Current Affairs Stocks and shares and stuff

[SerenityNigh]

I trade almost 100% off technicals. I avoid fundamentals at all costs. You get caught up in the 'noise'. Buying pretty much anything in March 2020 after the covid collapse was almost free money.

 

[SerenityNigh]

It's funny that, I'm almost the opposite!

I cant get my head round technicals, but love looking at balance sheets and cash flow statements highlighting inaccuracies.

I do one small bit of technical. I like the Stoch RSI line, on a weekly setting for certain equities (typically liquid strong stocks).

I can never get people who mix the two. Often you are looking for opposite things from each approach.

And yea March 2020 was free money. But even so from a fundamental viewpoint. Recessions and crashes are like Christmas for a fundamental guy. You just sit waiting for them, it's a really odd way of thinking!

Yes, there are definitely two types of trade, but I can't figure out how to combine them. Either you trade against the value of the stock or against the value of the trade (ie, other traders). Both make a lot of sense. That said, "technicals" IMO are a lot of nonsense; like measuring the temperature and thinking it has meaning while ignoring barometric pressure.

 

[SerenityNigh]

I look at the long term chart for any given fund and once I decide if I think it is going to maintain its current trend or has started to reverse an existing trend I use Fibos to ascertain likely levels it will target over a particular time frame.

I use option strategies like ladders, butterflies or condors because they give you a bit of leeway on timing and you can target a range of prices for expiry. I try and stick to liquid funds so you can get in and out easily.

There are risks though, If prices blow out the top or bottom end of the structure too quickly you can get badly hurt.

From experience, determining direction isn't usually the issue, it's how far it will go over what timeframe.

So do you trade options exclusively or combine with held assets?

 

[SerenityNigh]

Interesting to see what happens to gold over the next few weeks. Russia may need to try to sell off some of its reserves

Listened to a planet money pod on that this morning; it was from friday before the SWIFT news (not that I entirely understand this). Basically Russia earns $400,000,000 daily from oil/gas sales and this comes in Western currencies, and so long as this doesn't get locked up they will have some cash to fund operations.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Interesting thread

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[SerenityNigh]

Yeah, I wondered about that. With restrictions on western banks transferring money into russian assets surely the best case scenario is that funds and ETFs are dead/untradeable until sanctions are lifted, which is clearly not good for anyone who holds these assets.

 

[catcherintherye]

Yeah, I wondered about that. With restrictions on western banks transferring money into russian assets surely the best case scenario is that funds and ETFs are dead/untradeable until sanctions are lifted, which is clearly not good for anyone who holds these assets.

There was fear of this recently re Alibaba in China. If it delists you wouldnt lose your money (or if you did it would be illegal, and currently it would be covered by FCA if purchase made through licensed broker). You never say never in this situation, but it's as secure as your mortgage.

If they were de listed, they could delisting elsewhere (probably Shanghai). Even if they went OTC (over the counter) you would still own the asset, but obviously not ideal.

The flip is, the assets are now exceptionally cheap, and may only get cheaper if a-list occurs. One value investor once said "buy when theres blood on the streets" somewhat flippantly but honestly it's not bad advise here.

I am looking at about 12 Russian equities currently, will probably do some further calculations this week, but I cant see a world where I dont purchase some.

 

[catcherintherye]

Yes, there are definitely two types of trade, but I can't figure out how to combine them. Either you trade against the value of the stock or against the value of the trade (ie, other traders). Both make a lot of sense. That said, "technicals" IMO are a lot of nonsense; like measuring the temperature and thinking it has meaning while ignoring barometric pressure.

I'm not really a believer they can be combined mate. As indicated they are often looking at opposite things. In technical trading you are looking for an increasing asset with momentum, in value investing you are looking for an unloved security that you want to go down further. I dont know how you get both.

I dont actually think macro "top down" fundamentals are fundamentals at all really. I basically pay no interest in macro pressure. If you are I vesting for 10 years, there will be a boom, there will be a bust, and you wont be able to predict when either will be, so I'm not sure why people bother. You want to find mispriced securities.

I think technicals are very good to show the buy/sell pressure. I've come to the conclusion that to maximise returns I want to be doing what 90% of the market isnt, so not sure what value that has.

It sounds a bit of a crummy thing to say, but I don't really see what I'm trying to do as trading. I see it as long term investing. I project outwards for 8 years (for the more growthier aspect) and with the more deep value stocks accept they wont turn around overnight.

What sort of time frames do you like to trade on? I'm not sure I could ever trade successfully.

 

[SerenityNigh]

I'm not really a believer they can be combined mate. As indicated they are often looking at opposite things. In technical trading you are looking for an increasing asset with momentum, in value investing you are looking for an unloved security that you want to go down further. I dont know how you get both.

I dont actually think macro "top down" fundamentals are fundamentals at all really. I basically pay no interest in macro pressure. If you are I vesting for 10 years, there will be a boom, there will be a bust, and you wont be able to predict when either will be, so I'm not sure why people bother. You want to find mispriced securities.

I think technicals are very good to show the buy/sell pressure. I've come to the conclusion that to maximise returns I want to be doing what 90% of the market isnt, so not sure what value that has.

It sounds a bit of a crummy thing to say, but I don't really see what I'm trying to do as trading. I see it as long term investing. I project outwards for 8 years (for the more growthier aspect) and with the more deep value stocks accept they wont turn around overnight.

What sort of time frames do you like to trade on? I'm not sure I could ever trade successfully.

What I mean is that a single trader could buy BRK on fundamentals and trade BTC on animal spirits (for example; not sure how you option crypto); doing the reverse on either is madness, but maybe the right personality can hold fire in his/her hand and not get burned. My skepticism is that few people can probably switch gears so easily, but there are definitely some who can do that.

 

[roydo]

(or if you did it would be illegal, and currently it would be covered by FCA if purchase

made through licensed broker)

You sure about that?

 

[SerenityNigh]

There was fear of this recently re Alibaba in China. If it delists you wouldnt lose your money (or if you did it would be illegal, and currently it would be covered by FCA if purchase made through licensed broker). You never say never in this situation, but it's as secure as your mortgage.

If they were de listed, they could delisting elsewhere (probably Shanghai). Even if they went OTC (over the counter) you would still own the asset, but obviously not ideal.

The flip is, the assets are now exceptionally cheap, and may only get cheaper if a-list occurs. One value investor once said "buy when theres blood on the streets" somewhat flippantly but honestly it's not bad advise here.

I am looking at about 12 Russian equities currently, will probably do some further calculations this week, but I cant see a world where I dont purchase some.

I guess my concern here is that you get locked into an asset for months when it is untraceable and you can only watch it lose value when you might have wanted to trade out of your position. But I don't really know how it works for things like this.

 

[Yid4life]

So do you trade options exclusively or combine with held assets?

Options exclusively. In February I did quite a few short term expiry punts due to current volatility and had a bit of a windfall on LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) where I pinned the landing strip (price range at expiry) perfectly.

https://www.etf.com/LQD#overview

 

[SerenityNigh]

Options exclusively. In February I did quite a few short term expiry punts due to current volatility and had a bit of a windfall on LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) where I pinned the landing strip (price range at expiry) perfectly.

https://www.etf.com/LQD#overview

How did you learn to trade options? Have experience in some professional capacity? Read a book? Just started punching orders and figured it out?

 

[Yid4life]

How did you learn to trade options? Have experience in some professional capacity? Read a book? Just started punching orders and figured it out?

I worked as a dealer
/broker for many years in the City.