Current Affairs Ukraine

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Russian planes do not make incursions into U.K. airspace. They tend to observe the rules. They may fly around quite a lot but it’s a very rare occurrence, if ever, that they cross the line……
The thing with those pesky Russians is even though their aircraft are flying in international airspace, their flight path indicates that they intend to enter U.K. airspace. They also do not sqwark any call signs and therefore the QRA have to be scrambled to interdict and escort them away.

We do the same to them regularly as well up in the Barents Sea near their nuclear sub pens in Arkhangelsk.
 
Maybe one of the hawks could help me with this, but aren't we told that no one messes with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? If so, surely Russia isn't going to mess with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? Or is that all a very costly bluff because no one really wants nuclear obliteration?
 
Maybe one of the hawks could help me with this, but aren't we told that no one messes with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? If so, surely Russia isn't going to mess with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? Or is that all a very costly bluff because no one really wants nuclear obliteration?
Russian isn’t going to invade a NATO country partly due to that. However, Ukraine isn’t in NATO and that’s the key issue here; we’d not use our nuclear deterrent to protect such a country.

We’d not even going to put troops into Ukraine, so this is sabre rattling to see how far Putin can push us. Poke, prod and measure the response.
 
Maybe one of the hawks could help me with this, but aren't we told that no one messes with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? If so, surely Russia isn't going to mess with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? Or is that all a very costly bluff because no one really wants nuclear obliteration?
That's exactly right. All this Anglo-Saxon muscleflexing & even hysteria is there just to deflect attention from difficult political situations at home.

You could argue that the west wouldn't be prepared to risk total nuclear obliteration because of Estonia or even Poland, but even Putin would never take that gamble.
 
Maybe one of the hawks could help me with this, but aren't we told that no one messes with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? If so, surely Russia isn't going to mess with the west because we have a nuclear deterrent? Or is that all a very costly bluff because no one really wants nuclear obliteration?

Putin is not messing with NATO, he’s messing with a country that would like to join NATO. Our nuclear deterrent will deter. One thing is absolutely certain in that without our deterrent Putin would already be halfway across Europe. or do you believe that just allowing Russia to have nuclear weapons would make the world a safer place……
 
Putin is not messing with NATO, he’s messing with a country that would like to join NATO. Our nuclear deterrent will deter. One thing is absolutely certain in that without our deterrent Putin would already be halfway across Europe. or do you believe that just allowing Russia to have nuclear weapons would make the world a safer place……
Why don't we just say "we don't want you to invade Ukraine and if you do we will use our nuclear weapons..."? Isn't that what they're supposed to be for? I mean America et al are massing forces in the region, so they must be planning for a possible military intervention.
 
Why don't we just say "we don't want you to invade Ukraine and if you do we will use our nuclear weapons..."? Isn't that what they're supposed to be for? I mean America et al are massing forces in the region, so they must be planning for a possible military intervention.
But haven't Russia got more nuclear weapons than anyone else, including America?
 
But haven't Russia got more nuclear weapons than anyone else, including America?
Yes, then the US.
  1. Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
  2. United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
  3. China — 350 available (actively expanding nuclear arsenal)
  4. France — 290 available
  5. United Kingdom — 225 available
  6. Pakistan — 165 available
  7. India — 156 available
  8. Israel — 90 available
  9. North Korea — 40-50 available (estimated)
 
Why don't we just say "we don't want you to invade Ukraine and if you do we will use our nuclear weapons..."? Isn't that what they're supposed to be for? I mean America et al are massing forces in the region, so they must be planning for a possible military intervention.
On the point of troops, they're not really massing troops if you consider the actual size of the deployment and location. It's more of a token gesture.

We're talking about a few thousand troops in Poland, moving one thousand to Romania and NATO itself has less than five thousand in the Baltic states.

For context, there are twenty-five thousand (ish) US troops stationed in the UK alone and the actual number moving from the US and increased readiness is tiny.

I think it's more of trying to reassure states, moving certain capabilities (intelligence, perhaps) and providing a bite to the press rather than anything substantial.

In terms of nuclear weapons, I get the point about using the deterrent, but in reality saying it about Ukraine would in the long-run make their use more likely.

Without wanting to simplify the MAD theory too much, you want to have nuclear weapons to make their use more less likely; if it becomes more likely, it's failed.

To consider their use it has to meet a threshold and anything below that is dealt with in other ways.
 
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