Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election
- Thread starter riddick
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I can't really stand Biden, but his biggest attribute is he's not Trump. I suspect this will be the case of most of his voters.
This is why, in part, Trump coming out and doing or saying ridiculous horrible things is the worst strategy he can do. He is the main reason people vote for Biden. If he just shut up and said nothing, Biden's support would get a bit shaky. His ego won't allow that though.
Polling at 49% in PA with ~5% of the vote outstanding is far from "very bad" for any candidate.
Not necessarily. Because of the quirks of Maine and Nebraska (which award Electors by Congressional District), if the only things that changed between 2016 and 2020 were for Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona to flip - we'd stand at a 269-269 tie.
Have I mentioned how much I cannot stand the archaic Electoral College system?
You know, thinking about it I wonder if that Supreme Court decision saying States have to vote how their popular vote goes is a way to try to head off that National Popular Vote Interstate Compact that a lot of states have been voting in favor of. It would have made the electoral college completely superfluous if they had enough states to do so.
Supreme Court Unanimously Rules that States May Require Presidential Electors to be Faithful
On July 6, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states have the power to require presidential electors to vote for their party’s candidate for President. All 9 justices agreed with the result (with 8 justices agreeing to the majority opinion). Supreme Court decision in Chiafalo v.
StAbLe GeNiUs
Yes I'm assuming the Dems win the above as they are ahead currently.
I think it's very bad in the context that Trump has made substantial inroads into the lead in a key state.
As I've said, his lead is hoding much firmer in other states and in Wisconsin even extending. So it's a mixed picture.
What Biden is doing quite well is if Trump has a couple of good days Biden steps in and stems the momentum. in 2016 Trump would put 2-3 weeks together where he would really close the gap. Currently he has a good couple of days, and then Biden steps in and stems the momentum. Its happened 3 times already.
August 3-5th Trump closed the gap from an 8.3 to a 7.6.Biden stepped in, a week later it was back to an 8.3 and 3 weeks later it peaked at a 9.3. Then between August 25th-31st Trump cut the gap again, from a 9.3 to a 7.1 but again today Biden has stepped in and is now at a 7.4 and it again looks to be steadying again. You see similar in late July, Trump cuts the lead over a couple of days from an 8.8 to a 7.7 and and over the next week Biden just eases is back to a 8.3 lead.
For context, in 2016 Trump over a 20 day period is able to take a 5.4 Clinton lead into a 0.6 lead. Or across August he clways back a 7.5 deficit to a 2.5 deficit over the course of around 40 days.
I mean whether it's Biden, Trump, the campaigns, the onbective situation on the ground- Trump just can't get the sort of sustained momentum that he had in 2016 as yet. He has 1-5 good days and then Biden tends to jut steady the momentum over a 7-20 days period.
In 2016, is he polling around 3.5-4 behind and ends up being predicted to lose by that amount from this point. So in essence he doesn't really squeeze much more on Clinton here on in. In 2016 he hada good September, but Clinton had a good October. You can never fully predict such a race, but if Biden weathers this post conference boost for Trump and keeps the gap at +8 Trump is beginning to need snookers (if the polls are accrurate).
The other interesting take outs, are even though polls closed a bit post conference, Bidens reputation went up relative to Trumps. So the background numbers were ok for Biden. LIkewise, interestingly in Wisconsin, it bucks the trend and has actually swung towards Biden more, following the protests, which is a small sign that the Law and Order debate is probably not helping Trump.
August 3-5th Trump closed the gap from an 8.3 to a 7.6.Biden stepped in, a week later it was back to an 8.3 and 3 weeks later it peaked at a 9.3. Then between August 25th-31st Trump cut the gap again, from a 9.3 to a 7.1 but again today Biden has stepped in and is now at a 7.4 and it again looks to be steadying again. You see similar in late July, Trump cuts the lead over a couple of days from an 8.8 to a 7.7 and and over the next week Biden just eases is back to a 8.3 lead.
For context, in 2016 Trump over a 20 day period is able to take a 5.4 Clinton lead into a 0.6 lead. Or across August he clways back a 7.5 deficit to a 2.5 deficit over the course of around 40 days.
I mean whether it's Biden, Trump, the campaigns, the onbective situation on the ground- Trump just can't get the sort of sustained momentum that he had in 2016 as yet. He has 1-5 good days and then Biden tends to jut steady the momentum over a 7-20 days period.
In 2016, is he polling around 3.5-4 behind and ends up being predicted to lose by that amount from this point. So in essence he doesn't really squeeze much more on Clinton here on in. In 2016 he hada good September, but Clinton had a good October. You can never fully predict such a race, but if Biden weathers this post conference boost for Trump and keeps the gap at +8 Trump is beginning to need snookers (if the polls are accrurate).
The other interesting take outs, are even though polls closed a bit post conference, Bidens reputation went up relative to Trumps. So the background numbers were ok for Biden. LIkewise, interestingly in Wisconsin, it bucks the trend and has actually swung towards Biden more, following the protests, which is a small sign that the Law and Order debate is probably not helping Trump.
