Current Affairs Ukraine

[Noisy noise annoys]

Putin must hate Biden!

 

[Martin Alvito]

Can you flesh out why you think Ukraine’s national will is more fragile than Russia’s?

Also I think you are being a bit sanguine about a Republican House rejecting funding even with some concessions - and those concessions could be extremely bad.

Agree with the last point.

It's more fragile in the sense that it's dependent on a greater degree of popular support. Right now, Zelenskyy has it. There's no guarantee that he'll have it indefinitely.

I agree that the concessions a Republican House might try to extract could be significant, but there's no point in holding something for a ransom the other side won't pay. I think Biden can get that one done if it's a high enough priority, which I strongly suspect it is. Keep in mind that the leverage of someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene is limited to before McCarthy is installed as Speaker. After that, there aren't enough votes to remove him (since the Democrats know his removal only leads to someone worse), so the smart play from McCarthy's perspective is to ignore her and play some bipartisan ball once he's in place.

I think he's smart enough to play his cards more like Dole than like Boehner. He's been spineless because he absolutely has to be, until he is on the throne. Once they seat him, the dynamic changes...which is why Greene is as suspicious of him as she is.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Putin must hate Biden!

The feeling has been mutual for a very long time now. Biden was the principal anti-Russia voice in the Obama administration. He was a good boy for six months, then he said what he actually felt in public and got castigated pretty hard in the press for it.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

The feeling has been mutual for a very long time now. Biden was the principal anti-Russia voice in the Obama administration. He was a good boy for six months, then he said what he actually felt in public and got castigated pretty hard in the press for it.

The issue being that Biden is effectively mid-quasi war with Putin. Had he not have got so invloved, Russia would probably be in Kiev long ago. Putin cannot touch him either.

 

[LinekersLegs]

It's more fragile in the sense that it's dependent on a greater degree of popular support. Right now, Zelenskyy has it. There's no guarantee that he'll have it indefinitely.

I agree that the concessions a Republican House might try to extract could be significant, but there's no point in holding something for a ransom the other side won't pay. I think Biden can get that one done if it's a high enough priority, which I strongly suspect it is. Keep in mind that the leverage of someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene is limited to before McCarthy is installed as Speaker. After that, there aren't enough votes to remove him (since the Democrats know his removal only leads to someone worse), so the smart play from McCarthy's perspective is to ignore her and play some bipartisan ball once he's in place.

I think he's smart enough to play his cards more like Dole than like Boehner. He's been spineless because he absolutely has to be, until he is on the throne. Once they seat him, the dynamic changes...which is why Greene is as suspicious of him as she is.

You mean that because it is a democracy it is more reliant on the leader having popular support? If so I get that but believe that is outweighed by Ukrainians believing this war (regardless of who their leader) is an existential threat to their survival as a nation whereas I don’t believe that is the case for the Russians (at least not the most recent annexed territories, perhaps Crimea would be different)

We’ll have to agree to disagree on whether McCarthy is capable of growing a spine.

 

[Martin Alvito]

You mean that because it is a democracy it is more reliant on the leader having popular support? If so I get that but believe that is outweighed by Ukrainians believing this war (regardless of who their leader) is an existential threat to their survival as a nation whereas I don’t believe that is the case for the Russians (at least not the most recent annexed territories, perhaps Crimea would be different)

We’ll have to agree to disagree on whether McCarthy is capable of growing a spine.

If the proceedings turn into a WWI stalemate, eventually Zelenskyy will be the one mucking cards. It's just the nature of democracies. It's possible to maintain popular support for a war for years under the right conditions, but inevitably that support is lost if it's clear that the objectives aren't being met and will not be met.

Re: McCarthy - it's not so much growing a spine as this. We know he wants the gavel. We don't know why, but we have enough information to tell us he doesn't want it just to perpetuate the Trumpite status quo. Whatever it is he wants to get done, he will need Biden to do it. He's politically dead in a world where someone like Trump or DeSantis is in the White House, which means he has to play bipartisan ball. It's the only move he has.

 

[Big Sams Undies]

Imagine being Putin and having made the call to invade.

- What was supposed to be a display of power has managed to unite NATO like no other time since its inception
- Killed +60k of his own men (to date…)
- Lost countless pieces of military hardware that will take decades to rebuild
- Suffered unbelievable collapses on the battlefield making a laughing stock out of his military
- Make Russia a total pariah
- Make a modern day legend out of Zelensky…

Think he misread this one slightly eh?

 

[Yarrgh]

Imagine being Putin and having made the call to invade.

- What was supposed to be a display of power has managed to unite NATO like no other time since its inception
- Killed +60k of his own men (to date…)
- Lost countless pieces of military hardware that will take decades to rebuild
- Suffered unbelievable collapses on the battlefield making a laughing stock out of his military
- Make Russia a total pariah
- Make a modern day legend out of Zelensky…

Think he misread this one slightly eh?

If you could say that in Russian and be in Moscow, then you'd be taking a nosedive out the window right now.

 

[LinekersLegs]

If the proceedings turn into a WWI stalemate, eventually Zelenskyy will be the one mucking cards. It's just the nature of democracies. It's possible to maintain popular support for a war for years under the right conditions, but inevitably that support is lost if it's clear that the objectives aren't being met and will not be met.

