Current Affairs The next Tory (strong and stable) leader is Boris Johnson

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davek said:
Interesting post mate. There's a lot to chew on there.

I completely agree that the current polling is froth and that we need to drill down consttituncy by constitunecy in order to get a clearer picture (Lord Ashcroft usually does this well, but I dont think he's got to this stage yet).

As you say, Johnson is not someone you want let loose for too long in an election, as he's poor on detail and goes wildly off message discipline. He;s incoherent and woolly, and that'll cost the Tories over a 4 week campaign. Over and above that, what we haven't seen (but will see in an election) is what the prospect of another 5 years of Tory government will do in terms of people voting with their social class in mind rather than Brexit position. Johnson/Cummings have tried to anticipate that, but despite all the spending promises, the vasy majority of people will not trust any Tory to deliver on it. More thsn that though, the Tories will choose to fight the election on traditional Labour territory of infrastructure investment, housing and the NHS. I believe over and above Brexit that'll be the key battleground. People will realsie this is not a referendum but a 5 year government they're electing.

As said, I dont expect a LP victory with a majority; I do expect though a hung parliament - and that in this climate will look like victory.
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There’s two issues here, firstly polling being a fair bit out and secondly how an election campaign pans out. What unites them is that both present challenges for Johnson.

I have gone into some detail on the first about how it plays out constituency to constituency. In essence our election is not a single event, but 650+ local elections all at once. Increasingly now you are not looking at an event where a singular swing works. You are also at an event whereby if you can build a strong defensive cluster (say a range of seats where you get 35+%) you are going to hold lots of seats with votes being split. Labour have a significant number of seats where there remains a tribal loyalty.

As I’ve indicated above, I suspect the cons are banking support in the wrong areas. Ashcroft polls will certainly help show it, but you can look at supplementary data (age, class, gender and geographic area) in the breakdown to begin to build a picture. The key damage to Conservatives is Labour leavers not switching. It’s fine saying leavers will vote Con, but unless they get Labour leavers it’s a big problem.

As for the campaign itself Johnson is all wrong for the Conservatives and all wrong for the situation they find themselves in. When May tried to play a d rate Boudicia she was found out. Johnson will not have her natural cowardice and caution though and get himself into all sorts of scrapes.

The sensible people around May advised her against an election in 2017. They pointed out the triumphantalism of right wing voices, egged on by Editors of newspapers and algorithmically dubious polls were nowhere near as secure as they first felt. There’s a reason why Crosby resigned half way through the campaign and advised her against an early election. In as far as any lead really exists it is shallow.

People still bang on about “shy tory” voters but I think we now have a lot of “shy Labour” voters. Corbyn has been vilified, and you are accused of a whole range of ludicrous crimes for suggesting support of him. You’re accused of being a Nazi, an anti-Semite, sexist, homophobic, pro terrorist etc. None of these things are in the least bit true and I’d say a lot of decent people just don’t admit to being a Labour supporter. This rather washes over the heads of pollsters though, who are stuck in their self important bubble.

As a final point, it could well be the main beneficiaries from the language used from Johnson after October 31st will be the Brexit Party. He may end up just pushing people beyond even the Conservatives. It’s by no means a certainty but it’s a very live possibility. If your whole pitch is to get Brexit done and you don’t I’m sure a section of people will feel betrayed. The question will be how much traction does that sentiment gain.
 
catcherintherye said:
There’s two issues here, firstly polling being a fair bit out and secondly how an election campaign pans out. What unites them is that both present challenges for Johnson.

I have gone into some detail on the first about how it plays out constituency to constituency. In essence our election is not a single event, but 650+ local elections all at once. Increasingly now you are not looking at an event where a singular swing works. You are also at an event whereby if you can build a strong defensive cluster (say a range of seats where you get 35+%) you are going to hold lots of seats with votes being split. Labour have a significant number of seats where there remains a tribal loyalty.

As I’ve indicated above, I suspect the cons are banking support in the wrong areas. Ashcroft polls will certainly help show it, but you can look at supplementary data (age, class, gender and geographic area) in the breakdown to begin to build a picture. The key damage to Conservatives is Labour leavers not switching. It’s fine saying leavers will vote Con, but unless they get Labour leavers it’s a big problem.

As for the campaign itself Johnson is all wrong for the Conservatives and all wrong for the situation they find themselves in. When May tried to play a d rate Boudicia she was found out. Johnson will not have her natural cowardice and caution though and get himself into all sorts of scrapes.

The sensible people around May advised her against an election in 2017. They pointed out the triumphantalism of right wing voices, egged on by Editors of newspapers and algorithmically dubious polls were nowhere near as secure as they first felt. There’s a reason why Crosby resigned half way through the campaign and advised her against an early election. In as far as any lead really exists it is shallow.

People still bang on about “shy tory” voters but I think we now have a lot of “shy Labour” voters. Corbyn has been vilified, and you are accused of a whole range of ludicrous crimes for suggesting support of him. You’re accused of being a Nazi, an anti-Semite, sexist, homophobic, pro terrorist etc. None of these things are in the least bit true and I’d say a lot of decent people just don’t admit to being a Labour supporter. This rather washes over the heads of pollsters though, who are stuck in their self important bubble.

As a final point, it could well be the main beneficiaries from the language used from Johnson after October 31st will be the Brexit Party. He may end up just pushing people beyond even the Conservatives. It’s by no means a certainty but it’s a very live possibility. If your whole pitch is to get Brexit done and you don’t I’m sure a section of people will feel betrayed. The question will be how much traction does that sentiment gain.
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The last election gave the Tories a big mountain to climb in any attempt to flip Labour seats; the Corbyn effect added thousands more on majorities in a lot of Labour held constituencies, which will be very difficult to eliminate regardless of the Brexit factor.

Just on the Brexit factor: tor me, the media (especially the tv media) are not reflecting what the feeling is across the board on Leave / Remain. Every vox pop is roughly 3-1 in favour of the "Just Get On With it" view, and hints very heavily about LP supporters switching to the Tories because of Brexit. But look at the opinion polls on Remain/Leave: every single one has Remain now at roughly 55% or more. Where are those voices represented? Do you see or hear them on the BBC/Slky/ITV/CH4 news programmes? Not at all.

I think there is that shy vote you talk about. I very much believe the pollsters and the Tories are counting chickens before they've hatched here. It's going to be a hung parliament IMO.
 
davek said:
The last election gave the Tories a big mountain to climb in any attempt to flip Labour seats; the Corbyn effect added thousands more on majorities in a lot of Labour held constituencies, which will be very difficult to eliminate regardless of the Brexit factor.

Just on the Brexit factor: tor me, the media (especially the tv media) are not reflecting what the feeling is across the board on Leave / Remain. Every vox pop is roughly 3-1 in favour of the "Just Get On With it" view, and hints very heavily about LP supporters switching to the Tories because of Brexit. But look at the opinion polls on Remain/Leave: every single one has Remain now at roughly 55% or more. Where are those voices represented? Do you see or hear them on the BBC/Slky/ITV/CH4 news programmes? Not at all.

I think there is that shy vote you talk about. I very much believe the pollsters and the Tories are counting chickens before they've hatched here. It's going to be a hung parliament IMO.
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could you see a labour/snp coallition? seems the only coallition they could have
 
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