Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

[catcherintherye]

As an American citizen with the right to vote, I honestly think Trump will win again. In 2016 every poll/expert had Clinton winning easily and all of these experts and commentators should have lost their jobs. Feel free to watch the YouTube videos when the race turned in Trumps favor.

Yes Trump is a loud mouth and egotistical. His Twitter page should also be shut down. I believe there are still a large number of moderates on both sides of the aisle (the silent majority) who are afraid to speak out and will let their votes do the talking.

The Democratic Party should instill a rapid policy of actually backing Law Enforcement, condemning the looting and anarchy taking place and nullify Trumps Law and Order campaign which sounds appealing to a lot of moderate people.

I think it is a sad reflection that a dinosaur like Biden is deemed the best choice to run on the Democratic ticket. If Biden takes the election, he will have a short spell in charge before Harris is sworn in due to Biden’s diminishing health. I also feel it is important for the Democratic Party to feel the Bern, and really mobilize the grass roots support and appeal Sanders had. His supporters enthusiasm was impressive.

It also doesn’t look good when Pelosi is caught getting a nice haircut and blow dry that was scheduled by her aids, when no one else has that privilege. Instead of eating some humble pie and apologizing and moving on, she holds a press conference screaming that it was all a setup.

You also have Mayor Kenny in Philadelphia caught on camera eating inside a restaurant in Maryland without a mask, while indoor dining is banned in Philadelphia and many people lose their livelihoods. Although these incidents are trivial they still generate bad press and may encourage some voters to not vote for anyone.

It's an interesting perspective mate, and you could be right.

Just one issue, I don't think there was anywhere near as big an error as people think in 2016. The polls were out by just under 2%. I mean it's a slight advantage to Trump but not a collosal one (mainly due to education imputting on the polls). You also had this allied to the electoral college going from working very favourably for the Dems to working very favourably for the Republicans. A 2% swing saw 80 seats change.

That has created the idea that everyone was miles out. The original error was 2%. We don't know how the electoral college will play. It could be Trump wins while being behind by 2% that Biden wins by 4% and has a 60 seat majority, or wins by just over 7% and has a just under a 100 seat majority. It's difficult to really tell at this point, as you can see, between a 5% difference you have a very vast range of results. 5% is only just over the margin of error.

 

[BlueTX]

I suppose when I look at the numbers I try to suspend my biases and just look at the lines. The lines say, at least to date, Trump can't get any sustained momentum in the way he didin 2016 with Clinton. If you were on his team, it would be a concern. He did get good momentum in September 2016, so maybe this is his moment.

I'm expecting a shakeup, and soon, at Tweetie Campaign HQ. They are getting pounded from the middle and right via the outside groups like RVAT and Lincoln Project and it is having an effect in places like Arizona, which he must win. Yet the messaging, as you point out, is largely the same as 2016.

He won in a fluke in 2016. He has to expand his vote. I've never understood the strategy of running another negative/outsider campaign. He's the POTUS.

"It's not my fault - they did this" is fairly lame platform.

 

[Tir Eoghain Blue]

It's an interesting perspective mate, and you could be right.

Just one issue, I don't think there was anywhere near as big an error as people think in 2016. The polls were out by just under 2%. I mean it's a slight advantage to Trump but not a collosal one (mainly due to education imputting on the polls). You also had this allied to the electoral college going from working very favourably for the Dems to working very favourably for the Republicans. A 2% swing saw 80 seats change.

That has created the idea that everyone was miles out. The original error was 2%. We don't know how the electoral college will play. It could be Trump wins while being behind by 2% that Biden wins by 4% and has a 60 seat majority, or wins by just over 7% and has a just under a 100 seat majority. It's difficult to really tell at this point, as you can see, between a 5% difference you have a very vast range of results. 5% is only just over the margin of error.

I’m interested to see how long it actually takes for the final polls to be tallied. I feel like the grass root Democrats seem to be more active in my area in regards to going out and knocking doors and reaching people through text message than the Republican contingent at this point in time

 

[tsubaki]

I've made my views on Biden quite clear in the Biden thread and they are quite mixed! However objectively he is probably fighting the campaign they need him to fight to win.

Trump wants to fight a very negative campaign, and make people angry about the opponent to get votes. I think thats where the Republican party is at now. They've faced a woman and a black man the last 3 cycles so it's kind of their go to mantra now. The economy is slowing, and the US role in the world is declining.

In that context Biden is very bland. A white old, fairly centrist figure. They can't even use the red scare tactics, it has to be "he's an agent of the red scare"- it loses it's potency.

I suppose when I look at the numbers I try to suspend my biases and just look at the lines. The lines say, at least to date, Trump can't get any sustained momentum in the way he didin 2016 with Clinton. If you were on his team, it would be a concern. He did get good momentum in September 2016, so maybe this is his moment.

