Current Affairs The General Election

Voting Intentions

  • Labour

    Votes: 209 61.1%
  • Tories

    Votes: 30 8.8%
  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 20 5.8%
  • Brexit Gubbins

    Votes: 8 2.3%
  • Greens

    Votes: 8 2.3%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Change UK, if that's their current moniker

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • DUP

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 2.6%
  • Alliance

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • SDLP

    Votes: 2 0.6%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • Some fringe party with a catchy name

    Votes: 7 2.0%
  • A plague on all your houses

    Votes: 32 9.4%

  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
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This is wonderful. I hope Labour will do likewise, in, say, Richmond.

I suspect neither party will be in a position to formally endorse this on a wide scale, but perhaps they can not interfere too loudly when local candidates are seen to take the initiative themselves.
 


He's an actual idiot.


When I first started to read that, I thought it must be a parody account! This doesn't say much for his financial literacy.

My first job was at Mcdonalds. Back then, it was the store managers on around £30k a year. My starting wage was £2.65 per hour :) .
 
He doesn't need 100. I don't think a 100 majority has ever been on the cards - this ain't gonna be a 1997 landslide. I think they'll get a majority but even it's only a majority of 10 he'll be delighted.

I'm not so sure. A majority of 10 allows all sorts of interests groups to start pressuring him over Brexit. Likely loss of seats at by-elections means he quickly becomes close to a minority government.

The BXP disappear after this election too, as UKIP have. This is the election they need to win substantially if they want much of a future. I doubt a majority of 10 cuts it.
 
Couple of the latest polls seeing the Tory lead dip under 10%.

I wonder if this will narrow even further over the next 4 weeks? I can see a 5%-7% lead for them by polling day and (allowing for the obvious fractured nature of politics right now and the balance of forces in each constituency) that would land us well and truly in hung parliamant territory.

It's going to take Farage's lot standing down in Labour seats to get a majority for the Tories. If that happens then the game changes. If he's serious about fighting in the key Tory target seats, Johnson will struggle.

Before the BXP pulled out, I put 7% at about the figure Labour start to win northern marginals back (and 15% was the Lib Dem figure). The loss of BXP throws that up the wall and makes it more difficult to predict (particularly for Lib Dems in the South).

How resilient the BXP will be critical here. However if Labour get within 5%-7% I don't see an outright majority.
 
I'm not so sure. A majority of 10 allows all sorts of interests groups to start pressuring him over Brexit. Likely loss of seats at by-elections means he quickly becomes close to a minority government.

The BXP disappear after this election too, as UKIP have. This is the election they need to win substantially if they want much of a future. I doubt a majority of 10 cuts it.

He's much rather a majority of 10 than the -30 odd he started with.
 
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