Tir Eoghain Blue
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As an American citizen with the right to vote, I honestly think Trump will win again. In 2016 every poll/expert had Clinton winning easily and all of these experts and commentators should have lost their jobs. Feel free to watch the YouTube videos when the race turned in Trumps favor.
Yes Trump is a loud mouth and egotistical. His Twitter page should also be shut down. I believe there are still a large number of moderates on both sides of the aisle (the silent majority) who are afraid to speak out and will let their votes do the talking.
The Democratic Party should instill a rapid policy of actually backing Law Enforcement, condemning the looting and anarchy taking place and nullify Trumps Law and Order campaign which sounds appealing to a lot of moderate people.
I think it is a sad reflection that a dinosaur like Biden is deemed the best choice to run on the Democratic ticket. If Biden takes the election, he will have a short spell in charge before Harris is sworn in due to Biden’s diminishing health. I also feel it is important for the Democratic Party to feel the Bern, and really mobilize the grass roots support and appeal Sanders had. His supporters enthusiasm was impressive.
It also doesn’t look good when Pelosi is caught getting a nice haircut and blow dry that was scheduled by her aids, when no one else has that privilege. Instead of eating some humble pie and apologizing and moving on, she holds a press conference screaming that it was all a setup.
You also have Mayor Kenny in Philadelphia caught on camera eating inside a restaurant in Maryland without a mask, while indoor dining is banned in Philadelphia and many people lose their livelihoods. Although these incidents are trivial they still generate bad press and may encourage some voters to not vote for anyone.
Yes Trump is a loud mouth and egotistical. His Twitter page should also be shut down. I believe there are still a large number of moderates on both sides of the aisle (the silent majority) who are afraid to speak out and will let their votes do the talking.
The Democratic Party should instill a rapid policy of actually backing Law Enforcement, condemning the looting and anarchy taking place and nullify Trumps Law and Order campaign which sounds appealing to a lot of moderate people.
I think it is a sad reflection that a dinosaur like Biden is deemed the best choice to run on the Democratic ticket. If Biden takes the election, he will have a short spell in charge before Harris is sworn in due to Biden’s diminishing health. I also feel it is important for the Democratic Party to feel the Bern, and really mobilize the grass roots support and appeal Sanders had. His supporters enthusiasm was impressive.
It also doesn’t look good when Pelosi is caught getting a nice haircut and blow dry that was scheduled by her aids, when no one else has that privilege. Instead of eating some humble pie and apologizing and moving on, she holds a press conference screaming that it was all a setup.
You also have Mayor Kenny in Philadelphia caught on camera eating inside a restaurant in Maryland without a mask, while indoor dining is banned in Philadelphia and many people lose their livelihoods. Although these incidents are trivial they still generate bad press and may encourage some voters to not vote for anyone.
Willie Thorne
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The Donald will piss it.
tsubaki
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TBF I am not sure Biden has much to do with it - yes, his campaign (so far at least) has avoided the idiocy of Clinton's in 2016, but how Trump is fighting this campaign is perhaps the biggest handicap to Trump's campaign.
For example, there is this focus on Biden's mental state; this might have worked but is never going to when Trump is (even in friendly interviews) banging on about planeloads of thugs, dark shadows and so on, drinking bleach and (worst of all) slurring his words all the time. If he hadn't used that attack, people would still probably look at Biden staring at the teleprompter and come to their own conclusions, but because Trump has clearly lost his mind all people see is "well, he isn't as mad as Trump".
Then there is the pandemic. Incompetence, the poor being disproportionately impacted and the structural faults of the US Healthcare system are things that enough of the electorate do not care about, as we've seen so often. What they probably won't forgive is clearly using a disaster for your own ends - as has been alleged over testing, over supply of equipment and as we will probably see with the vaccine (or rather a "vaccine").
Not that I disagree with your points but I always find it a bit...disingenuous when a haircut or a meal in a restaurant is seen as a disqualifier whilst taking away children from their parents when they are entering LEGALLY at the border, openly saying that you will gladly take away the safety net millions of seniors rely on to survive, colluding with a hostile foreign government to help rig an election, etcetc. It's weird that THOSE things are just brushed aside. Democrats hold their candidates to a massively higher standard than Republican voters do.
I've made my views on Biden quite clear in the Biden thread and they are quite mixed! However objectively he is probably fighting the campaign they need him to fight to win.
Trump wants to fight a very negative campaign, and make people angry about the opponent to get votes. I think thats where the Republican party is at now. They've faced a woman and a black man the last 3 cycles so it's kind of their go to mantra now. The economy is slowing, and the US role in the world is declining.
In that context Biden is very bland. A white old, fairly centrist figure. They can't even use the red scare tactics, it has to be "he's an agent of the red scare"- it loses it's potency.
I suppose when I look at the numbers I try to suspend my biases and just look at the lines. The lines say, at least to date, Trump can't get any sustained momentum in the way he didin 2016 with Clinton. If you were on his team, it would be a concern. He did get good momentum in September 2016, so maybe this is his moment.
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