Re: McCarthy - it's not so much growing a spine as this. We know he wants the gavel. We don't know why, but we have enough information to tell us he doesn't want it just to perpetuate the Trumpite status quo. Whatever it is he wants to get done, he will need Biden to do it. He's politically dead in a world where someone like Trump or DeSantis is in the White House, which means he has to play bipartisan ball. It's the only move he has.

I agree that after a certain amount of time not meeting objectives will erode support. However in the case you have stated, a stalemate, Russia is also not meeting objectives. The public pressure on a leader will be less (although not zero when you are talking about many people losing family), as it is not a democracy, but equally the desire to achieve the objectives will also be less - Ukrainians with family/friends/businesses/houses in the occupied territories will presumably have a much higher support for the objective being ultimately achieved than a Russian with no personal toes to the area. That is why I believe the national will for this conflict to continue until objectives are met is stronger in Ukraine than in Russia.

I also don’t think the Russian objectives are particularly clear (“deNazification“of Ukraine ? All of Ukraine or just the annexed bits? What exactly are the borders of the annexed bits - is the ownership of eg Lyman something that your average Russia cares about? Is it a wider war against Nato and Western influences as suggested by Putin’s latest speech? ).

Whereas Ukraine’s are far more concise - return to the borders of 1991. That clarity of message has its swings and roundabouts, its a lot easier to tell if not meeting objectives but equally progress is easier to determine and a simples message to convey.

Probably best if we take the House discussion to the US thread.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Imagine being Putin and having made the call to invade.

- What was supposed to be a display of power has managed to unite NATO like no other time since its inception
- Killed +60k of his own men (to date…)
- Lost countless pieces of military hardware that will take decades to rebuild
- Suffered unbelievable collapses on the battlefield making a laughing stock out of his military
- Make Russia a total pariah
- Make a modern day legend out of Zelensky…

Think he misread this one slightly eh?

Clearly, he was misled with respect to Russian military capabilities. Whether that was effectively of his own doing or not is another question.

I suspect that his take would be: better to find that one out now before getting into a direct confrontation with NATO. I don't think he much cares about the pieces on the gameboard.

 

[Big Sams Undies]

Clearly, he was misled with respect to Russian military capabilities. Whether that was effectively of his own doing or not is another question.

I suspect that his take would be: better to find that one out now before getting into a direct confrontation with NATO. I don't think he much cares about the pieces on the gameboard.

Price you pay for turning into a despot and surrounding yourself with yes-men I suppose!

 

[Martin Alvito]

I agree that after a certain amount of time not meeting objectives will erode support. However in the case you have stated, a stalemate, Russia is also not meeting objectives. The public pressure on a leader will be less, as it is not a democracy, but equally the desire to achieve the objectives will also be less - Ukrainians with family/friends/businesses/houses in the occupied territories will presumably have a much higher support for the objective being ultimately achieved than a Russian with no personal toes to the area. That is why I believe the national will of Russia for this conflict to continue until objectives are met is stronger in Ukraine than in Russia.

I also don’t think the Russian objectives are particularly clear (“deNazification“of Ukraine ? All of Ukraine or just the annexed bits? What exactly are the borders of the annexed bits - is the ownership of eg Lyman something that your average Russia cares about? Is it a wider war against Nato and Western influences as suggested by Putin’s latest speech? ).

Whereas Ukraine’s are far more concise - return to the borders of 1991. That clarity of message has its swings and roundabouts, its a lot easier to tell if not meeting objectives but equally progress is easier to determine and a simples message to convey.

Probably best if we take the House discussion to the US thread.

I suppose that what I'm saying is that Russian national will doesn't much matter until a certain threshold is crossed. One problem authoritarian regimes run into is that most things are half-hearted. The Russians and Soviets always did well historically in areas people natively have a passion for - athletic/intellectual competition, science, literature and music. Rachmaninoff was a monster, and he spent half his career under the Soviets.

They're not going to fight 'well' relative to their hardware capabilities because they don't do a lot of other things 'well'. Their NCO corps has always been rubbish, equipment goes AWOL because the officers are corrupt, and they've never had the budgets to throw at training. They fight because there's someone with a gun behind them spurring them forward, which is not the same as fighting for survival. What was surprising about the whole thing was just how hobbled they were by those structural problems.

/agree re: House discussion. It's germane, but it's not going to be of interest to most in here.

 

[Yarrgh]

Clearly, he was misled with respect to Russian military capabilities. Whether that was effectively of his own doing or not is another question.

I suspect that his take would be: better to find that one out now before getting into a direct confrontation with NATO. I don't think he much cares about the pieces on the gameboard.

I think they simply underestimated the level of support that Ukraine would receive by a monumental distance.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

I think they simply underestimated the level of support that Ukraine would receive by a monumental distance.

To be fair the complete lack of interest shown when they invaded Crimea would have informed this.

Although this is on a grander scale, I was still happily surprised by the level of support and that it has been sustained. I only hope this will be the case until Ukraine has it's country back and Russia made to pay for its evil tyranny.

 

[Yarrgh]

To be fair the complete lack of interest shown when they invaded Crimea would have informed this.

Although this is on a grander scale, I was still happily surprised by the level of support and that it has been sustained. I only hope this will be the case until Ukraine has it's country back and Russia made to pay for its evil tyranny.

True. Crimea was a surprise smash and grab and no one was ready for it.

That support still has some time to go though. Hopefully it ends non-catastrophically.