Well, Gerhard has zero credibility even in Germany. His plan is a little mixed up. The idea that Ukraine would remain without the security blanket of NATO after all this is insane. They'll have to be given membership. The price of that membership would likely be the official loss of Crimea. Unless they can win it back on the battlefield, that's gone. As for Donbass, that's less clear-cut.
I can't see a way that Ukraine ends this war and doesn't join NATO - unless Russia completely withdraws from Donbas and Crimea as the price of that Ukrainian neutrality. And even if they did, wouldn't the Ukrainians still need protecting?
That said, we might be coming to a crunch point where horrible choices will have to be made, because if the Ukrainians cannot win back land on the battlefield, what's the alternative? EU countries will tire of this after this winter. The Americans definitely have - and Trump is on the horizon. They might support one last push next summer, but we're into diminishing returns then surely. However, if tonight's exit polls in Poland are correct, Ukraine - and the EU - might have a lifeline.
