I look at the long term chart for any given fund and once I decide if I think it is going to maintain its current trend or has started to reverse an existing trend I use Fibos to ascertain likely levels it will target over a particular time frame.
I use option strategies like ladders, butterflies or condors because they give you a bit of leeway on timing and you can target a range of prices for expiry. I try and stick to liquid funds so you can get in and out easily.
There are risks though, If prices blow out the top or bottom end of the structure too quickly you can get badly hurt.
From experience, determining direction isn't usually the issue, it's how far it will go over what timeframe.
I see.
So essentially you are looking at trends, and use Fibonacci to decipher when to exit/enter?
Are you working off daily charts? Weekly charts? It all sounds really interesting and probably a bit complex for me.
I use options a bit myself, but within value investments we seem to do it the opposite way. Once you work out a company you would buy, at say 50, you will sell puts at say 45. If it hits that point you buy it and have the asset. If it doesnt, you keep.the premium (which is actually quite a handy way to add 8-10% p/a).
Laddering in trading is buying as it goes up isnt it? Up to what, say 2% of your portfolio? Again its mad, as I'd do the opposite but downwards with fundamentals. You want the stock to go down to buy more. We are a weird bunch though!
Any reason you never fancied fundamental analysis?
I quite like the concept of technical analysis, but it's just information overload for me.