Current Affairs The Labour Party

[Joey66]

Yes. That was 3 elections ago now though. Its the past. In sure moving forwards, after 3 elections there will understandably be some discussion on it. It's not like it's worked well has it?

Dodge the argument

 

[catcherintherye]

I don't think it was a prediction (at least by any sensible commentator), my recollection was that he was reported saying he wanted 10 years, to "outlast Thatcher". This was a few months after the Hartlepool byelection win in 2021 (a result which reportedly had Starmer considering quitting). About 9 months later, he was out.

I remember lots of political commentators and journalists saying it. And disagreeing with all of them

 

[Hinchcliffe's Corner]

Dodge the argument

Joey how can you afford to go to Jersey and not afford your winter heating?

 

[Rita_Poon]

Joey how can you afford to go to Jersey and not afford your winter heating?

shares in P&O?

 

[Hinchcliffe's Corner]

shares in P&O?

Been 40 mins and he's still dodging the argument to use his own words.

 

[Kurt.]

As Joey said, they could have simply said anyone paying 40% tax has it removed, simple to operate and clear as day to pensioners…..

Joey also said it should be available to anyone who has an income (or joint) of 50k … there’s not many who have the privilege of having a 50k annual income

 

[Charro]

Of course it happens. And the fact it hasn't happened here, doesn't mean it cant.

The maths is simple, the Tories are a long long way back. There is zero chance they come back at the next election. It's it easy for them to lose that election at all.

If the Tories move to the centre, and have a massive purge, they may get back in in 20-30 years. If not Labour will.be governing indefinitely.

Any examples of a modern day democratic country having 30 years of the same rule?

It’s mental to be so sure Labour are in definite power for the next 20/30 years.

Blair’s Labour had a similar majority, in a much more stable political climate and still lost it within ten years.

 

[catcherintherye]

Any examples of a modern day democratic country having 30 years of the same rule?

It’s mental to be so sure Labour are in definite power for the next 20/30 years.

Blair’s Labour had a similar majority, in a much more stable political climate and still lost it within ten years.

I think in the Nordic countries they did. But I am also not sure the demography has ever been quite so stark.

I can see a world where Labour lose support, almost inevitably, but it's going to spray off in different directions. A lot will go left to a bow more viable Greens, SNP, some will go to a more liberal Lib Dems. How much will be left for the Tories? And how much support, realistically will Labour drop below 33%. They only got marginally less under the dar days of Corbyn.

They have a core level of voters, and are heavily stacked not just from young people, but increasingly millennials who have voted for them through multiple elections.

So even if some support is lost, it's not going to be going to a single party, which would be what is required for a change of government.

The best hope is the Tories. They are 45 seats worse than in 97. In 97 it took them 13 years to become the biggest party, 18 to win an election, and 22 to win an election with a proper majority.

If you deduct the 45 seats seat difference, it would have taken them 22 years, or 6 cycles to form a government, and even then it would likely have to be a coalition. And they did not have the demographic challenges in 97 they have now, and they quite quickly moved to the centre. Again crudely, if they wait 20 years, they will be alnost extinct.

I don't think people really comprehend the mess they are in. I got similar responses when I said the Tories would lose. And similar decision when I said 97 would be a good result for them. People can't seem to comprehend what the data says mate.

 

[Xizor]

If you deduct the 45 seats seat difference, it would have taken them 22 years, or 6 cycles to form a government, and even then it would likely have to be a coalition. And they did not have the demographic challenges in 97 they have now, and they quite quickly moved to the centre. Again crudely, if they wait 20 years, they will be alnost extinct.

That's not how it works though...

I don't think people really comprehend the mess they are in. I got similar responses when I said the Tories would lose. And similar decision when I said 97 would be a good result for them. People can't seem to comprehend what the data says mate.

This I more agree with. The Tory party is totally rudderless at the moment with various groups trying to hook their claws in and drag them to various right-wing ports. I think we're in unprecedented waters currently and it's not a given that they just bounce back given the decent showing of the smaller parties - extra seats for the Greens, a strong Lib Dem showing and Reform winning more seats than any of their previous incarnations ever did... combined - which way do they move when they have to try to muscle in on Labour's share too?


This however depends on Labour not getting embroiled in something that drives voters Torywards!

Edit - Demographics are also against them. This isn't uncommon, but they've become even more hostile than usual towards youth voters and from ConsHome comments, whilst they do recognise this as a problem there literally isn't a will to do anything about it.

 

[peteblue]

Joey also said it should be available to anyone who has an income (or joint) of 50k … there’s not many who have the privilege of having a 50k annual income

Just us pensioners….

 

[Hinchcliffe's Corner]

Just us pensioners….

Why pensioners and not unemployed families?

 

[StDomingosGringo]

The kids who grew up under Thatcher, helped sway things towards Blair when they could vote & saw the improvements.

Over 14 years of Tory incompetence their kids then have lost a lot more than their school milk & many of those kids are yet to start voting.

A Tory death spiral would be well deserved for the damage they’ve inflicted on the country.

 

[Goat]

Joey also said it should be available to anyone who has an income (or joint) of 50k … there’s not many who have the privilege of having a 50k annual income

???????????

50k?

And people are complaining, they dont even have a mortgage for Gods sake.

 

[StDomingosGringo]

Why pensioners and not unemployed families?

It’s not his fault. He’s been bribed by the Tories to look away for that long he lost all empathy for any other groups he isn’t personally in.

 

[Hinchcliffe's Corner]

It’s not his fault. He’s been bribed by the Tories to look away for that long he lost all empathy for any other groups he isn’t personally in.

I can't for the life of me work out why people who are sunning off to Jersey and owning pubs are so bothered about such a small reduction in benefits they don't need but never showed any regard for starving families struggling to feed their kids.