Current Affairs The Conservative Party
- Thread starter Ashtonian
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Aside from my fetch a rope comments (which were a joke before any lurking snowflake red thinks I was serious about it) this party are completely done.
I have not known a party of such spivs in all my time. They seem incapable of admitting they were wrong. I predicted, wait until the end of March and you will see movement in polls etc and true to form it has played out.
They dreamed up Brexit partly because they can't resolve the structural issues within their own party, ut more as a useful stick to destroy Labour. It is destroying themselves and this is really just the start of it.
They will leak votes to UKIP. Bret will be seen as the great betrayal to their voters as the Education fees were to Lib Dem voters. UKIP would take votes off them. Throw in Farage's Brexit Party and you are going to have people knowing away at them from 2 angles. This is the best case scenario as well.
There is every chance, if an election is called that they will not agree a policy re Brexit to stand on and will need to split into 2. Sure at first there will be an expectation that they don't stand against each other, but 1 move from one side to do that will trigger it happening in each constituency (much like how dominoes fall).
They will also leak votes to their left. TIG in all of it's stupidity has ended up pitching a right wing, pro austerity message as the most credible voice within it is Anna Soubry. Though it was created to win Labour votes, it will eat Tories votes at a far greater level as this begins to set in. That was also before Boles and Greave ended up kicking out. So not only losing votes to their right to the BP/UKIP they will lose more moderates to their left.
What is left then? Well the hard earned (and won) reputation for competency, strong government, pragmatism and coherent long term planning has been shattered, perhaps irreparably. This was always the strength go the Conservative Party. They may be a bunch of elite, out of touch, heartless individuals but they get the job done type of line. Few voted for them because they particularly liked them, but because they appreciated they made the pragmatic and difficult choices required. I admired them for the creation of this image they developed.
That's gone though. The process has been shambolic. Thatcher, Churchill (though he was by no means a hardened Tory) Mcmillan, Disreali etc would be turning in their graves at what they have done to a once proud party.
You also have a deep financial crisis within their party with very little worry, and in truth most of the big backers (who they've structured themselves to be deeply reliant upon) are hacked off at the stand they're taken on Brexit. A key life lesson, don't bite the hand that feeds you (or that finds you in their case).
Finally you have (at the last count) 25 people I make it making overtures for leadership. You normally have a big problem when it's privately known a leader will go. Parties struggle with the chaos of that. That it's publicly known and you are going to have the most intense and bloody leadership contest can only further heighten all of the tensions above. In truth 1 leadership election will not solve those tensions, this anger and disagreement will continue on. Brexit will be Pandora's box meets Godot for this Tory Party as in truth I find it hard to see how they ever resolve anything again.
Even if Brexit gets passed through, there are going to be dozens of MP's who are spectacularly angry. It's now normalised to humiliate and bring down your own government. She will not be able to govern and an election is inevitable. The fact they haven't called one is an acknowledgement they know they are finished.
A new right wing party/ies will replace them, but as any kind of serious force, the Conservative Party have resigned themselves to the dustbins of history over the last 3 years. They can't say they weren't warned.
I have not known a party of such spivs in all my time. They seem incapable of admitting they were wrong. I predicted, wait until the end of March and you will see movement in polls etc and true to form it has played out.
They dreamed up Brexit partly because they can't resolve the structural issues within their own party, ut more as a useful stick to destroy Labour. It is destroying themselves and this is really just the start of it.
They will leak votes to UKIP. Bret will be seen as the great betrayal to their voters as the Education fees were to Lib Dem voters. UKIP would take votes off them. Throw in Farage's Brexit Party and you are going to have people knowing away at them from 2 angles. This is the best case scenario as well.
There is every chance, if an election is called that they will not agree a policy re Brexit to stand on and will need to split into 2. Sure at first there will be an expectation that they don't stand against each other, but 1 move from one side to do that will trigger it happening in each constituency (much like how dominoes fall).
They will also leak votes to their left. TIG in all of it's stupidity has ended up pitching a right wing, pro austerity message as the most credible voice within it is Anna Soubry. Though it was created to win Labour votes, it will eat Tories votes at a far greater level as this begins to set in. That was also before Boles and Greave ended up kicking out. So not only losing votes to their right to the BP/UKIP they will lose more moderates to their left.
What is left then? Well the hard earned (and won) reputation for competency, strong government, pragmatism and coherent long term planning has been shattered, perhaps irreparably. This was always the strength go the Conservative Party. They may be a bunch of elite, out of touch, heartless individuals but they get the job done type of line. Few voted for them because they particularly liked them, but because they appreciated they made the pragmatic and difficult choices required. I admired them for the creation of this image they developed.
That's gone though. The process has been shambolic. Thatcher, Churchill (though he was by no means a hardened Tory) Mcmillan, Disreali etc would be turning in their graves at what they have done to a once proud party.
You also have a deep financial crisis within their party with very little worry, and in truth most of the big backers (who they've structured themselves to be deeply reliant upon) are hacked off at the stand they're taken on Brexit. A key life lesson, don't bite the hand that feeds you (or that finds you in their case).
Finally you have (at the last count) 25 people I make it making overtures for leadership. You normally have a big problem when it's privately known a leader will go. Parties struggle with the chaos of that. That it's publicly known and you are going to have the most intense and bloody leadership contest can only further heighten all of the tensions above. In truth 1 leadership election will not solve those tensions, this anger and disagreement will continue on. Brexit will be Pandora's box meets Godot for this Tory Party as in truth I find it hard to see how they ever resolve anything again.
Even if Brexit gets passed through, there are going to be dozens of MP's who are spectacularly angry. It's now normalised to humiliate and bring down your own government. She will not be able to govern and an election is inevitable. The fact they haven't called one is an acknowledgement they know they are finished.
