Current Affairs The UK/EU thread....

[Bruce Wayne]

Of course when we leave the EU it will no longer be the biggest market in the world, that will now become the USA, with whom we will immediately do a deal. We will still do a deal with the EU, but will be free to do many more deals quickly with other countries. We will also retain the trade deals already set up by the EU to which we are sovereign signatories. The overall picture is that we will end up with a much bigger trading base.

The economy will do just fine.....

Pete, where do you get this confidence from? TTIP, for instance, was over 10 years in the making before Trump squashed it, and there was much in that agreement that people were unhappy with (rightly or wrongly). Add to that Trump boasts at every opportunity that it's America first, so I'm not sure how we can really believe that a) a deal will be done quickly (as trade deals just aren't - ever), and b) that it will be better for us than the one Trump scrapped.

This is the kind of thing that so frustrates people, as it's a level of gungho optimism that has absolutely zero basis in historical fact. Yet despite such things never having happened at all in the past, people seem adamant that they will happen in the future with bells on.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

The EU will not be 'making an example' of the UK, because quite simply when we leave the U.K. will be their largest export market. For all the bluster coming out of the EU they know that they need to trade with the uk on sensible terms, they know that they still require our financial expertise and our defence capabilities. We have quite a few desirable attributes.

The financial sector may well open small offices if needed in Ireland but there will be no mass transfer to places such as Frankfurt etc. There is far more to financial services than just banks and money, there is also the availability of access to legal firms, the oversight of financial transactions, local taxation (think Paris) and language......it ain't going to happen....

That logic ignores the fact that of the 27 nations there are plenty who rely on the UK for next to nothing in terms of trade.

Ultimately all 27 have to agree to the terms and whilst the Germans and French might be more eager to agree favourable terms, there's plenty who won't give a knack and won't want to see the UK potentially benefit from leaving the EU. That's before you factor in the simple politics of it, how can the UK leave, ignore the 4 pillars and still have the virtual equivalent of single market access only without paying a bean for the privilege?

That simply isn't going to happen.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Pete, where do you get this confidence from? TTIP, for instance, was over 10 years in the making before Trump squashed it, and there was much in that agreement that people were unhappy with (rightly or wrongly). Add to that Trump boasts at every opportunity that it's America first, so I'm not sure how we can really believe that a) a deal will be done quickly (as trade deals just aren't - ever), and b) that it will be better for us than the one Trump scrapped.

This is the kind of thing that so frustrates people, as it's a level of gungho optimism that has absolutely zero basis in historical fact. Yet despite such things never having happened at all in the past, people seem adamant that they will happen in the future with bells on.

The idea that we're going to capable of agreeing multiple trade deals simultaneously and within a short time frame is delusional.

We haven't even managed to add the desired resource required to fulfil the Brexit negotiations team, so where are all of these highly skilled trade deal negotiation specialists going to come from?

As for the US, Trump's entire message is 'Put America First' the idea that he's going to agree a favourable trade deal with the UK in double quick time is also a La La Land notion

 

[Bruce Wayne]

The idea that we're going to capable of agreeing multiple trade deals simultaneously and within a short time frame is delusional.

We haven't even managed to add the desired resource required to fulfil the Brexit negotiations team, so where are all of these highly skilled trade deal negotiation specialists going to come from?

As for the US, Trump's entire message is 'Put America First' the idea that he's going to agree a favourable trade deal with the UK in double quick time is also a La La Land notion

We may be surprised and it'll happen, but the apparent confidence that we will surpass all historical attempts with certainty is one I don't really get.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

We may be surprised and it'll happen, but the apparent confidence that we will surpass all historical attempts with certainty is one I don't really get.

It's based on nothing but 'think positive'. It's therefore just a meaningless soundbite to go with the numerous others that surround this debacle.

History tells us that these deals take years to conclude due to their immense complexity, but a clown like Farage comes out and says it can be done, and all of a sudden it's possible. A man who has zero experience of negotiating deals of this nature.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

It's based on nothing but 'think positive'. It's therefore just a meaningless soundbite to go with the numerous others that surround this debacle.

History tells us that these deals take years to conclude due to their immense complexity, but a clown like Farage comes out and says it can be done, and all of a sudden it's possible. A man who has zero experience of negotiating deals of this nature.

