Current Affairs Ukraine

[Rita_Poon]

 

[peteblue]

That time of night unfortunately, but ‘I’ll be back’…….

 

[Rita_Poon]

That time of night unfortunately, but ‘I’ll be back’…….

nicely played.

 

[carlos21]

Say what ye want but this kev fella is just telling it like it is.

Good evening buddy.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I have absolutely no desire to see the U.K. assert itself as an imperial power. We’ve done that. We are just a small nation on a small island that punches above its weight and knows that the likes of Russia cannot threaten us with nukes, unless it too wishes to disappear.

He is indeed a pre-eminent political scientist whose previous views on Ukraine in the 90’s and the USA coincided with my own. However to dismiss Ukraine winning the war is a glib remark.

Meanwhile I am not debating this with him, but with you, and I would like to know what you really think and not what you are reading or watching. What do you believe and why ?…….

I’ve nothing to say to you that you don’t already know about my stance frankly

 

[davids]

I have absolutely no desire to see the U.K. assert itself as an imperial power. We’ve done that. We are just a small nation on a small island that punches above its weight and knows that the likes of Russia cannot threaten us with nukes, unless it too wishes to disappear.

He is indeed a pre-eminent political scientist whose previous views on Ukraine in the 90’s and the USA coincided with my own. However to dismiss Ukraine winning the war is a glib remark.

Meanwhile I am not debating this with him, but with you, and I would like to know what you really think and not what you are reading or watching. What do you believe and why ?…….

I'm always interested in this odd assertion that Putin would not go nuclear. Think most people would agree that he isn't a mentally stable individual.His very public executions in the UK of his perceived enemies using nerve agents and polonium show his total disregard of world opinion of his actions. His contrived inclusions of the Donbass as Russian soil means he would defend it using nuclear weapons and it appears he has put his acolytes in the positions needed to launch a nuclear strike.

 

[larrygobfiend]

It’s a war with no winners, just death, misery and destruction.

I’ve nothing to say to you that you don’t already know about my stance frankly

@peteblue has had you for breakfast here.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I'm always interested in this odd assertion that Putin would not go nuclear. Think most people would agree that he isn't a mentally stable individual.His very public executions in the UK of his perceived enemies using nerve agents and polonium show his total disregard of world opinion of his actions. His contrived inclusions of the Donbass as Russian soil means he would defend it using nuclear weapons and it appears he has put his acolytes in the positions needed to launch a nuclear strike.

I agree - if all goes to hell for him and there is a real threat that he would lose Crimea then I believe he would authorise a tactical nuclear strike on Ukranian forces. Whether his orders are carried out is another matter.

I’m hoping there a few sane voices within the Russian high command who take the view that losing a chunk of Ukraine is not worth risking WWIII. At that point a change of leadership maybe forced and it’s then a case of all sitting round a table to try and sort out his mess.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Ukrainian drone destroys Russian supersonic bomber

An image shows a Tu-22 ablaze after an attack at an air base near St Petersburg.

www.bbc.com

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Looks like Wagner have gone to free Africa now, whilst Putin continues to try and free Ukraine.

 

[Kev The Rat]

So much nonsense was spouted in the west about Prigozhin being a threat to Putin, and how he was likely to be eliminated. And yet here he is today, widening Russian influence in the global arena, no doubt with Putin's approval/direction.

Brics summit: How China's and Russia's clout is growing in Africa

China's and Russia's clout is increasing in Africa, as resentment builds towards Western nations.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Kev The Rat]

I agree - if all goes to hell for him and there is a real threat that he would lose Crimea then I believe he would authorise a tactical nuclear strike on Ukranian forces. Whether his orders are carried out is another matter.

I’m hoping there a few sane voices within the Russian high command who take the view that losing a chunk of Ukraine is not worth risking WWIII. At that point a change of leadership maybe forced and it’s then a case of all sitting round a table to try and sort out his mess.

I disagree that there would be any comeback at all from the west if a nuclear strike was launched on Ukraine, assuming by comeback we are talking about NATO strikes on Russian territory as a response. It would be an act of global suicide.

Like you though I dont think it will ever get to the point where Putin will launch a strike of that nature, primarily because there is no chance he will lose Crimea.

The only real risk of WW3 would be if Russia launched strategic nukes on DC, New York, Los Angeles.

 

[moggeridge]

Looks like Wagner have gone to free Africa now, whilst Putin continues to try and free Ukraine.

Do you think they are using it as a recruitment drive? I read an article that said Wagner had claimed he was "here to follow orders" or something along those lines...

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I disagree that there would be any comeback at all from the west if a nuclear strike was launched on Ukraine, assuming by comeback we are talking about NATO strikes on Russian territory as a response. It would be an act of global suicide.

Like you though I dont think it will ever get to the point where Putin will launch a strike of that nature, primarily because there is no chance he will lose Crimea.

The only real risk of WW3 would be if Russia launched strategic nukes on DC, New York, Los Angeles.

The response from NATO has already been defined in an official communique It would be conventional. Massive but conventional.

NATO has already warned Russia that if they go nuclear or cause a nuclear accident at ZPP then the gloves come off.

They stated that their response would be the immediate destruction of the Russian army in the Ukraine theatre of operations and the complete destruction of the Black Sea fleet.

What happens after that is the real scary bit. Do Russia lick their wounds and start talking or do they launch a nuclear attack on a NATO country (probably Poland). At which point it’s game over.

NATO is fully aware that this scenario could unfold and have spent the last 6 months training and planning for it. They know Russias red-line over Crimea, so I think that for all Zelensky’s rhetoric on re-taking Crimea it’s not a reality as the pressure from the US will dictate this doesn’t happen.

Ukraines only option is to defeat Russian forces in the south of Ukraine, isolate Crimea and at that point open negotiations for peace with Russia. The end result will probably be something like the pre-war (post 2014) borders.

Putin won’t survive long after that.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The response from NATO has already been defined in an official communique It would be conventional. Massive but conventional.

NATO has already warned Russia that if they go nuclear or cause a nuclear accident at ZPP then the gloves come off.

They stated that their response would be the immediate destruction of the Russian army in the Ukraine theatre of operations and the complete destruction of the Black Sea fleet.

What happens after that is the real scary bit. Do Russia lick their wounds and start talking or do they launch a nuclear attack on a NATO country (probably Poland). At which point it’s game over.

NATO is fully aware that this scenario could unfold and have spent the last 6 months training and planning for it. They know Russias red-line over Crimea, so I think that for all Zelensky’s rhetoric on re-taking Crimea it’s not a reality as the pressure from the US will dictate this doesn’t happen.

Ukraines only option is to defeat Russian forces in the south of Ukraine, isolate Crimea and at that point open negotiations for peace with Russia. The end result will probably be something like the pre-war (post 2014) borders.

Putin won’t survive long after that.

I think that’s a reasonable summary of what the US have told Russia - except I am not 100% convinced that they would carry through with their threats to blow up the Russian army in Ukraine. I mean, how could they even do that without killing 10s maybe even 100s of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers let alone civilians? Seems unrealistic.

And why would they risk something which as you say could end up in nuclear strikes on Poland or perhaps even further west in Europe ?

Doesn’t add up.