Im genuinely shocked anyone is doing mail in ballots this year. Especially with one party literally saying the quiet part out loud how they want to invalidate those votes because they probably go against that party.
Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election
- Thread starter riddick
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Im genuinely shocked anyone is doing mail in ballots this year. Especially with one party literally saying the quiet part out loud how they want to invalidate those votes because they probably go against that party.
TN Toffee
Player Valuation: £25m
I think we can stop talking about Republicans saying the quiet part out loud. They don’t even bother attempting to hide what they’re trying to do anymore. The whole ACB confirmation made that clear.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Even with incumbency advantage, he could dip below that chance with the right poll numbers. Those numbers are pretty unlikely to occur in our present, polarized environment, though.
Trump's declining chances are probably more related to the improving certainty of polling as predictor as an election approaches, than they are due to any widening of the margin between the candidates.
summerisle
The rain, it raineth every day
An 1884 map ; are these nicknames still apposite ? Obviously not much happened in Utah lol
An 1884 map ; are these nicknames still apposite ? Obviously not much happened in Utah lol
A few colleges use those names as mascots. Only pro Team I saw on a skim was the NY Knicks.
4737carlin
Player Valuation: £90m
Mentalists
Ah bless them. Imagine them thinking their votes even matter given where they live. Talk about a pointless exercise and waste of gas (petrol).
Fools here, actually think Trump has a chance of gaining in California, especially taking more votes in Southern California.
Given Clinton had a clean sweep and the only areas that were leaning right were desert regions and small inland towns and communities
TheFinnFan
Finners
Can you feel it folks....that creeping feeling
It's Trump +320
It's Trump +320
Yeah. Would be a disappointing number of felonies he will be charged for. *sigh*
BirkenheadBlue
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Always keen to hear your informed analyses.
In which states are you expecting Trump to pick up the extra 125 electoral college votes he needs to get to a margin of +320?
In fact I'll be generous and assume that the 2 faithless electors who didn't cast their vote for him last time fall into line this time round... So just the 123 required.
Look forward to your response.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
Socially distanced though.
Yes absoutely. If he is 9 points behind on polling day, his chances are probably 2-3%. So unless he starts closing you will see a drift. Thrre is a bottom ceiling for him though, in a 2 horse race.
Yes all of this. A big mistake in politics generally is to only use the last election as your barometer. As you have said, in both 2008 and 2012 Obama out performed polls and got the advantage of the EC. That certainty of thinking that it's alays what Democrats do really contributed to the 2016 slight miscalculation. You see some of the reverse now after 2016 that it can only break towards the Republicans.
When you look at elections you tend to see there's errors in either direction fairly equally.
However in the context of this race, the potential for error only suits 1 side. If there's no error Biden wins. If there's an error for Biden, Biden wins. If there's an error on Trumps side, Trump could win. So obviously the more error prone the polls are, the more potential Trump is to win.
I do think the context of the debate will be vastly different in 2-3 weeks. Obama won by 8% in 2008 and won heavily. Biden is further ahead than that currently as a snapshot. I remember the commentary after 2008, that the Republicans were finished and McCain was a joke figure. Trump will quite quickly be viewed as such.
The other cavaet with this, is you realise between 2% Democratic and 8% Democrat win, you have a huge scale of results from a narrow Trump win to a big Biden win. When the poll of polls sits at around the 9% mark it is very close. Quite a small movement in the polls has quite a profound effect on how the election turns out.
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