Current Affairs The Labour Party

[WycombeToffee]

It'd be interesting to see how the polls change after this policy blitz.

I've been trying to emulate how FiveThirtyEight did their (albeit unsuccessful) US polling.

With weighted polls (based on historical accuracy), historic data, and betting odds I currently have this...

CON: 43%
LAB: 36%
LIBD: 8%
UKIP: 5%

My swingometer is still really basic (a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet with a few functions and macros), but I currently have the seat count at...

CON: +5 gains = 335 seats
LAB: -1 loss = 232 seats
LIBD: -3 losses = 5 seats
UKIP: No change = 0 seats

20 majority for the Tories.

Still plenty to play for.

How can you think that? There hasn't been a poll that puts Labour within 10 points of the Tories for months. Most are 16-24 points ahead.

 

[Number_25]

How can you think that? There hasn't been a poll that puts Labour within 10 points of the Tories for months. Most are 16-24 points ahead.

Historical data, regression against performances leading up to the polls etc. etc.

 

[WycombeToffee]

Historical data, regression against performances leading up to the polls etc. etc.

We'll see...

 

[ToffeeTim]

How can you think that? There hasn't been a poll that puts Labour within 10 points of the Tories for months. Most are 16-24 points ahead.

I can see the tories squeezing the UKIP vote right up to polling day. If anything Labour might actually get squeezed a little by Libdems too. Standing still in this election will be going back due to the UKIP decimation.

 

[Tubey]

His problem is not keeping his die hard supporters though, he also has to win doubters and swing voters and I'm not sure he's capable of doing so......

I know, that was my point mate.

 

[orly]

It'd be interesting to see how the polls change after this policy blitz.

I've been trying to emulate how FiveThirtyEight did their (albeit unsuccessful) US polling.

With weighted polls (based on historical accuracy), historic data, and betting odds I currently have this...

CON: 43%
LAB: 36%
LIBD: 8%
UKIP: 5%

My swingometer is still really basic (a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet with a few functions and macros), but I currently have the seat count at...

CON: +5 gains = 335 seats
LAB: -1 loss = 232 seats
LIBD: -3 losses = 5 seats
UKIP: No change = 0 seats

20 majority for the Tories.

Still plenty to play for.

Jesus absolute moly

-1 seat.

If you gave that to Labour top lids right now they'd rip your arm off in joy.

I tell you what mate you should back that. You'd make a monstrous amount of cash for very little outlay.

 

[peteblue]

Jesus absolute moly

-1 seat.

I'm not sure that the BBC will use No.25's swingometer tbh...

 

[orly]

Every time I hear a Labour spokesperson come on the radio to explain policy they don't sound very sure of their brief and come across a bit raw. They get picked off easily by the likes of the ghastly Nick Robinson.

I'm not hankering after the Blair years but they were slicker in presentation then.

Unfortunately, these things matter.

Nah, Barry Gardiner took on and ran over Robinson earlier.

We're getting a lot more Barry and a lot less Dianne

 

[Moomin]

Jesus absolute moly

-1 seat.

If you gave that to Labour top lids right now they'd rip your arm off in joy.

I tell you what mate you should back that. You'd make a monstrous amount of cash for very little outlay.

Betting on shocks in election is the way to go now. Good odds on Brexit. On the US Election i got Trump to win Florida at 6-1 on the night.

Will be keeping a close eye on the odds.

 

[orly]

Betting on shocks in election is the way to go now. Good odds on Brexit. On the US Election i got Trump to win Florida at 6-1 on the night.

Will be keeping a close eye on the odds.

True mate, but those are within understandable parameters

-1 seat, well as of a couple of days ago the most generous line was Coral at +/- 162.5 . Most over betting firms are considerably lower.

200+ is a hefty price. 225+ would be probably three times the Leave price on BF when remain hit 1.08

A value bet for any optimistic Labour support would be 200 seats

For anyone interested it's on Oddschecker

 

[Sapie88]

Nah, Barry Gardiner took on and ran over Robinson earlier.

We're getting a lot more Barry and a lot less Dianne

Barry Gardiner has been collecting biased media heads all day.

 

[Moomin]

True mate, but those are within understandable parameters

-1 seat, well as of a couple of days ago the most generous line was Coral at +/- 162.5 . Most over betting firms are considerably lower.

200+ is a hefty price. 225+ would be probably three times the Leave price on BF when remain hit 1.08

A value bet for any optimistic Labour support would be 200 seats

For anyone interested it's on Oddschecker

Scotland could be good to bet on, SNP to have a clean sweep or Labour to take 5+ seats

 

[orly]

Scotland could be good to bet on, SNP to have a clean sweep or Labour to take 5+ seats

Betfair article flagged Cardiff to vote Labour at 11/10 the other day. With that tuition fee promise that is a corker

 

[Goat]

Baffled how anybody can vote Tory, actually blows my head rar off.

 

[Joey66]

My mate, my hero.

one week away and the tories will pile in on that speech with his links to the IRA - etc etc its been said that the tories are keeping a low profile on this for a blast in the last week of destroying Corbyn and it will work - so sad Labour could not field a better leader - with less utopia policies those policies should have been an aim not costed out in an impossible way!
I honestly cannot vote for anyone - put a new centre leader in Labour and it would be a Labour win!