Current Affairs The General Election

Voting Intentions

  • Labour

    Votes: 209 61.1%
  • Tories

    Votes: 30 8.8%
  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 20 5.8%
  • Brexit Gubbins

    Votes: 8 2.3%
  • Greens

    Votes: 8 2.3%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Change UK, if that's their current moniker

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • DUP

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 2.6%
  • Alliance

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • SDLP

    Votes: 2 0.6%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • Some fringe party with a catchy name

    Votes: 7 2.0%
  • A plague on all your houses

    Votes: 32 9.4%

  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
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Read it yourself.

I read the housing section and it basically says that Labour will make it easier for councils to build houses. So nothing will happen centrally at all, yet they will no doubt take credit for any councils that do manage to, just as they've avoided blame for the crap state of towns that have been Labour controlled for 50 years.
 
I read the housing section and it basically says that Labour will make it easier for councils to build houses. So nothing will happen centrally at all, yet they will no doubt take credit for any councils that do manage to, just as they've avoided blame for the crap state of towns that have been Labour controlled for 50 years.

I see you haven't actually read it
 
I trade the market so know the price movements as well as anyone. The Cons shortened in to 1.37 when the Yougov MRP forecast was released, but then drifted up to 1.57 in the week after that as Lab narrowed the gap. However, the price has shortened in again in the last few days, presumeably as Lab's progress has halted and the polling gap has held steady. By contrast Lab's price has traded as low as 28 but now drifted up to 44, reflecting the Con's shortening price.


Lab >196 looks a good bet now after their vote has firmed up. Current betting has their seat total about 215-220.

Fair enough mate, good for you.

At the time of writing that post, there had been nominal movement in Cons to win most seats. Looking today and most of the movement is away from a Conservative majority (but not enormously so).

I don't see much value in Labour winning. However the hung Parliament looks to be a decent outside value bet. I've seen Cons are on 341/2 on the over under. Looks about spot on, but it's only 17 seats away from being a hung Parliament. Any suggestions of a 65+ seat majority as some are predicting look a bit wild. It's going to be very close.

I should add, a majority of 17 seats is barely workable. They would eat Johnson alive over the next 12 months. He knows he needs bigger.
 
Fair enough mate, good for you.

At the time of writing that post, there had been nominal movement in Cons to win most seats. Looking today and most of the movement is away from a Conservative majority (but not enormously so).

I don't see much value in Labour winning. However the hung Parliament looks to be a decent outside value bet. I've seen Cons are on 341/2 on the over under. Looks about spot on, but it's only 17 seats away from being a hung Parliament. Any suggestions of a 65+ seat majority as some are predicting look a bit wild. It's going to be very close.

I should add, a majority of 17 seats is barely workable. They would eat Johnson alive over the next 12 months. He knows he needs bigger.

Aren't most of their candidates leavers now? further to the right? 17 seats will be enough for him to wreck this country.
 
Election funding after week 3.

Tories 12m, 2 donations of 1m, vast majority from rich backers donating large sums including several russians.

Labour 4m including 3m from Unite union, but a further 2m from donations of £20 or under which don't need to be officially recorded.
 
Aren't most of their candidates leavers now? further to the right? 17 seats will be enough for him to wreck this country.

Yes they are more leave orientated. However I think there is a misunderstanding here as to what causes the differences. Big corporate interests groups will be into the new intake the moment they arrive. They will know if they can turn 15 then they get what they want.

There will be a number who will be open to being turned too.

At the other end you are going to have headbangers who want a harder or ultimately a No Deal Brexit when the trade deal likely doesn't pass.

With such a small majority you know very early on, it's only a small number of people to win around to hold the PM to ransom, as they did with May.
 
In any other era, those documents Corbyn has unveiled alone would tank Brexit.

It's basically advocating the managed decline of a whole country.

Thought this sums it up well...


Jeremy Corbyn has unveiled a leaked Treasury document showing that, despite Boris Johnson’s assurances, there will be customs checks on goods going between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom and vice versa.

His argument is that, as Johnson has already broken his word by putting a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea, we can’t possibly trust him to keep his word on Brexit. Corbyn’s case is unimpeachable, copper-bottomed, seaworthy: whatever synonym for “unarguable” you want, it fits.

But his actual prop to make that case tells us nothing new at all – it is the first official document saying that as well as checks going east to west (that is, between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom) there will be checks going west to east (that is, between the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland). But that is “news” only in the sense that someone telling you “you have to take the stairs to get to the top of the tower” might tell you that you have to take the stairs to get back down again – it follows inexorably from the first point.

It’s similar to Corbyn’s first big secret document, which only told us what anyone who had looked at the detail of US-UK trade knew: that the only way to have a meaningful US-UK trade deal is to put British agriculture and pharmaceuticals on the table.

For Labour, the two documents are inextricably linked. Labour’s case is that, because Johnson has been shown he can’t be trusted on the customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea, he also can’t be trusted on keeping the NHS out of a US-UK trade deal, or increasing the number of police on the beat, or any other promise you care to name. And again, the policy case here is unarguable: there are, in my view, good political reasons to think that in practice Boris Johnson will never be able to overcome public resistance to breaking these promises. But the pattern across these documents is clear: that policy assurances from Boris Johnson tend not to mean very much.

While both documents perfectly illustrate the case Labour wants to make, neither document is “new”. But Team Corbyn know full well that the only way to get most of the press, particularly our all-important general interest broadcasters, to cover policy is to add the words “Top Secret” in big shiny letters on it. So after an NHS story that revealed nothing we already know, we have a customs and regulatory story that reveals nothing that isn’t in Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement. Yet without these leaks, coverage of the content of Johnson’s Brexit deal would be even thinner than it currently is.

One of the troubling things about this election is that, outside of the specialist press and Sky News, the policy detail of Johnson’s Brexit plan has barely been scrutinised. That matters not just because of the election and how it might change the result but what happens next. Trade policy isn’t, largely, about things that are hidden from view: it’s about the granular detail of things like the withdrawal agreement – the kind of thing that the BBC’s Brexitcast podcast, the most influential Brexit podcast, frequently describes as “nerdy”.

It’s not nerdy – it’s essential, and it shouldn’t require the leader of the opposition to treat things we already know as top secret for it to be covered properly.
 
Election funding after week 3.

Tories 12m, 2 donations of 1m, vast majority from rich backers donating large sums including several russians.

Labour 4m including 3m from Unite union, but a further 2m from donations of £20 or under which don't need to be officially recorded.

Maybe its got something to do with the threat of a Corbyn administration blindly plundering anyone who has more than £2.56 in their bank account.

As unpalatable as it sounds, a successful country needs some folk to be rich.
 
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