use that power to further its interests wherever it thinks I can get away with it. The objections of weak powers will be ignored, and the UN doesn't matter in most conflicts, because the winners of World War II decided to rig the UN in their favor. One of them will stop more or less anything of substance from going through the Security Council.

If you think the US is bad now, I would invite you to review 19th Century American history. That was what the Israelis are doing now, but with a much larger scope. In general, the US runs around jumping up and down on fires these days, rather than lighting them, with the second Iraq war a notable exception. This doesn't make the US popular, but then again, police rarely are.

Remove the US from the equation, and you would see a whole bunch of full-scale wars the US military presently deters breaking out in short order.
 
Mr Potato Heads waffle aside, the reality is that Russia has occupied Syria to both maintian a footing its bases in the country, and chop their resources for the oligarchs.

The country is on the verge of another revolution as Syrians are demanding that the Russian and Iranian occupation cease and they be booted out.

 
The US will only tolerate a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan problem. Since the Taiwanese are vehemently opposed to any peaceful settlement, the policy effectively is a two-China solution. The Chinese are smart enough to figure that one out, which is why they're pumping out military vessels.

It doesn't matter which great power we discuss throughout history. If a country builds up substantial military might, it will use that power to further its interests wherever it thinks I can get away with it. The objections of weak powers will be ignored, and the UN doesn't matter in most conflicts, because the winners of World War II decided to rig the UN in their favor. One of them will stop more or less anything of substance from going through the Security Council.

If you think the US is bad now, I would invite you to review 19th Century American history. That was what the Israelis are doing now, but with a much larger scope. In general, the US runs around jumping up and down on fires these days, rather than lighting them, with the second Iraq war a notable exception. This doesn't make the US popular, but then again, police rarely are.

Remove the US from the equation, and you would see a whole bunch of full-scale wars the US military presently deters breaking out in short order.
Some research shows that the US, has only had 15 years of 'peace' since it's Indepence from being a UK colony.

Again, what does a Chinese internal problem have to do with the US? The US recognises Taiwan as being part of China. I can understand the US wanting a solution to the colonial occupation of the north of Ireland. Part ancestoral, partly because it brings votes but also it doesn't look good in the world. When the US is castigating others, for human rights abuses when it is happening right under their nose in the northern part of Ireland ie concentration camp H Blocks, and discrimination against nationalists, and soldiers on the streets etc.

Great powers do use their power for their ends. Currently, the US Empire's west centric view of the world (Great powers using their power for their ends) around Ukraine is for their ends, not Ukraine's. They are using Ukraine to further their ends ie damage Russia and wage further trade war against Germany - making energy costs more expensive ie no Russian gas but, 4 times more expensive US Liquid gas that has driven up energy costs, that has resulted in factories closing diwn.

As far as Iraq is concerned, Saddam was their man eg. waging war against Iran but made the fatal mistake for him of wanting to trade oil in dollars ie against US interests. He was a gonna as, was Ghadaffi the moment he proposed setting up an Africa bank which would counter the IMF and the world Bank domination and control of Africa.

The upshot is your last paragraph. Literally, the world is a safer place because of US dominance. Try telling that to Yugoslavs (Serbians). Trying telling that to Iraqi's. Try telling that to Libyans. Try telling that to Afghanis. Try telling that to Syrians. Try tell that to Africans. Try telling that to Ukraines. Try telling that Palestinians now.

Since the liquidation of the Soviet Union, and the US decided to police the world, there has been sbsolute mayhem, death and destruction with the US Empire centre stage. Unfortunately, for the US it's hegonomy is being challenged and countries are wanting to take their own path. Something the US is fundamentally against. Which leads to trade war and shooting wars.
 
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This is a decent read regarding the impending fiasco at the UNSC.


Also


UN Human Rights Council Social Forum meeting takes place over a couple of days (now) and for this the UN have chosen Iran to chair. The promotion of human rights is a key agenda item!

:Blink: :Blink: :Blink: :Blink: :Blink:
The problem with expelling Russia is that the same logic applies to the PRC. That was the exact legal quibble used to deny the PRC their seat, and grant it to the ROC (Taiwan) for decades.

China has quietly been spreading a lot of money around lesser developed countries, and they'll drag that whole voting bloc with them because they don't want that issue revisited. Booting Russia leaves the PRC with just a UN Resolution, and not the charter, as the paper shield their Security Council and UN Charter vetoes hang upon. What is done by the General Assembly can be undone. Revising the charter is all but impossible, so as long as someone else with a veto agrees that successor states to the state named in the charter should be recognized as the original entity, they're fine. That's Russia. Most people think the five countries have the veto because they're the five 'legal' nuclear weapons states under the NPT, and not the other way around as it is in fact.

Expelling Russia isn't great for the UK either, in the sense that they would be opening the door to the loss of their Security Council seat and vetoes in the event of Scottish or Northern Irish secession. Even the United States would need to have a long think, given our present political divisions. Only France can rest assured in the knowledge that, barring a catastrophe that would render the UN Charter irrelevant anyway, there will be a state called 'France'.

With respect to Iran, keep in mind that the General Assembly has the same one-country, one-vote problem as FIFA. When the charter was written, the age of actual empires was unwinding and there were just under 100 countries, mostly located in Asia, Europe or in the Americas. Add another ninety nations, mostly located in Africa, the Caribbean and Asia, and suddenly there are a lot of votes that can be had at very low cost, from the perspective of the big fish.

The result is that the UN and FIFA are both corrupt as all get-out, in terms of their governance structure. The various agencies of the UN may not be (and that's a debate worthy of its own thread), but UN votes are for sale. It's even legal. We call it foreign aid. There's also the problem that a large plurality, if not majority, of countries in the world want absolutely 100% of nothing done about human rights.
 
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