Current Affairs The Labour Party

[peteblue]

as @tsubaki explains, the country has changed dramatically in the last ten years, and not for the better. Labour is the only Party that has in turn changed accordingly to address this, while the other two main parties are responsible for it.

In what way has the country changed for the worse over the last ten years, during which there has been a Labour government, a Coalition government and a Conservative government.....

 

[abelard]

In what way has the country changed for the worse over the last ten years, during which there has been a Labour government, a Coalition government and a Conservative government.....

financial meltdown, brexit, and worst by far, austerity

 

[tsubaki]

In what way has the country changed for the worse over the last ten years, during which there has been a Labour government, a Coalition government and a Conservative government.....

The rate of home ownership has gone into quite a significant decline, especially on the middle income young middle aged (ie: 25-34) who are exactly the type of people the Tories used to turn into elderly Tory voters:

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/10505

When you add that to the slowdown in wages, the increase in transport costs, the cost of university tuition and the ongoing decline of the stable job (and decent pension) - all of which affect them more than almost anyone else - even you should realise what this means.

 

[Number_25]

When you add that to the slowdown in wages, the increase in transport costs, the cost of university tuition and the ongoing decline of the stable job (and decent pension) - all of which affect them more than almost anyone else - even you should realise what this means.

Yup.

Fully Automated.
Luxury.
Gay.
Space.
Communism.

 

[peteblue]

The rate of home ownership has gone into quite a significant decline, especially on the middle income young middle aged (ie: 25-34) who are exactly the type of people the Tories used to turn into elderly Tory voters:

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/10505

When you add that to the slowdown in wages, the increase in transport costs, the cost of university tuition and the ongoing decline of the stable job (and decent pension) - all of which affect them more than almost anyone else - even you should realise what this means.

So what is the incentive for Labour to change home ownership levels. If they improve it they will be growing more Tories....

 

[catcherintherye]

The numbers don’t add up. Corbyn played a blinder in the last election and attempted to bribe everyone with freebies, May made every possible mistake and upset her natural supporters. Labour increased its popular vote by a massive 3.5M over the 2015 election, yet May also got an additional 2.5M and still had 1M over Corbyn. All the conservatives have to do is not hack off the electorate with a dopey manifesto again......

I don't see this at all mate, though I can imagine it will be the Conservative thinking (I think I said as much in 2017).

Hesaltine and Iain Dale both wrote very interesting articles after the last election. Dale's in particular was a very astute analysis (far beyond most of the right or indeed the left). The Conservatives face a severe crisis of demography. Without being crude their voters are dying off and they are doing a very poor job at replenishing them at the other end.

I saw some (conservative) guys cheering when the "youth quake theory" was disproved (albeit the criticism of it went too far, it did exist just not in the way it was reported) as a major problem for Labour. Maybe it is, but it presents far more alarming issues for the Conservatives. If it wasn't largely young people flocking to the polls then who was it making up those numbers? It was increasingly 30 and 40 somethings, often with families going to vote Labour and Corbyn's Labour (in many cases from Conservative). These are a lot more solid voters than teenagers and 20 somethings who's votes will be more flexible and in truth will face quite sharp changes in lifestyle over the next 10 years (they might "grow up" as it were) and have more option to change. The smarter conservative voices can see the issue and weren't cheering on the news to be fair.

The demography crisis was very similar to social democratic parties on the continent who have been wiped out over the last 10-15 years. I remember giving them a similar warning and often you would be met with the same sort of arrogant response, that it was about the specifics of one campaign and/or 1 election. Labour went in a radically different direction, so much so most of the leading apparatus of the party would align themselves more with the Tories than the current leadership. That's the level of transformation it has taken for them to shift that pattern.

The other issue the Tories have got is that the "right" vote went down for the first time in 20 years in 2017. What May did was consolidate the right vote. This was always the golden opportunity for the Tories, they knew that they could allay many of the longer term problems by getting a huge vote and crushing Labour. They would then have the space to shift their image. It was a very sensible strategy in truth, but they have missed that opportunity big time. UKIP voters are going back to Labour at the same peed as going back to Tories (some even Liberals/Greens) and they will again eat into the Tory vote.

In a longwinded way I would say that May and her pretty shoddy campaign are a symptom not the cause of the problem. I would also note that most Tories I spoke to in the election wouldn't here a single word against her campaign, when I was telling them it was actually quite poor, I remember being told it was "fake news" by me. I do find it amusing to hear them now trudging that out as the excuse without having the humility to accept they called it wrong then.

