Tim Howard

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FYI to all the people banging on about how stats can be "misleading" -- it's like saying a magazine is misleading because you ate it and didn't retain any of the information. The magazine isn't misleading ... you're not supposed to eat them to absorb the information.

If you take a small sample size (or countless other errors) and try to draw conclusions from it then TBH that's as much your fault as the stats.

For this one it's a laughable small sample and that stat doesn't address quality of shots. Without a HUGE sample to flatten out shot quality (over time you'd expect every keeper to face a fairly similar array of shots but over 30-60 shots you could easily face a significantly higher percentage of weak shots meaning it's silly to even look at it right now). Not to mention any time he fails to come off his line it's creating a chance which may not be converted to a shot but is still an error. There must be better stats out there for keepers (although any is going to be weak this early in the season).

I'm not a stat hater but at this point it's reasonable to say "trust your eyes" rather then stats.

Stats are no more misleading than words (arguably less so) but if I make my argument using words rarely does anyone say "yeah but you used words to describe the problem and words can't be trusted."

Men lie. Women lie. etc.
 
njligernj said:
FYI to all the people banging on about how stats can be "misleading" -- it's like saying a magazine is misleading because you ate it and didn't retain any of the information. The magazine isn't misleading ... you're not supposed to eat them to absorb the information.

If you take a small sample size (or countless other errors) and try to draw conclusions from it then TBH that's as much your fault as the stats.

For this one it's a laughable small sample and that stat doesn't address quality of shots. Without a HUGE sample to flatten out shot quality (over time you'd expect every keeper to face a fairly similar array of shots but over 30-60 shots you could easily face a significantly higher percentage of weak shots meaning it's silly to even look at it right now). Not to mention any time he fails to come off his line it's creating a chance which may not be converted to a shot but is still an error. There must be better stats out there for keepers (although any is going to be weak this early in the season).

I'm not a stat hater but at this point it's reasonable to say "trust your eyes" rather then stats.

Stats are no more misleading than words (arguably less so) but if I make my argument using words rarely does anyone say "yeah but you used words to describe the problem and words can't be trusted."

Men lie. Women lie. etc.
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Any stats on corners of him coming to collect the ball?
Every time we concede a corner it's like a free kick just outside the penalty area, No organisation by him, he just shuts his eyes to not compete for a ball in the six yard box makes me feel he is scared, The Derby goal was disgraceful schoolboy error - maybe he has been hurt in the past coming out for a cross in training, but he's should have been dropped last Sunday - RM imo,made a big mistake not resting him!
 

Whether or not teams are targeting him, whether or not he's making silly mistakes, whether or not he's not claiming crosses, he's still only conceded fifteen goals while playing behind a mostly inexperienced back line. Like I've said before, I don't care in the slightest how a goalkeeper looks when he's playing. I care whether or not he prevents goals, and while Howard isn't the best in the league at it, he's right in the middle of the pack of Premier League keepers. Now, I don't think that's good enough for us going forward, and at his age we should definitely be replacing him sooner rather than later, but the vitriol directed towards him around here is just ridiculous.
 
mlyons said:
Whether or not teams are targeting him, whether or not he's making silly mistakes, whether or not he's not claiming crosses, he's still only conceded fifteen goals while playing behind a mostly inexperienced back line. Like I've said before, I don't care in the slightest how a goalkeeper looks when he's playing. I care whether or not he prevents goals, and while Howard isn't the best in the league at it, he's right in the middle of the pack of Premier League keepers. Now, I don't think that's good enough for us going forward, and at his age we should definitely be replacing him sooner rather than later, but the vitriol directed towards him around here is just ridiculous.
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That was ok till the last sentence hope he keeps goal well tomorrow!
 
carolinablue232 said:
Fair enough. The point I'm making is that people say we'd be X amount of points better based on every mistake he makes. There's no such thing as a keeper that won't make mistakes that "cost points" somewhere. Saying Howard made 5 mistakes, and that cost us 15 points is silly. Maybe those 5 mistakes cost us 6 points because Cech would only make 3 mistakes. Saying every mistake Howard makes costs us places in the table is assuming we'd have a perfect replacement who did everything positive Howard did and also made zero mistakes that Howard did or didn't.

He's average is what he is now, and he should be replaced. However, people need to stop thinking perfection exists when it so very clearly doesn't. Perhaps when you face more shots, you're going to make more mistakes. Law of averages and what not.
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It's really nothing to do with the amount of shots he faces! As a shot stopper he's still just about ok, the big problem he has and it has cost us 4 goals in recent matches against West Brom, Liverpool and Arsenal is that he stays rooted to his line when a ball is crossed into what should be "his" six yard box, or alternatively comes out flapping at it with his eyes closed!
Andy Carroll will be licking his lips at the thought of a couple of decent balls into our six yard box this afternoon!
 

bcblue1878 said:
is that he stays rooted to his line when a ball is crossed into what should be "his" six yard box, or alternatively comes out flapping at it with his eyes closed
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Other defects include: poor distribution, hitting the turf too early thereby allowing the attacker easy shots, coming out to block with his feet, a sense of entitlement, poor self-critical analysis and closing his eyes when the other big boys kick the ball too hard.
 
mlyons said:
Whether or not teams are targeting him, whether or not he's making silly mistakes, whether or not he's not claiming crosses, he's still only conceded fifteen goals while playing behind a mostly inexperienced back line. Like I've said before, I don't care in the slightest how a goalkeeper looks when he's playing. I care whether or not he prevents goals, and while Howard isn't the best in the league at it, he's right in the middle of the pack of Premier League keepers. Now, I don't think that's good enough for us going forward, and at his age we should definitely be replacing him sooner rather than later, but the vitriol directed towards him around here is just ridiculous.
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I'd agree how many we concede is key but there are plenty of factors behind that. We have a lot of possession and two midfielders whose main focus is protecting the back four.
Howard is our most senior player and at the moment he is making our young players nervous. Confidence in going forward stems from someone commanding the area at the back and taking responsibility. He scores very poorly on these counts and a new keeper who can organise and take the weight off our back four is more urgent than anything else. Has been for a couple of years
 
@tommye told me Howard is probably poor at his job because he's American and they don't really understand football properly. That is without doubt an interesting theory.
 
When I have no internet access on match day rather than going straight to the BBC for the score I play a game,I log on to the forum and look at the current threads getting the most traffic to see if I can guess the result by what is being posted, and if it's this one,my heart sinks.
 

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