Current Affairs Ukraine

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Thought this was an interesting thread

I disagree with her on almost every point. There's an infinite set of possible outcomes at the conference table. Ukraine has an advantage in national will at the moment, but it's more fragile than Russia's. What the sides will accept as an outcome at the conference table depends upon conditions on the ground and domestic political conditions at the time. A Republican House doesn't kill Biden's ability to fund Ukraine - it just means he has to cough up some concessions he doesn't want to make in order to do it. Zugzwang is an incredibly reductive way to think about Putin's position, as there is almost always a least-worst alternative in a game with as broad a move space as international relations.
 
I disagree with her on almost every point. There's an infinite set of possible outcomes at the conference table. Ukraine has an advantage in national will at the moment, but it's more fragile than Russia's. What the sides will accept as an outcome at the conference table depends upon conditions on the ground and domestic political conditions at the time. A Republican House doesn't kill Biden's ability to fund Ukraine - it just means he has to cough up some concessions he doesn't want to make in order to do it. Zugzwang is an incredibly reductive way to think about Putin's position, as there is almost always a least-worst alternative in a game with as broad a move space as international relations.
Can you flesh out why you think Ukraine’s national will is more fragile than Russia’s?

Also I think you are being a bit sanguine about a Republican House rejecting funding even with some concessions - and those concessions could be extremely bad.

Agree with the last point.
 
Russia needs some kind of “out” so this whole thing can end. It feels ominous at the moment and nukes could be used.
Russia has an out, an obvious one they have known about for some time, and think about daily.

It involves removing Putin. What you meant to say was "Putin needs an out", but I dont think thats really needed for anyone but him.
 
Maybe it’s just what we’re being fed, but most of the Ukrainian army seem to look healthy and nourished while the Russians look scruffy and hungry. Have they just run out of money to provide the basics for their army? From the outside, it looks like they’ve completely run out of steam which is worrying considering the options left on the table for Putin.
 
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