Current Affairs Ukraine

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Im curious, how many Russian operatives, spies, submarines, and hidden special forces do you think Russia has around the world? The ones NOT in Russia, but instead in foreign and currently hostile governments lands or waters? You seem to imply you believe that number is zero.
What sort of numbers do you think it would need to mount that type of operation in Swedish waters and get away without any of the US sat systems or listening posts having a clue it had happened and where did they stage it from?
 
To be fair the submarines will be known. Not exact location but UK, US, France etc will know how many are deployed. Constant satellite images on all their bases watch their submarines leave port.

Obviously this is the same as us. They will have satellites watching our boats leaving faslane. One of Faslane’s main reasons for choice to be the port for nuclear warhead carrying boats was due to cloud cover lol.

Operatives and special forces will be harder to track and impossible to say how many but guessing pretty high.
But oddly not Ukrainian troop movements.?
 
The US just bagged an army major and a doctor at Hopkins:


If they're penetrating Hopkins, I would say their networks are pretty extensive.

TBF that one sounded more like the antics of a couple of mentally ill people than any organized thing.

Based on the Soviet past the people they probably do have in place are almost certainly going to be occupying positions where they can control via compromises - which means politics and the media, specifically political funding. It is depressing to note that no Western government has done anything to even acknowledge the idea that political funding must be cleaned up and made transparent; in fact we here in the UK have had a government appear that is largely run by a group (the IEA) about whose funding we know nothing.

Given what the government are trying to do, in the face of all sense and advice and with effects on the scale they are if it goes wrong, this should alarm far more people than it does.
 
But oddly not Ukrainian troop movements.?
One satellite taking images at a naval base seeing a large sub leave port once every few months is different to satellites taking images of enemy troop movements on the ground I suspect mate. Drones are used for this type of warfare. Drones are driven by an operator and can track easier and fly lower to get better view of troops.
 
One satellite taking images at a naval base seeing a large sub leave port once every few months is different to satellites taking images of enemy troop movements on the ground I suspect mate. Drones are used for this type of warfare. Drones are driven by an operator and can track easier and fly lower to get better view of troops.
Just odd that the US intel to Ukraine appears to be bang on but the Russian army have no clue as to what's going on under their noses. It's an interesting duality that they appear to have modern virtually silent running nuclear subs that can get special forces in position to fracture under sea pipelines but can't find a way to get rust free arms or food to their ground troops.
 
So as of three days ago we have the following.

A promise from Feb from both Biden and Neuland that Nord 2 would never be allowed to be switched on.

Nord one down and unable to supply gas until repair work was done (likely a bogus reason)

Rising pressure in Germany including protests calking for the switching on of Nord2, obviously as winter approaches those calls would have gotten louder and more widespread as the true cost starts to bite.

The Day the new pipeline from Norway to Poland starts operating, Nord1 and Nord2 blow up.

How is blowing them up in Russias interest?

Assuming Nord1 being down was to apply pressure on Germany to open Nord2, who would that serve best to no longer be an option that can happen?
 
TBF that one sounded more like the antics of a couple of mentally ill people than any organized thing.

Based on the Soviet past the people they probably do have in place are almost certainly going to be occupying positions where they can control via compromises - which means politics and the media, specifically political funding. It is depressing to note that no Western government has done anything to even acknowledge the idea that political funding must be cleaned up and made transparent; in fact we here in the UK have had a government appear that is largely run by a group (the IEA) about whose funding we know nothing.

Given what the government are trying to do, in the face of all sense and advice and with effects on the scale they are if it goes wrong, this should alarm far more people than it does.
You can get to be a doc at Hopkins if you're mentally ill, but it's hard. The view that the laws are written by buffoons and an inconvenience to medical practitioners is not an uncommon one in my experience when dealing with members of that profession, I'm afraid. Ego seems like the problem there.

The major apparently took the laws more seriously, but was willing to turn coat. That's pretty interesting for someone that was a 'first' (in this case, openly transgender officer). I would argue that anyone who is driven to be a 'first' likely has some problems (Tom Wolfe's chronicle of the foibles of the first American astronauts is quite widely known), but I would also stop well short of calling Sally Ride mentally ill.

