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Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election
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tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
This is reltively crude analysis and certainly open to challenge, but it would be something like the belief that if someone was motivated by voting for the anti-socialist candidate as their main motivation, it won't make much difference if you have Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Lenin or Castro on the ballot, they are going to lump them all in as socialist. However you stad a chance of winning more of other voters, who may be motivated to vote for a candidate beyond him hust not being Donald Trump.
Quite how many of each voter exists is open to question, but the hypothesis is a legitimate one
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
I think it’s Trump-electorate specific.
Just a couple of thoughts on this stuff. Firstly, I would imagine a recount would mean re-counting all ballots, potentialy even ones through out (which will be more likely to be democrat). That would be bad for Trump. Normally re-counts tend to lead to a couple of hundred vote swing either way. Biden will be well beyond that. Good luck proving, beyond reasonable doubt 10k woth of votes are each out of Nevada.
The 2nd is, the rhetoric of straight to the Supreme court seems a long way off. He is bothering much lower courts at this stage.
TN Toffee
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Yes. There was a lot of hand wringing over whether he should have been allowed to vote there or in NY. Serious question though, shouldn’t ANY sitting president be casting his vote as a D.C. resident?
Yeah but he has moved his residency to Florida.
Although he claims his home is Mar a Lago which there is some debate if that can be claimed as a personal residence.
Biden has osed the gap further in PA and took the last trunch of urban votes buy about 9:1. That seems consistent with Detroit too. Trumps leads is down to 130k. Looks increasingly good for Biden.
Even Georgia, with up to 50k left, Biden is 18k behind. Mainly Atlanta and another urban area to vote.
One interesting cavaet from that, is apparently there are 25k ballots not counted, which if a recount happened some may be included (and again, probably more likely to be democrat).
Thats the interesting point on these recounts, it can work both ways. I'd be amazed if BIden loses Georgia he won't go for a recount as he's going to be well within the 25k region.
Even Georgia, with up to 50k left, Biden is 18k behind. Mainly Atlanta and another urban area to vote.
One interesting cavaet from that, is apparently there are 25k ballots not counted, which if a recount happened some may be included (and again, probably more likely to be democrat).
Thats the interesting point on these recounts, it can work both ways. I'd be amazed if BIden loses Georgia he won't go for a recount as he's going to be well within the 25k region.
I think it likely a combination of a general reduction in response rates and a specific reluctance to talk to “fake media” by voters more likely to swing right.
Some states go for a an auto recount if below a certain % gap, not sure if that applies to GA
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
UK mate, not England...
Bideneverton
Player Valuation: £500k
trumps lead down to 133k ish in pa now... i hope there is enough for biden come on...
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