Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

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That's kind of sitting on the fence. I want that job where I can predict with some certainty one of them will win.
Then Dave is your guy, unlike 2016 he has been sounding increasingly confident all month.


In a move that will surprise no-one, I’ll share the wine guzzling fence with Kristen and worry about the one dice roll that has Trump with a narrow win!
 
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still ticking (slowly) in the right direction.

I think there is a ceiling for Trump that we are approaching. He probably doesn't go much lower than 6 or 7%.

Hes an incumbent, who has already shown he can beat the polls (albeit in a manner far below what would be needed to win at this point). However both of those factors give him a chance. Essentially there may be a big polling error. All orthodox reading of the numbers is hes done, and has been for a while, but there's always the chance of an error.
 
there's always the chance of an error.
In either direction.

In 2012 the Romney campaign were convinced they would win despite being down slightly in the polls in several swing states. Obama overperformed the polls. At this time in 2016 the district polls started showing movement to Tweetie that wasn't reflected in state/national polling - especially in PA, MI and WI.

That's not happening this time. In fact, the Biden lead is holding or increasing in key areas of those states.
 
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