Certainly, the Soviets had a reputation for doing it on the cheap. Sex, kompromat and ego were their stock in trade. I would agree both that the Russians are likely to commit their currency resources to politicians and the media, and that Citizens United is a terrible decision that wholly ignores the fact that campaign finance is a national security issue. There's the Russians offering to help Kennedy with information (he wisely refused), Johnny Chung during Clinton's re-election campaign...foreign governments can and will attempt to influence democratic elections, and the only reasonable solution is to impose both maximum safeguards and whistleblower protections for those with legit information.
 
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Just odd that the US intel to Ukraine appears to be bang on but the Russian army have no clue as to what's going on under their noses. It's an interesting duality that they appear to have modern virtually silent running nuclear subs that can get special forces in position to fracture under sea pipelines but can't find a way to get rust free arms or food to their ground troops.
All the gear no idea springs to mind sometimes with russia.

You can only train so much for genuine war. Good thing about being in nato and having the US as allies their is so many training exercises with lots of forces. Russia rely a lot on themselves to self train. They don’t seem to have learnt their lesson from Afghanistan.

Their under sea warfare capability of cutting cables etc is some of the most sophisticated and well trained in the world. I know for a fact we don’t train or have the capability to put mini subs in the middle of the ocean down to 600 metres deep to cut cables. The Russians do though. They have definitely overloaded resources into certain sections.
 
All the gear no idea springs to mind sometimes with russia.

You can only train so much for genuine war. Good thing about being in nato and having the US as allies their is so many training exercises with lots of forces. Russia rely a lot on themselves to self train. They don’t seem to have learnt their lesson from Afghanistan.

Their under sea warfare capability of cutting cables etc is some of the most sophisticated and well trained in the world. I know for a fact we don’t train or have the capability to put mini subs in the middle of the ocean down to 600 metres deep to cut cables. The Russians do though. They have definitely overloaded resources into certain sections.
That just seems to be how they think. Consider the Soviets' long-term dominance of chess, and their decision to corner the market in the non-revenue Olympic sports. The only description I can come up with is that, somehow, they're more concerned with appearances than reality. If they can puff up like a pufferfish, they can convince themselves that they're that big. Perhaps it's not an accident that a Russian wrote "The Cherry Orchard?"

Considering their history, it would make sense that they would both have a deep-seated problem with inferiority and choose to deal with it in such a way.
 
Just odd that the US intel to Ukraine appears to be bang on but the Russian army have no clue as to what's going on under their noses. It's an interesting duality that they appear to have modern virtually silent running nuclear subs that can get special forces in position to fracture under sea pipelines but can't find a way to get rust free arms or food to their ground troops.

TBF those are issues that often arise in wartime - all the leaders focus on the most modern systems, the ones they've spent all the money on / used to get promoted and so on. Meanwhile no (or insufficient) attention is devoted to the boring stuff like logistics, stockpiling, exercising, testing etc.

An example would be the US Navy going into WW2; they had on paper the most technologically advanced submarine torpedo (the Mark 14) in the entire world and one of the best submarine designs (the Gato class) coming down the yards in numbers. Sub commanders had been well trained, as had the crews, and the enemy in the Pacific had very little in the way of stopping them from sinking any merchant vessel they saw.

The problem was that no-one had actually tested the torpedo properly - if they had, they'd have discovered that neither of the trigger mechanisms worked properly. The magnetic one went off too early, and the contact trigger was more likely to fail the closer to 90% the hit on an enemy ship was (as in the more accurate the captain was when firing the torpedo, the less likely it was to work). This cost the submariners multiple chances to inflict severe damage on the Japanese for at least a couple of years. When it was fixed, they dealt a blow many orders of magnitude greater than what the Kriegsmarine did to us in the Atlantic.
 
I think the Russian boats are a lot more noisy and can be detected far more readily than ours. In the Cold War, we went for stealth and they played the numbers game, expecting losses.
@Dylan

Yep, pretty much. Their best now is sitting at the quieting levels of our subs built in the 80's and 90's. They are still having issues keeping things at sea, despite the sub force getting a large chunk of the available military money.
 
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