I kinda hoped that a positive to come out of the Trump administration would have been a bit of a reality check that this kind of rhetoric has little real chance of materialising, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I kinda hoped that a positive to come out of the Trump administration would have been a bit of a reality check that this kind of rhetoric has little real chance of materialising, but that hasn't happened yet.

It's not only the timeframes, it's also the quality of the deals that's being sold to the populous as being the inevitable outcome.

We'll be on the back foot with every nation we get around the table with, as they all know that we need quick deals in order to try and plug the inevitable massive hole in our EU exports that Brexit will deliver. So our desperation both in terms of time and necessity hardly leaves us holding the aces in these discussions. They take years for a reason and they'll continue to take years for the very same reasons.

 

[peteblue]

That logic ignores the fact that of the 27 nations there are plenty who rely on the UK for next to nothing in terms of trade.

Ultimately all 27 have to agree to the terms and whilst the Germans and French might be more eager to agree favourable terms, there's plenty who won't give a knack and won't want to see the UK potentially benefit from leaving the EU. That's before you factor in the simple politics of it, how can the UK leave, ignore the 4 pillars and still have the virtual equivalent of single market access only without paying a bean for the privilege?

That simply isn't going to happen.

I agree that not everyone may be dependent upon the UK for trade, but many of them are dependent upon access to investment, defence and security.....I think the 27 will have to have many disagreement and arguments, but unless Germany decides it does not want a trade relationship with the UK then a deal will be done....

 

[peteblue]

Pete, where do you get this confidence from? TTIP, for instance, was over 10 years in the making before Trump squashed it, and there was much in that agreement that people were unhappy with (rightly or wrongly). Add to that Trump boasts at every opportunity that it's America first, so I'm not sure how we can really believe that a) a deal will be done quickly (as trade deals just aren't - ever), and b) that it will be better for us than the one Trump scrapped.

This is the kind of thing that so frustrates people, as it's a level of gungho optimism that has absolutely zero basis in historical fact. Yet despite such things never having happened at all in the past, people seem adamant that they will happen in the future with bells on.

You are right Bruce, nothing is a done deal. But why do you think TTIP took over 10 years ? Could it possibly have anything to do with 28 nations plus the USA having to agree, notwithstanding the 4 or whatever number of regions in Belgium. The EU is dysfunctional. A trade deal between the USA and the U.K. will be far easier to negotiate between two countries that trust each other (5 eyes) and act as one on many issues. We have to put the mindset of the EU behind us and start behaving like an independent trading nation again.....

There is a level of optimism and there should be optimism. Obviously there will be difficulties, but we will not have to get 27 other countries to agree......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I agree that not everyone may be dependent upon the UK for trade, but many of them are dependent upon access to investment, defence and security.....I think the 27 will have to have many disagreement and arguments, but unless Germany decides it does not want a trade relationship with the UK then a deal will be done....

To be fair Pete, I'm not sure anyone disagrees, but there seems considerable doubt over both the terms of that agreement and the timescale of it. It seems very unlikely that we'll get the same terms outside the single market as we had in it. That seems inevitable, so there will surely be a degree of horse trading, with certain politically sensitive industries getting good deals, and others that aren't so sensitive suffering.

There will also be considerable work into non-tariff factors, such as data regulations, privacy, patent protection, food standards and the various other things that are involved in the single market and will be discussed. I don't know quite how sovereignty folk feel about that, but it seems inevitable (and eminently sensible).

With regards to the timescale, you could argue that we try and keep as much of what we enjoy in the single market as possible, and thus shorten the negotiation period. That's possible, but by no means guaranteed. We have to consider that the deal between the EU and Canada took ~ 10 years, so it's by no means certain that we'll have a deal agreed within the 2 year period.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

You are right Bruce, nothing is a done deal. But why do you think TTIP took over 10 years ? Could it possibly have anything to do with 28 nations plus the USA having to agree, notwithstanding the 4 or whatever number of regions in Belgium. The EU is dysfunctional. A trade deal between the USA and the U.K. will be far easier to negotiate between two countries that trust each other (5 eyes) and act as one on many issues. We have to put the mindset of the EU behind us and start behaving like an independent trading nation again.....