When the history books are written I think they will look back and wonder how they messed it up after 2015. They pushed out their only leader to win a majority in decades and the most competent politician they had (Osborne) to cave in to the small minded wing of their organisation. Both Cameron and Osborne ran rings around Labour on the subjects that mattered to people (it's the economy stupid). I'm not a Conservative and never would be, but I always respected the big vision people they had who wouldn't get bogged down in either abstraction or questions of purity. They took realistic decisions to try to help people get on. It's unfathomable to me they have moved from that formula. For the most part it's because the lunatics are running the asylum. Any leader post May will be a further step in the wrong direction and the longer term trends will continue to bite them.

 

[catcherintherye]

So what is the incentive for Labour to change home ownership levels. If they improve it they will be growing more Tories....

If the Tories did something nuts, like offering the same incentives for private renters to buy houses off private landlords at knockdown prices, like they did with the state sector they would likely win the next election and be in power for generations to come. It would probably have been the sort of move someone like a Thatcher would have considered (if not acted upon).

 

[peteblue]

Yup.

Fully Automated.
Luxury.
Gay.
Space.
Communism.

Needs its own thread really. We’ve discussed AI and automated futures before, but this is such a big subject when you add any political dimension (will we even need politics).........

 

[peteblue]

If the Tories did something nuts, like offering the same incentives for private renters to buy houses off private landlords at knockdown prices, like they did with the state sector they would likely win the next election and be in power for generations to come. It would probably have been the sort of move someone like a Thatcher would have considered (if not acted upon).

I actually thought of writing that as a response, and totally agree with the concept....

 

[peteblue]

I don't see this at all mate, though I can imagine it will be the Conservative thinking (I think I said as much in 2017).

Hesaltine and Iain Dale both wrote very interesting articles after the last election. Dale's in particular was a very astute analysis (far beyond most of the right or indeed the left). The Conservatives face a severe crisis of demography. Without being crude their voters are dying off and they are doing a very poor job at replenishing them at the other end.

I saw some (conservative) guys cheering when the "youth quake theory" was disproved (albeit the criticism of it went too far, it did exist just not in the way it was reported) as a major problem for Labour. Maybe it is, but it presents far more alarming issues for the Conservatives. If it wasn't largely young people flocking to the polls then who was it making up those numbers? It was increasingly 30 and 40 somethings, often with families going to vote Labour and Corbyn's Labour (in many cases from Conservative). These are a lot more solid voters than teenagers and 20 somethings who's votes will be more flexible and in truth will face quite sharp changes in lifestyle over the next 10 years (they might "grow up" as it were) and have more option to change. The smarter conservative voices can see the issue and weren't cheering on the news to be fair.

The demography crisis was very similar to social democratic parties on the continent who have been wiped out over the last 10-15 years. I remember giving them a similar warning and often you would be met with the same sort of arrogant response, that it was about the specifics of one campaign and/or 1 election. Labour went in a radically different direction, so much so most of the leading apparatus of the party would align themselves more with the Tories than the current leadership. That's the level of transformation it has taken for them to shift that pattern.

The other issue the Tories have got is that the "right" vote went down for the first time in 20 years in 2017. What May did was consolidate the right vote. This was always the golden opportunity for the Tories, they knew that they could allay many of the longer term problems by getting a huge vote and crushing Labour. They would then have the space to shift their image. It was a very sensible strategy in truth, but they have missed that opportunity big time. UKIP voters are going back to Labour at the same peed as going back to Tories (some even Liberals/Greens) and they will again eat into the Tory vote.

In a longwinded way I would say that May and her pretty shoddy campaign are a symptom not the cause of the problem. I would also note that most Tories I spoke to in the election wouldn't here a single word against her campaign, when I was telling them it was actually quite poor, I remember being told it was "fake news" by me. I do find it amusing to hear them now trudging that out as the excuse without having the humility to accept they called it wrong then.

When the history books are written I think they will look back and wonder how they messed it up after 2015. They pushed out their only leader to win a majority in decades and the most competent politician they had (Osborne) to cave in to the small minded wing of their organisation. Both Cameron and Osborne ran rings around Labour on the subjects that mattered to people (it's the economy stupid). I'm not a Conservative and never would be, but I always respected the big vision people they had who wouldn't get bogged down in either abstraction or questions of purity. They took realistic decisions to try to help people get on. It's unfathomable to me they have moved from that formula. For the most part it's because the lunatics are running the asylum. Any leader post May will be a further step in the wrong direction and the longer term trends will continue to bite them.

