Current Affairs The Labour Party

[davek]

Th stuff you read. Your head must be a cesspit.

 

[Goat]

Th stuff you read. Your head must be a cesspit.

Im not the 1 posting sensationalist made up newspaper articles.

 

[Amw79]

Things that'll be taxing Starmer's Party in the next few months before the election will be...

3/ if Reform stand candidates in enough / any significant number to aid the Tories

Is there something like 2500 council seats? And I think 300 odd candidates stood for reform?

That’s the current position with 102 out of 107 council returns.

This isn’t a gotcha, I thought they might make some waves as well, but doesn’t look like it.

 

[Amw79]

As this was a well thought out post, I’ll give a considered response.

Things that'll be taxing Starmer's Party in the next few months before the election will be...

1/ the Gaza issue costing them in constituencies in the West Midlands and North West

Yep, it definitely will.

2/ whether John Swinney can settle the SNP down enough to stabilise and secure their Westminster votes up there denying Labour a raft of seats

SNP is a mess, and think it’s unlikely it will settle enough in the near future. But a possibility.

3/ if Reform stand candidates in enough / any significant number to aid the Tories

Already answered above. No.

4/ whether voter disaffection leads more people than usual to stay at home and not vote

Think this will affect the Tories proportionally much more than Labour.

5/ the traditional Tory voters who have abandoned them thus far in this parliament reluctantly backing them again

Can’t see it under Sunak. A decisive part of elections is always those who just won’t turn out for their usual party of choice (like yourself in these locals).

6/ that during a 4 week election campaign voters will be turned off a Labour leader who's pretty unlikeable

Don’t think unlikeable is right. Uninspiring probably closer. But yeah, sure this is a worry.

7/ that voters will look at what Labour are offering and are unimpressed by their essentially 'no change' pitch on major policy issues

We’ll see when manifestos come out. But I think people want a change of government, almost irrespective of policy. The promise of competence is almost as important as policy at this point.

They have a lot of potential pitfalls, then. And they're riddled with the internal contradiction over selling themselves as a party for renewal and telling anyone that'll listen to them that they won't spend to make it happen. Voters aren't daft and they'll smell a rat.

Starmer's lot will win, no doubt. However, there's winning and winning big. I cant see the latter outcome at this stage. Nowhere near it.

That’s a relief.

 

[Charro]

Despite being constantly told on here that it doesn't matter, labours stance on gaza is clearly hurting their chances.

People support the labour party for a lot of reasons, and one of them is the hope they stand for justice domestically and globally.

People who support the tories don't care about this, but labour supporters do and when you go against that, people will turn away.

If labour don't get a majority it will be a massive failure, despite the amount of seats they need to win back over. They need to change tact and realise a large part of it's base expects the party to stand for certain things.

 

[mightymoyes]

Be great news if they had to do a coalition with another party after the general election

 

[orchard]

Be great news if they had to do a coalition with another party after the general election

Conservatives?

 

[davek]

As this was a well thought out post, I’ll give a considered response.


Yep, it definitely will.


SNP is a mess, and think it’s unlikely it will settle enough in the near future. But a possibility.


Already answered above. No.


Think this will affect the Tories proportionally much more than Labour.

Can’t see it under Sunak. A decisive part of elections is always those who just won’t turn out for their usual party of choice (like yourself in these locals).

Don’t think unlikeable is right. Uninspiring probably closer. But yeah, sure this is a worry.

We’ll see when manifestos come out. But I think people want a change of government, almost irrespective of policy. The promise of competence is almost as important as policy at this point.


That’s a relief.

The biggest thing this uninspiring and reactionary 'Labour' Party have going for them is that the Tories are so unpopular. If Sunak were to be replaced it wouldn't shift the dial for the Tories. Defeat is baked in now. But the question is whether there's a big majority for Starmer's Party. After all this time of massive poll leads it looks to me like they've wrung just about as much out of the apathy and dislike of the Tory Party, and their lead isn't that impressive.

I just cant see how a 'Labour' Party like this one avoids all those problems I bullet pointed above to make a seismic grab for power. To get a landslide you have to have a vision, you cant just not be the unpopular opposition. That's why they'll be a one term government.

 

[mightymoyes]

Conservatives?

