Current Affairs The UK/EU thread....

[Eggs]

Don't they know who we are? Hopefully Davies will march in singing '2 world wars, 1 world cup'. That'll show 'em.

...well he is ex-SAS.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

...well he is ex-SAS.

Grammar school lad too. No wonder @peteblue likes him.

 

[davmaher]

...I wonder if these negotiations need independent arbitration. I have no idea that might be, but I expect the amount each side think the 'divorce settlement' should be will vastly different. It will need some form of defined calculation formula.

The Times reported yesterday that Breugel, an independent, Brussels based economic think tank, has already done some analysis on this and they believe the final settlement will be around 35.7 billion Euros. They have looked at 12 different scenarios taking different factors into account and the exit bill for the UK ranges from 69 billion Euros to 25.4 billion Euros. Juncker has quoted an exit bill of 60 billion Euros. Apparently they are well thought of by the European Commission and their numbers may be used as a starting point for the negotiations.

 

[JonS]

Should be quite straight forward I'd have thought, as the 'divorce settlement' is merely honouring agreements already made. Providing that claim is a legal one to make, then it seems pretty straight forward.

I think it may be anything but straightforward. Like a very complicated marital divorce one person (or countries) opinion against another with objective quantification of financial and other details hard to do.

Some people will say that's what we get for leaving the EU

I say that's what we get for not leaving or having a referendum on leaving many years earlier before the enmeshment got too great...

 

[peteblue]

Don't they know who we are? Hopefully Davies will march in singing '2 world wars, 1 world cup'. That'll show 'em.

I hope he goes in with the same friendly approach we have been seeing at Westminster ( and I admit I'm not one of his biggest fans but he has been reasonably impressive) then as both sides attempt to agree the process, oversight, timetable, workstreams and running order etc he should enthusiastically agree to do the EU/UK nationals bit and the NI/Ireland border bit immediately. Which both sides can agree on and neither will wish to be seen obstructing. When they raise the £50Bn tell them very plainly there will be no discussion on any exit monetary claim or process until it's agreed that our future trade relationships commence in parallel. When they refuse, as they will, he should just get up and leave.....

 

[peteblue]

The Times reported yesterday that Breugel, an independent, Brussels based economic think tank, has already done some analysis on this and they believe the final settlement will be around 35.7 billion Euros. They have looked at 12 different scenarios taking different factors into account and the exit bill for the UK ranges from 69 billion Euros to 25.4 billion Euros. Juncker has quoted an exit bill of 60 billion Euros. Apparently they are well thought of by the European Commission and their numbers may be used as a starting point for the negotiations.

It all depends over what period they include. They will have to agree a process and principles for inclusion. This is what will take the time and negotiation. After that it's just number crunching and political trade offs.....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I think it may be anything but straightforward. Like a very complicated marital divorce one person (or countries) opinion against another with objective quantification of financial and other details hard to do.

Some people will say that's what we get for leaving the EU

I say that's what we get for not leaving or having a referendum on leaving many years earlier before the enmeshment got too great...

That's the nature of trade deals though. It's easy to think that modern trade deals are just about financial tariffs, but in reality there is usually considerably more in them that is non-tariff related around standards and so on, and these are eminently sensible.

What's more, if we manage to strike a deal with the EU on a trade deal, then that trade deal will be refereed by someone, and that will in all likelihood be the European Courts of Justice. It makes the whole sovereignty thing so very silly.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I hope he goes in with the same friendly approach we have been seeing at Westminster ( and I admit I'm not one of his biggest fans but he has been reasonably impressive) then as both sides attempt to agree the process, oversight, timetable, workstreams and running order etc he should enthusiastically agree to do the EU/UK nationals bit and the NI/Ireland border bit immediately. Which both sides can agree on and neither will wish to be seen obstructing. When they raise the £50Bn tell them very plainly there will be no discussion on any exit monetary claim or process until it's agreed that our future trade relationships commence in parallel. When they refuse, as they will, he should just get up and leave.....

So we'd not only have no trade deal when we leave, but we'd also have developed a reputation for not honouring our commitments? And lets be clear on what this really means. For instance, it could be EU-funded projects taking place in the UK or the pensions obligations of UK nationals. These are all things that the UK has already agreed to pay. To then turn around and not pay them would be a great way to then enter into trade negotiations with other countries and try and convince them that we're honest and professional.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Suffice to say, we'll also have to negotiate replacement deals with the 53 countries around the world who have one with the EU. Sure will be a busy time for an understaffed civil service. I hope that won't take money away from the NHS et al.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

When they raise the £50Bn tell them very plainly there will be no discussion on any exit monetary claim or process until it's agreed that our future trade relationships commence in parallel. When they refuse, as they will, he should just get up and leave.....

Utterly ludicrous and that kind of gung ho nonsense would leave this country in complete turmoil.

We have to fulfil the financial commitments we've already made, and its absolutely right that we do so. The exact figure and what contras are made against the final bill is down to the negotiators, accountants and lawyers to arrive at. But we should pay what's due and we will.

 

[peteblue]

So we'd not only have no trade deal when we leave, but we'd also have developed a reputation for not honouring our commitments? And lets be clear on what this really means. For instance, it could be EU-funded projects taking place in the UK or the pensions obligations of UK nationals. These are all things that the UK has already agreed to pay. To then turn around and not pay them would be a great way to then enter into trade negotiations with other countries and try and convince them that we're honest and professional.

No it would be a great way of saying you don't hold all the cards......

 

[peteblue]

Utterly ludicrous and that kind of gung ho nonsense would leave this country in complete turmoil.

We have to fulfil the financial commitments we've already made, and its absolutely right that we do so. The exact figure and what contras are made against the final bill is down to the negotiators, accountants and lawyers to arrive at. But we should pay what's due and we will.

No one said we shouldn't. But if we are going to pay out large sums of money we should ensure that our future relationship is also discussed at the same time, that's what article 50 is about, and if you hold the money then it's a negotiating strength. We could do what you want and just cave in of course......

 

[peteblue]

Suffice to say, we'll also have to negotiate replacement deals with the 53 countries around the world who have one with the EU. Sure will be a busy time for an understaffed civil service. I hope that won't take money away from the NHS et al.

No we don't Bruce. We are already signatories to those agreements. They were negotiated by the EU on our behalf but agreed between each and every nation of the EU. There is no such thing as an EU country....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

No we don't Bruce. We are already signatories to those agreements. They were negotiated by the EU on our behalf but agreed between each and every nation of the EU. There is no such thing as an EU country....

Fairly sure they are null and void, but am happy to be pointed in the direction of somewhere official that says otherwise.

 

[peteblue]

Fairly sure they are null and void, but am happy to be pointed in the direction of somewhere official that says otherwise.

The agreements have the signature of the target country and the U.K. We have signed agreements. Perhaps you could point me to some point of law that negates a contract.....if the UK signature is null and void then so is the agreement from the rest of the EU....either we all have an agreement or no one has.....that's contract law.....