Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

[BirkenheadBlue]

Whole lot states will flip

Which ones...? For the third time.

And which ones (totalling about 130 votes) did he lose today?

 

[TheFinnFan]

Which ones...? For the third time.

And which ones (totalling about 130 votes) did he lose today?

Lets start roughly North Star state will flip

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Lets start roughly North Star state will flip

Excellent, an actual answer!

And which states make up the 120 votes he’s lost today (by your own estimation)? Also, what’s caused this catastrophic collapse?

 

[neil999]

Lets start roughly North Star state will flip

Do you reckon he has chance of flipping canada?

 

[Blue 1]

Whole lot states will flip

Which ones?

 

[Blue 1]

Lets start roughly North Star state will flip

Not entirely out of the realm of possibility, but fairly unlikely.

Where else?

 

[Martin Alvito]

Yes absoutely. If he is 9 points behind on polling day, his chances are probably 2-3%. So unless he starts closing you will see a drift. Thrre is a bottom ceiling for him though, in a 2 horse race.

Trump's chances could approach infinitesimal if his chances in states whose electoral value totaled 270 or more were infinitesimal.

Such a distribution is highly unlikely in the present environment, which generates the floor you allude to. All I'm saying is that such a floor is not guaranteed for all prospective candidates across time and space in a two-horse election.

It's also worth noting that there are very good reasons to expect the polls to not correlate as closely to actual vote tallies as they did in years past. Nate Silver has more or less explicitly admitted that his model doesn't account for that problem since it's impossible to quantify with data the magnitude and direction of a predicted effect.

No way he turns up at the handover. He’ll have a rally in Florida or something

Probably will have his staff take the 'J's and 'B's off the White House keyboards, too.

 

[TheFinnFan]

Excellent, an actual answer!

And which states make up the 120 votes he’s lost today (by your own estimation)? Also, what’s caused this catastrophic collapse?

I believe he hasnt lot single vote yet

 

[Martin Alvito]

Cool, so somehow he is outperforming EVERY poll. Come on now, explain how each one is wrong.

Trump is able to bias the results by 5%+ through litigation and voter suppression, plus polling errors in his favor driven by social desirability effects.

It's a very real possibility. I'd call it 1 in 4 to 1 in 3, rather than 1 in 10.

 

[TheFinnFan]

Do you reckon he has chance of flipping canada?

No because Canada is not part of Zimbabwe

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

I believe he hasnt lot single vote yet

But you had him at +320 earlier, and your later prediction was only +62...

 

[summerisle]

Yo @RAFUH...

I read that as Marxist poll. lol

 

[Tin-Tin]

If anyone wants to follow the voting, this guy is brilliant



Or

 

[TheFinnFan]

But you had him at +320 earlier, and your later prediction was only +62...

Lot less is enough yano....

 

[TheFinnFan]

Excellent, an actual answer!

And which states make up the 120 votes he’s lost today (by your own estimation)? Also, what’s caused this catastrophic collapse?

Thats a fruit salad of an answer and it doesnt Make sense what so ever. Red wave coming