That's not how it works though...
This I more agree with. The Tory party is totally rudderless at the moment with various groups trying to hook their claws in and drag them to various right-wing ports. I think we're in unprecedented waters currently and it's not a given that they just bounce back given the decent showing of the smaller parties - extra seats for the Greens, a strong Lib Dem showing and Reform winning more seats than any of their previous incarnations ever did... combined - which way do they move when they have to try to muscle in on Labour's share too?
This however depends on Labour not getting embroiled in something that drives voters Torywards!
Edit - Demographics are also against them. This isn't uncommon, but they've become even more hostile than usual towards youth voters and from ConsHome comments, whilst they do recognise this as a problem there literally isn't a will to do anything about it.
I'm not sure I get your first comment. You can use precedent to compare. I'd say it's about as good a comparison as you can get.
Let's put it this way, I don't think Starmer is going to be taking any great risks either. There will be no easy wins. No idiotic knobs like Cummings wanting to blow up the civil service etc.
I think you are right. They are in a world of trouble. I don't really buy this it's always been that way either. In 1979/1983 they won the youth vote.
Their demography is hideous. It's worse than socially democratic parties in East Europe who would govern, then very quickly went to irrelevancy. And that's without FPTP, which accelerates this. And honestly, we probably would have had the same conversation if we would have said say, the SP on France would disappear, or similar parties in say Poland. It's just a human bias, we cant see change when it's about to happen.
Your final point I agree with. They have no idea what they need to do. Starmer basically went to the right of the Tory on their core issues, like Crime, Migration etc. They probably need to go to Labours left on social issues and say publicly sector. Good luck with that.
If I were advising them, it would be that they need urgent shock treatment. They basically need to win young (under 40) left voters from Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens to stop the leak from dying members. But like you say, nobody is even close to putting the perspective that's needed. They will just keep driving towards the iceberg, telling everyone Icebergs are woke and sinking the ship is winning really.