peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
*engages @Yid4life and @SerenityNigh as personal financial consultants……
Current Affairs Stocks and shares and stuff
- Thread starter Paris
- Start date
- Status
How do you mean by switch gears mate?
Would love to get paid a retainer to give people various advice, but the truth is (1) when we consult for work i'm always stressed about being exactly right, not just mostly right, because each client is a single sample, and (2) i've got a huge book on my desk that describes options trading and I can't finish it because it makes my head hurt and I'm not even sure if I did finish it I'd trade options anyway.
Do you have a particular period for expiry mate? Like 30 day puts/calls?
I'm largely throwing darts here, but I suspect that most people have certain biases that are drilled into their personality. Switching from being fundamentals driven to being technicals driven is probably as unlikely as switching from being risk averse to opportunistic. I suspect it would require both intellectual and emotional discipline to look at each trade individually not just from an intellectual position but also from a decision making position and be able to execute various trades from distinct principles and not get it all mixed together.
Then again, maybe what I'm saying is all bollox (is that the term?)
I wouldnt bet my house on it. It's a quite a unique situation.
My understanding would be, if tbe broker offers it, and they are compliant with FCA regs, you would be covered.
Lots of big pension funds will have Russian equities as part of broad trackers. I'm not sure it's easy/legal to just throw them out as worthless.
Some of this is me extrapolating the information given around Alibaba in China if it were de-listed. If we formally went to war with Russia, I have no idea though. I'm not sure many people would.
I'm still reading around it/consulting on it. It's the final piece for me now. The valuations are incredible, and I am happy to hold for a long enough period, Im happy to accept a company going OTC for a prolonged period, but I wouldnt invest in anything that did not give me FCA protection.
What are your thoughts on it mate?
Yes.
I wouldnt know really mate, as trading isnt really what I would do.
I think they use macro fundamental trends, to find sectors they like, and use technical analysis to then find companies that are on the up. I dont understand it really, but that's the theory.
I'll be honest, over a full cycle I'm not sure it works
.
To be honest I'm not even suggesting something that complex. For instance, I know Apple has huge marketshare (or "moat") and is aggressively buying back shares; that makes me comfortable buying them when I think the price makes sense. I also know that there is a lot of trading action that makes sense on crypto, given the hysteria in the sector. What I don't trust myself to do is make a fundamentals trade on Apple and a technicals trade on crypto without subconsciously trying to read the technicals on Apple or impart my fundamentals into crypto. Once you buy an asset or a trade, you start believing in it one way or another, and you can get your head twisted too many ways to think clearly.
That's why I make vanilla trades (vanilla as a descriptor, not a commodity).
Yid4life
Player Valuation: £40m
I rarely trade in long dated expiries. Generally between one week and four-five weeks.
On apple, how do you know when the price is right? That I think is the critical part. That part should be objective, shouldn't it?
The same on technicals with Bitcoin. I don't do much technical stuff, but I'd imagine you want x,y and z and if it fills that criteria you buy?
If that makes sense?
I don't know the price is right, but I'm comfortable. That's one of my 3 non-index buys. They have huge market share, continue to beat earnings, have relatively low PE (under 30 currently) and are aggressively buying back shares with cash. Of course, it could all implode any day but I feel much better about their market, their market share, and the relative price than a lot of tech or even commerce trades. For instance, I'm not a huge fan of AMZN, and for comparison TSLA is a wet fart.
Yes good rational.
How long are you wanting to hold them for? It sounds like your rational is very late Buffet and Charlie Monger.
Have you heard of Dollar Cost Averaging?
It sounds like you have a good system in place.
most of our assets are in managed funds, so we effectively dollar cost average. i only actively trade in what is really a "savings" account. I stick money in this account vs my bank and then pull it down when i need it; the only time i've ever sold BRK was when i needed cash. other funds are basically sold on a whim, whenever i feel like it makes sense (not very rational!) because i need money or the trade has managed well. but that's basically how i manage it--this account earns better than the savings rate at my local bank, that's my standard. (and it's not a lot of money I actively trade either, although such statements are always relative).
*but generally i am long/hold on what i buy, although i do have sell orders at predetermined (and somewhat high) strikes just in case the markets move and I was not watching
*and I wouldn't necessarily call what I do "good" or a "system" but I'll sell my advice to pete for 50 quid a month
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
- Status