This part is the crux of how the two situations are (rightly or wrongly) different because we are the midst of a crisis so the media really would be interested.
And yes they are assumptions, but I'm basing it partly on
experience. Compare the number of people involved in a police investigation and an NHS hospital.
Now not all hospital staff will be involved, but you've got a chain of people and services who who you would suspect would be involved, directly or indirectly.
You also have to consider rules, procedures and allegiances for all those people, all of which would need to maintain the pretence. Compare the likelihoods!
On how many occasions have you known lies to come out because the bond between those involved breaks down? It's the biggest cause, so allegiance is vital.
Add to that, the 'supposed' (if it's fake) care staff have been publicly acknowledged, so would it be unrealistic that the press may have done some digging on them?
If it was found that he wasn't in ICU, I suspect that the fall out would make the Profumo crisis or other sort of scandal looking tiny - shirking in a real crisis.
I'm not saying that they haven't been entirely truthful, but the idea that this a mass conspiracy (body doubles
@chrismpw) just doesn't balance up for me.
With regards to the him being fine (your point), well I do suspect that he wasn't (again balance of evidence), but that's vastly different to him not being there at all.
Bascially, I think there's a spectrum to lies and deceit, and I don't measure them all on the same scale.