Indeed, and I think the best campaign they could fight is to not attack Biden at all and push the surrogates out, especially Ivanka. If they locked Trump away and told everyone he was too busy dealing with the coronavirus that would probably also help.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

betting odds:

Trump @2,30

Biden @1,80

both are good ones, I would go for it if I was a betting man

 

[BlueTX]

I’m interested to see how long it actually takes for the final polls to be tallied. I feel like the grass root Democrats seem to be more active in my area in regards to going out and knocking doors and reaching people through text message than the Republican contingent at this point in time

Mind sharing where you reside? If you do, totally cool.

 

[catcherintherye]

Indeed, and I think the best campaign they could fight is to not attack Biden at all and push the surrogates out, especially Ivanka. If they locked Trump away and told everyone he was too busy dealing with the coronavirus that would probably also help.

Yes. Trump is their biggest liability at present. I mean the fact that they fall (further) behind in Wisconsin havign had a conference about law and order, in a state where there is rioting sort of indicates that.

 

[Ruairi77]

I’m interested to see how long it actually takes for the final polls to be tallied. I feel like the grass root Democrats seem to be more active in my area in regards to going out and knocking doors and reaching people through text message than the Republican contingent at this point in time

the dems have a good ground game in Tyrone alright!

 

[Tir Eoghain Blue]

Mind sharing where you reside? If you do, totally cool.

Philadelphia suburbs. Historically a democratic stronghold in Pa

 

[catcherintherye]

I'm expecting a shakeup, and soon, at Tweetie Campaign HQ. They are getting pounded from the middle and right via the outside groups like RVAT and Lincoln Project and it is having an effect in places like Arizona, which he must win. Yet the messaging, as you point out, is largely the same as 2016.

He won in a fluke in 2016. He has to expand his vote. I've never understood the strategy of running another negative/outsider campaign. He's the POTUS.

"It's not my fault - they did this" is fairly lame platform.

I said a while ago, Trump needs to reach out more. Melanias speech at the Republican congress was good. I also liked their "Joe Biden asumes all black people vote for us, but we can think for ourselves" line which was quite adept. You feel- yes that could get inroads, then he goes on TV and starts waffling about anarchists, soup and slagging the family of the victim off and you think it's 2 steps forward 5 steps back with him.

I'm not sure he's either capable or willing to do what is needed to win. He's not facing a Clinton, a woman or a black man. He's not coming off the back of 8 years of Democratic rule, with a black president. Invoking the wrath of middle America will not be as easy against Biden.

As you say, when you're the incumbent to be slating the sttae of the country also doesn't work. People talk about 68 and 80, but the candidates who did it were not in office. I do think that makes a difference.

As I said to @peteblue yesterday, I actually think there is probably a road map to success for the Republicans on law and order, but I don't think he's the guy to tactfully do it.

 

[catcherintherye]

betting odds:

Trump @2,30

Biden @1,80

both are good ones, I would go for it if I was a betting man

Massively behind Biden with that bet.

 

[tsubaki]

I said a while ago, Trump needs to reach out more. Melanias speech at the Republican congress was good. I also liked their "Joe Biden asumes all black people vote for us, but we can think for ourselves" line which was quite adept. You feel- yes that could get inroads, then he goes on TV and starts waffling about anarchists, soup and slagging the family of the victim off and you think it's 2 steps forward 5 steps back with him.

I'm not sure he's either capable or willing to do what is needed to win. He's not facing a Clinton, a woman or a black man. He's not coming off the back of 8 years of Democratic rule, with a black president. Invoking the wrath of middle America will not be as easy against Biden.

As you say, when you're the incumbent to be slating the sttae of the country also doesn't work. People talk about 68 and 80, but the candidates who did it were not in office. I do think that makes a difference.

As I said to @peteblue yesterday, I actually think there is probably a road map to success for the Republicans on law and order, but I don't think he's the guy to tactfully do it.

TBF there are lots of roadmaps to victory, given how central Trump is to the race and how defined the vast majority of people are. Get rid of him and I think almost anyone (even a Trump kid) beats Biden, simply because a lot of the easy argument for voting against the GOP disappears.

 

[BlueTX]

Philadelphia suburbs. Historically a democratic stronghold in Pa

Thanks. Yes, indeed a stronghold and a key reason Clinton lost the state was poor overall turnout in 2016 in Philly. Glad to hear your confirmation of the high-levels of activity there.

 

[WA Toffee]

must admit, I really don't know anything about Biden's policies, but you would have to have something a bit wrong with you to vote for trump

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Just looking at a couple of Trump's recent tweets...

The one thing that I just don't get... people go on about how he's "strong" and "tough"... but I've rarely seen such a whiny little **** in my life.

Most powerful man on the planet and he just whines and whinges constantly about how badly done to he is.