Current Affairs The Labour Party

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What if a deal is cut by the Official Tories with Reform for the general election.
Doubt it they can't even get enough local councillors to stand. The one they did have has been booted. Reform have no councillors at the time of writing. They just not got the momentum to stand candidates in general election. Reform are no where near UKiP for numbers.
Greens are a threat to Labour but only in very targeted areas on local issues, nationwide they are just appallingly poor at public relationships. And their policy on housing for instance is a joke basically, don't build anywhere.
 
Just returning to that BBC projected national share (if local elections were repeated in a G.E.):

2024's projection of Labour on 34% is down on the 35% of national share in both 2022 and 2023.

Sky's projected national share does put Labour on 35% of national share right now, but they also have the Tories 2 points higher at 26% (as opposed to 24% the BBC project for them).

The 'Takeaway' message is that Starmer's Party are doing well but maybe not well enough to secure a decent majority, or even a majority at all.

Of course, swing areas / seats will tell maybe a different and another story, but you'd imagine at Milbank Tower there'll be concern at a stubborn lack of cut through amongst certain sections of the electorate amongst Starmer's advisors...

...maybe they should adopt some popular policies and not coat tail their Tory big brother so much?
 
Worrying for them that they aren’t projected to have a majority at the next election.

Traditionally the polls are always in labours favour as well so there needs to be a change somewhere.
 
Worrying for them that they aren’t projected to have a majority at the next election.

Traditionally the polls are always in labours favour as well so there needs to be a change somewhere.
Things that'll be taxing Starmer's Party in the next few months before the election will be...

1/ the Gaza issue costing them in constituencies in the West Midlands and North West

2/ whether John Swinney can settle the SNP down enough to stabilise and secure their Westminster votes up there denying Labour a raft of seats

3/ if Reform stand candidates in enough / any significant number to aid the Tories

4/ whether voter disaffection leads more people than usual to stay at home and not vote

5/ the traditional Tory voters who have abandoned them thus far in this parliament reluctantly backing them again

6/ that during a 4 week election campaign voters will be turned off a Labour leader who's pretty unlikeable

7/ that voters will look at what Labour are offering and are unimpressed by their essentially 'no change' pitch on major policy issues


They have a lot of potential pitfalls, then. And they're riddled with the internal contradiction over selling themselves as a party for renewal and telling anyone that'll listen to them that they won't spend to make it happen. Voters aren't daft and they'll smell a rat.

Starmer's lot will win, no doubt. However, there's winning and winning big. I cant see the latter outcome at this stage. Nowhere near it.
 
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