There is a level of optimism and there should be optimism. Obviously there will be difficulties, but we will not have to get 27 other countries to agree......

That's rather common though Pete. Have a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements and scan through bilateral deals between two countries of similar size to ourselves.

Australia - China deal took 9 years. New Zealand - China took 5 years. Canada - South Korea took 9 years. I imagine things get more complicated the more developed trade is between two nations.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

You are right Bruce, nothing is a done deal. But why do you think TTIP took over 10 years ? Could it possibly have anything to do with 28 nations plus the USA having to agree, notwithstanding the 4 or whatever number of regions in Belgium. The EU is dysfunctional. A trade deal between the USA and the U.K. will be far easier to negotiate between two countries that trust each other (5 eyes) and act as one on many issues. We have to put the mindset of the EU behind us and start behaving like an independent trading nation again.....

There is a level of optimism and there should be optimism. Obviously there will be difficulties, but we will not have to get 27 other countries to agree......

But that flaws the theory that Brexit could be completed with the 2 year deadline though, as the same applies to us, only it's worse.

As trade deals are usually carried out under the premise of mutual gain, both sides want a deal, both sides are eager to agree a deal, and yet they still take forever.

Brexit is unique, as it's the first ever trade negotiation where the end result will be a trade deal that is notably worse for both sides come the conclusion, as it's the result of a divorce. Divorce agreements are seldom amicable.

 

[peteblue]

To be fair Pete, I'm not sure anyone disagrees, but there seems considerable doubt over both the terms of that agreement and the timescale of it. It seems very unlikely that we'll get the same terms outside the single market as we had in it. That seems inevitable, so there will surely be a degree of horse trading, with certain politically sensitive industries getting good deals, and others that aren't so sensitive suffering.

There will also be considerable work into non-tariff factors, such as data regulations, privacy, patent protection, food standards and the various other things that are involved in the single market and will be discussed. I don't know quite how sovereignty folk feel about that, but it seems inevitable (and eminently sensible).

With regards to the timescale, you could argue that we try and keep as much of what we enjoy in the single market as possible, and thus shorten the negotiation period. That's possible, but by no means guaranteed. We have to consider that the deal between the EU and Canada took ~ 10 years, so it's by no means certain that we'll have a deal agreed within the 2 year period.

There is loads to do, but comparisons with Canada are not relevant. We are currently part of and trading within the EU, we have the laws and standards in place and as a result it should be much easier to put a workable deal in place. There may well have to be transitional arrangements for some issues, but it's all doable.

In respect of terms in dealing with the EU, people keep forgetting it's a two way street. Politically the EU will want to portray any deal as being worse for the UK to its peoples, but the reality will almost certainly be different, otherwise we will suffer with worse terms and EU countries will suffer from worse terms. It's their choice really......

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Anyway, for all the posturing on this side of the Channel, here's the view from Brussels;


The European Parliament makes clear that:

• The UK will not be given even similar benefits as being in the single market and customs union, let alone the exact same benefits, as had been promised.
• The UK is unable to start negotiating trade deals with non-EU countries in advance of its withdrawal.
• Parallelism is out: substantial progress has to be made on the withdrawal agreement before talks can start on transition or future trade, and a future trade deal can only be agreed once the withdrawal agreement is agreed
• The EU expects a financial payment as part of the withdrawal agreement.
• A future trade deal would need to include equivalence in key areas including competition, trade and social policy, which means a bonfire of regulations is incompatible with a new UK-EU FTA.
• There will be no sectoral deals that replicate the exact same benefits as being in the single market and customs union
• There could be a transitional deal, but for a maximum of three years, during which period the ECJ would have legal authority.

 

[peteblue]

That's rather common though Pete. Have a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements and scan through bilateral deals between two countries of similar size to ourselves.

Australia - China deal took 9 years. New Zealand - China took 5 years. Canada - South Korea took 9 years. I imagine things get more complicated the more developed trade is between two nations.

It gets more complicated with the more restrictions placed upon a deal, dumping of products etc etc. If however there is already trust between two countries and you start from the premise of free trade, the obstacles needing to be negotiated reduce dramatically and it's this which takes up the time....