Think that would finish both parties so might be a fun watch

 

[tsubaki]

The biggest thing this uninspiring and reactionary 'Labour' Party have going for them is that the Tories are so unpopular. If Sunak were to be replaced it wouldn't shift the dial for the Tories. Defeat is baked in now. But the question is whether there's a big majority for Starmer's Party. After all this time of massive poll leads it looks to me like they've wrung just about as much out of the apathy and dislike of the Tory Party, and their lead isn't that impressive.

I just cant see how a 'Labour' Party like this one avoids all those problems I bullet pointed above to make a seismic grab for power. To get a landslide you have to have a vision, you cant just not be the unpopular opposition. That's why they'll be a one term government.

I am not sure they will be - the current ruling faction won't last that long, but a big enough win would allow them to be removed without too much fuss and better leadership found.

 

[Ming the merciless]

Despite being constantly told on here that it doesn't matter, labours stance on gaza is clearly hurting their chances.

People support the labour party for a lot of reasons, and one of them is the hope they stand for justice domestically and globally.

People who support the tories don't care about this, but labour supporters do and when you go against that, people will turn away.

If labour don't get a majority it will be a massive failure, despite the amount of seats they need to win back over. They need to change tact and realise a large part of it's base expects the party to stand for certain things.

Somebody once said - “ The Labour Party is a crusade, or it’s nothing”. At the moment it’s nothing.

 

[davek]

Despite being constantly told on here that it doesn't matter, labours stance on gaza is clearly hurting their chances.

People support the labour party for a lot of reasons, and one of them is the hope they stand for justice domestically and globally.

People who support the tories don't care about this, but labour supporters do and when you go against that, people will turn away.

If labour don't get a majority it will be a massive failure, despite the amount of seats they need to win back over. They need to change tact and realise a large part of it's base expects the party to stand for certain things.

Starmer's Party are captured by a pro-Israel, pro-Washington cabal so that will never happen.

There's no way they'll u-turn in the future if they haven't done so when they've stood behind the murder of 33,000 people in a tiny population in Gaza.

This is the other triumph of Toryism. The embracing of their social and economic policy by Starmer has gone hand in hand with his championing of militarisation and a refusal to condemn atrocities committed by those backed to the hilt by Washington. Biden will reap the whirlwind over that in the US elections this autumn and Starmer has sown his future defeat in 5 years time with it.

 

[davek]

I am not sure they will be - the current ruling faction won't last that long, but a big enough win would allow them to be removed without too much fuss and better leadership found.

Labour?

You think the Labour leadership will be ousted by the parliamentary party after winning an election?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Starmer's Party are captured by a pro-Israel, pro-Washington cabal so that will never happen.

There's no way they'll u-turn in the future if they haven't done so when they've stood behind the murder of 33,000 people in a tiny population in Gaza.

This is the other triumph of Toryism. The embracing of their social and economic policy by Starmer has gone hand in hand with his championing of militarisation and a refusal to condemn atrocities committed by those backed to the hilt by Washington. Biden will reap the whirlwind over that in the US elections this autumn and Starmer has sown his future defeat in 5 years time with it.

Because Trump and whomever follows Sunak are better? Good grief.

 

[tsubaki]

Labour?

You think the Labour leadership will be ousted by the parliamentary party after winning an election?

I do dave - as I've said before, they are in a far weaker position than they think they are. The measures that the top of the party is taking - imposing candidates, restricting open selections, attacking internal opposition, manipulating the rulebook - are the actions of weak leadership; if they had political support they wouldn't need to fix things because they'd be popular enough to win and do what they want. As a government things will be even worse for them, as they need institutional backing to do things and that requires either a coherent, sensible and well-thought-out policy and ministerial ability - and they lack both.

Most of the current top of the party do not have the genuine internal or electoral political support that they would need to survive a crisis and so, when a crisis comes along, they will have to either change position (unlikely given that the lack of support means they are reliant on donors and media exposure) or will be replaced. There aren't enough of them at the top to survive many crises, or indeed one big crisis.

I think probably quite quickly a Starmer government will come up against a big issue, the clique at the top will try what it thinks are standard measures of the kind that any post-1979 government would have done and it will not work. When it doesn't work, they will try and stick to their guns and will get overrun. Starmer will dismiss them and, out of a sense of self-preservation, will appoint more competent people who change course. When that works, the argument for the right wing at the top of the party will be lost.