Current Affairs The next Tory (strong and stable) leader is Boris Johnson
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summerisle
The rain, it raineth every day
*Johnson.
Personally, not as confident as other labour supporters on here and think Johnson would win any election with an increased majority. That’s if he’s not forced out beforehand. Mind I did think labour were about to be obliterated in the last election.
Alan Whittle
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Extraordinary since the competition is quite so fierce...
davek
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They have to demolish almost completely the Brexit Party. There's no other way for the Tories. They cant and wont do a deal with Farage's party as it will give a party on the right a foothold in British politics, so they have to sweep up all the pro-hard brexit votes. That means battering the Brexit party down to about 5%, so they have limited impact on Tory candidates.
I just dont see it. Even when / if the Johnson deal is rejected and the Tories go for a crash out, I still see a Brexit Party getting above 10% in a situation where an extension is forced on the Tories.
That extension would underline Johnson's weaknesses and the GE will look a whole lot different than if Johnson either secured a deal or crashed the UK out.
Labour's path to victory is:
EU reject Johnson deal --> Johnson declares no deal a reality --> VONC by opposition to secure the extension --> fight Johnson on his failures with the Brexit Party piling in on Johnson too.
That's not implausible, but remember that UKIP got 12% of the vote in the 2015 General Election and the Conservatives still won.
davek
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That was with a collapse of the LibDem vote down to less than 8%. That wont happen this time. UKIP cratered the LP, the LD vote didn't trouble the Tories.
NilSatisOptimum
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Not really, when funded local services will develop their own strategies regardless of legislation, hence the term, postcode lottery...
Still with Tories now badmouthing all MPs, it's typical behaviour when their party is well and truly on the rocks, just like a spoilt child losing in a board game they try and upturn gaming area. Because they don't want to play anymore.
There's a lot in that Dave. The first point is an important one, in 2017 they got UKIP down to less than 2% and this was not enough to win an outright majority. You imagine UKIP continue to bum around at about 1-2%. You then throw in 5% for the BXP (which is very much best case scenario for Johnson) and that is already quite a hit for him. Thats 3-4% in all likelihood he has to win back from Labour just to stand still.
Alongside this he will not be standing still. He will lose at least 40 Seats to the Lib Dems and 10 to the SNP. While the media are lapping up the Lib Dem revival as awful for Labour the real victims are the Conservatives. 80 of the Lib fems top 98 target are Conservative seats. On a standard swing model they are at about 60 Seats to win back off Johnson currently, however the implied swing (given most of these seats are remain) it could well be they lose 80+ of these seats (particularly if Johnson continues to push for a hard Brexit).
Jo Swinson understands this too, she is now targeting the Tory vote. This is why she won't put Corbyn in. This is why she is attacking the Tories from the right on fiscal policy. Whatever one thinks of Swinson it's an astute move.
I saw some god awful woman at tory conference go to Owen Jones that all they need is a pact with the BXP and "you'll all be annihilated". This is like a mixture of crack and fairy tales for the tory party faithful. It's completely untrue but a highly addictive myth. The idea that all they have to do is tame Farage and they win. The BXP currently have 0 seats. They win 0 seats by beating the BXP. They are alienating anywhere from 50-100 seats in the process.
Aside from that, the reality is a formal pact would spell the end of the Conservatives as a national institution (which matters to people) and tar the BXP with the toxic Conservative brand across the north. In short both parties would be damaged by this relationship. Again contrary to what standard pollsters are grasping, all evidence is suggesting the BXP is polling well in southern leave seats but less well in Northern leave seats.
I am not sure they win many Seats off Conservatives, but they provide a nuisance factor and where an MP exists who is not Brexit enough (see Amber Rudd before she moved) they will likely cause them to lose a seat.
This is what the data beneath the polls shows us. Piling votes up in Conservative leave areas (which seems to be what they are achieving) looks foolish to me. It adds no value. The continual attacks on Labour, plus inheritance cuts (which is an issue in the south not the midlands North) will cement this problem.
As for the election, I maintain Johnson comes apart during the election campaign. He is not suited to an electoral campaign at all. He doesn't speak in PR soundbites. He is awkward and weird around people. What was once a bit slapstick and jokey now looks insulting and lazy. I like Pete but to me he's wide of the mark with this one. Johnson will also take enormous risks he can't back up.
As for Labour it's not going to be easy. The method you describe enough works fine, but anticipate Johnson trying to resign (AS PM) to wind the clock down. Thats where we are at though, I suspect Bercow sends the letter to the EU asking for the extension. There will be legal challenges, but I think it's fair to say the Queen is pretty unimpressed with Johnson's arrogance and antics, so I can't imagine the British state will look favourably on them.
That election was the single best achievement the Conservative Party has had in 30+ years. Cameron and Osbourne are on another level to Johnson and his ilk. They were winning the economic argument too, which they have now lost.
What they did was cannibalise the Lib Dems seats. It was ruthless and efficient. They lost vote share but targeted an effective message.
Those Conservative Seats they won from the Lib Dems are all going back. If you see my post above I give an evaluation of how that will happen. At the cautious end you are looking at 40 seats (plus 10 to the SNP). At the more pessimistic end you could be looking at upwards of 100 (depending on how solid the Lib Dem bounce is) and how committed they to a strategy of winning Conservative remain seats.
You want a good bet at the next election, find whatever bookies are offering on Lib Dem Seats and back over. They will translate votes into seats very well.
Suffice to say, it's very hard to see them pulling off the number of seats from Labour constituencies they require to stand still on the above cautious protection. They either have to win Remain seats currently Labour, or they have to start winning in big cities like Manchester. Very hard to see either.
Charlie Sweet
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Rory Stewart stepping down.
Begs the question what sort of Tory party will be left standing in 6 months time.
Begs the question what sort of Tory party will be left standing in 6 months time.
What they are now - UKIP 2.
not on your own fear they will win myself, Johnson is a loose cannon though so who knows , at the moment all the scrutiny is on the Tories so it looks not to good for them , but they still lead the polls ?
When the press get stuck into labour and the libs and they will it could swing even further.towards the tories.
larrygobfiend
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A "scouse" Thatcher fan. Pass me the sick bucket.....
davek
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Interesting post mate. There's a lot to chew on there.
I completely agree that the current polling is froth and that we need to drill down consttituncy by constitunecy in order to get a clearer picture (Lord Ashcroft usually does this well, but I dont think he's got to this stage yet).
As you say, Johnson is not someone you want let loose for too long in an election, as he's poor on detail and goes wildly off message discipline. He;s incoherent and woolly, and that'll cost the Tories over a 4 week campaign. Over and above that, what we haven't seen (but will see in an election) is what the prospect of another 5 years of Tory government will do in terms of people voting with their social class in mind rather than Brexit position. Johnson/Cummings have tried to anticipate that, but despite all the spending promises, the vasy majority of people will not trust any Tory to deliver on it. More thsn that though, the Tories will choose to fight the election on traditional Labour territory of infrastructure investment, housing and the NHS. I believe over and above Brexit that'll be the key battleground. People will realsie this is not a referendum but a 5 year government they're electing.
As said, I dont expect a LP victory with a majority; I do expect though a hung parliament - and that in this climate will look like victory.
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