A new right wing party/ies will replace them, but as any kind of serious force, the Conservative Party have resigned themselves to the dustbins of history over the last 3 years. They can't say they weren't warned.
A lot of what you say is true, but the Tories, whatever their faults (and they are legion imho), do have a knack for surviving, even after absolutely crushing defeats in Elections, as in 1906, 1945, 1966 and 1997.
There's the evidence of last night's Newport by-election - the Tories and Labour lost votes (to a small extent, admittedly) to Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the Lib Dems. UKIP increased their %age share too, but the Tories still finished a good second.
NilSatisOptimum
Player Valuation: £70m
The Conservative idealogical profit driven attack on housing standards is taking effect.
www.bbc.co.uk
The bonfire of regulations is having its predicted consequences.
www.architectsjournal.co.uk
Growing complaints about new-build houses
The Homeowners Alliance says more people are approaching them for help over defects with their homes.
www.bbc.co.uk
The bonfire of regulations is having its predicted consequences.
Cameron claims victory in bonfire of the Building Regulations
Prime minister David Cameron has boasted about plans to boost housebuilding by cutting 100 overlapping and ‘confusing’ standards for new homes
www.architectsjournal.co.uk
NilSatisOptimum
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Generally the Conservative party in essence is small conservative, seeks out incremental change, with a good dose of pragmatism and cool and calculated detached approach, until it comes to EU.
This issue they have with the EU has finished Thatcher Major, Cameron and now May, that’s a generation of Conservative PMs.
The years between Major and Cameron was supposed to exorcise the EU question within the Tory family. It has done no such thing, the divisions are deeper and more entrenched from either side of the Tory family, it’s now worse than any time before.
And for Newport West its history is interesting, It was Conservative until Paul Flynn in 1983, height of coal miner’s dispute came along and only just did he beat the Tory candidate it has swathes of shire like areas as well as urban. His personable approach went down well on the door step, of course close ally of Corbyn. However, Newport West has never been a safe seat.
It’s the LibDems who need to worry. And re-building UKiP that is eating away Conservative base, the whole reason the referendum was called in the first place. Not to mention strong suggestions Plaid are moving to the right of the spectrum and looking at aged rump Tory vote.
tsubaki
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Plaid are an utter disgrace, the party of surrender.
NilSatisOptimum
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Nationalism for you! But it bodes well as they vacate their corner of the spectrum either Labour of Greens will hover up those who won't move with them and there will be some.
Your first paragraph is spot on, sums up the Tories' troubles perfectly.
I take your point about the Lib Dems; they are all but dead in Wales atm and there's no obvious signs of any revival. I haven't seen any sign of Plaid moving to the right at all; what's your evidence for this? Genuine question.
NilSatisOptimum
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There has a!ways been the accusations of extending the Tory hand with Plaid Cymru , it went away for most of Woods tenure, however, it's serviced again in recent months.
Most Plaid supporters absolutely loathe the Tories, though, so I don't see how these rumours arise. Plaid's leader said recently that they'd never form a coalition with the Conservatives.
NilSatisOptimum
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Well it's discussion they are having, it was very much part of the recent leadership election. It's a question thats put to Adam Price (plaid leader) often on welsh politics shows. Nature abhors a vacuum and Conservatives have been busy creating a vacum as they lurch further to the right. And Plaid sit in the same left centre but opposed to an increasing and unprecedented welsh labour vote.
orchard
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Why?
I realise I'm going off topic a bit here, but I must take issue with the last part of your post. "Increasing and unprecedented Labour vote"? Granted the Labour vote in Wales went up in 2017 compared to 2015, but it's hardly at stratospheric levels. I can remember a time when Labour would easily get over 50% of the vote in Wales so their high 30s low 40s% is by no means "unprecedented". Their share of the vote in the Newport By-election was the lowest Labour vote for almost forty years.
NilSatisOptimum
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A party which has been in government for 10 years and still increasing its seats. Won 3 seats from the Tories, despite the great and the good from polling services and media predicting a catastrophe collapse because of Corbyn. Which unfortunately the then leader Jones somewhat bought into but later conceded after result, Corbyn was a positive influence in Wales.
Newport West 2019 did not have benefit of a media in election Purdah, and sadly no personable Paul Flynn.
Also I doubt much got past Brexit on the doorstep due to the timing. A good day at the office for Labour and remain.
tsubaki
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Because rather than developing and promoting a British identity, they have gone down the lazy road and look for inspiration to the Irish and Scots nats, pointing to a little bit of land and claiming it, whilst also claiming cultural and linguistic differences between "us" and "them" and inventing a glorious past in this bit of the island to justify it all.
In reality, British history is fundamentally different to that of the Irish and the Scots - we were all invaded by the English, but whilst they occupied defined lands already (the island of Ireland and the part of the mainland north of the wall respectively), the British people occupied the rest. All of what is now England (and a good chunk of Scotland) was British. If you read the surviving works of history, the genealogies and the legends they all refer to what Britain actually was - Arthur, Gildas, Yr Hen Ogledd, Macsen Wledig, the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles, even Bede on occasion talk about the British and events in Britain.
To edit that out and create a "Welsh" history of Glyndwr, Llewelyn, some other medieval stuff taking place in a clearly defined area and the Eisteddfod allows people to claim they've been oppressed but it also removes a massive chunk of who we actually are. All of this island is ours; we have no right to give it up to anyone - least of all to the people who have somehow managed to get us to refer to ourselves, in their language, as foreigners.
Somewhat bizarrely, the only person who I have ever heard point this out was Benjamin Zephaniah - who once correctly pointed out that the language called Welsh should be taught at English schools because it (and Cornish fwiw) is a part of our culture.
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