Osborne was in a no win situation because of the Brexit campaign. May kept her head down, Osborne had nailed his colours to the mast. Boris is more likely to beat Corbyn than May.....

 

[catcherintherye]

I actually thought of writing that as a response, and totally agree with the concept....

It's a crazy idea and I don't think it would ever happen. I'm not sure on what legal grounds it can be explored. If i'm brutally honest it's beyond the intellectual capacity of most politicians and their lackeys currently. The best minds they have seem to be focussed on abstract legal questions of sovereignty (which is fair enough and quite noble but doesn't win you the mucky business of politics).

Most of my friends vote Labour. There's a mix in there, some are more working class, some are quite successful. The majority of them rent privately and if that was offered as a solution the majority of them would switch their vote.

I think th Conservatives need something like that, something that had the impact of right to buy to get them back on track again.

 

[catcherintherye]

Osborne was in a no win situation because of the Brexit campaign. May kept her head down, Osborne had nailed his colours to the mast. Boris is more likely to beat Corbyn than May.....

Osborne made a mess of the Brexit thing. He and Cameron did to be fair. I try to be fair to all politicians and I think both did commendable jobs but that was a big mistake.

I don't think Boris is at all though. The polling numbers I've seen suggest May out performs Corbyn and Corbyn out performs Johnson. I think May is actually quite underrated. I think Boris is will loved by his core supporters but not so much beyond that, which is easy to confuse with mass support.

Osborne and Cameron's ratings may be poor, but they had a plan and a record that ultimately would have seen them through. They'd have also been able to put Labour under far more scrutiny on the economy, a pressure that I'm not sure they would be able to withstand. Hammond not publishing the figures at the last election was another example of an open goal being missed.

 

[abelard]

It's a crazy idea and I don't think it would ever happen. I'm not sure on what legal grounds it can be explored. If i'm brutally honest it's beyond the intellectual capacity of most politicians and their lackeys currently. The best minds they have seem to be focussed on abstract legal questions of sovereignty (which is fair enough and quite noble but doesn't win you the mucky business of politics).

Most of my friends vote Labour. There's a mix in there, some are more working class, some are quite successful. The majority of them rent privately and if that was offered as a solution the majority of them would switch their vote.

I think th Conservatives need something like that, something that had the impact of right to buy to get them back on track again.

yes, but the trouble for them is that they are hemmed in by those who do vote Tory, who will never allow younger voters what they had handed to them by the state

the Party knows there is a problem, but all they can muster politically are tepid, even counterproductive reforms, like Help to Buy, for instance - most of those who've taken advantage earn over £50k, and all it has served to accomplish has been driving prices up further still, as developers have predictably responded by pricing it in.

the £112m bonus for the Persimmon boss was not because he actually contributed anything, but simply because of the firm's Help to Buy windfall

 

[peteblue]

Osborne made a mess of the Brexit thing. He and Cameron did to be fair. I try to be fair to all politicians and I think both did commendable jobs but that was a big mistake.

I don't think Boris is at all though. The polling numbers I've seen suggest May out performs Corbyn and Corbyn out performs Johnson. I think May is actually quite underrated. I think Boris is will loved by his core supporters but not so much beyond that, which is easy to confuse with mass support.

Osborne and Cameron's ratings may be poor, but they had a plan and a record that ultimately would have seen them through. They'd have also been able to put Labour under far more scrutiny on the economy, a pressure that I'm not sure they would be able to withstand. Hammond not publishing the figures at the last election was another example of an open goal being missed.

May is a competent pair of hands and plays the politics reasonably well but her failure is to overcompensate for her lack of charisma by trying to be the centre of things when she should delegate. She did it during the GE when she sidelined Boris and others, drew up a disastrous manifesto, and she blew it when she sidelined Davis and announced she had all the answers and would lead discussions. She has painted herself into a corner and one from which that the EU will provide no escape......

 

[catcherintherye]

May is a competent pair of hands and plays the politics reasonably well but her failure is to overcompensate for her lack of charisma by trying to be the centre of things when she should delegate. She did it during the GE when she sidelined Boris and others, drew up a disastrous manifesto, and she blew it when she sidelined Davis and announced she had all the answers and would lead discussions. She has painted herself into a corner and one from which that the EU will provide no escape......

May's plan to replace one of the most successful brands in the field with herself was an enormous mistake. I don't think anyone could argue otherwise.

It was akin to Macdonalds not using it's logo on adverts but the Ceo's name.