Run In

[Dylan]

Everybodies saying it. "We've lost 5th. 5th is Villas" etc etc.

Lets look at what is left.

• Everton 62 points
• Aston Villa 59 points

As you can see, we are currently leading Villa by 3 points.

Lets assume Villa win both their games, that puts them on 65 points. For us to get by, that means a minimum of 4 points from our last two.

I am chalking 3 points up against Newcastle, they may be 'in-form' right now, but they still have a clueless moron with no tactical acumen in charge, pretty much relying on his players to pull him through.

Arsenal is where 5th will be won or lost. We come away from there with anything and we are in the UEFA again.

If this whole scenario comes about, the table looks like this:

• Everton 66 points
• Aston Villa 65 points

Goal difference won't matter, it is only 1 in Villa's favour right now, but their rampant goalscoring won't continue, they got their 15 against poor sides (and they only got two today because we bleedin' let them)

We will bag 5th and qualify, no question.

COME ON YOU BLUES!!!

 

[McBain]

Everybodies saying it. "We've lost 5th. 5th is Villas" etc etc.

Whos saying that? You?

 

[Andriy.EFC]

Hope you're right. I can also see Villa slipping up to be honest.

 

[toffeestillidie]

Whos saying that? You?

a lot of moaners on this forum from what i've seen.

 

[toffeestillidie]

the main part of your analysis dylan that i disagree with is about goal difference,

villa are ahead by 1 on difference i believe right now, but they're down for 3 points. for them to get the sort of results that would close down that 3 point gap, its likely that their difference would improve substantialy with respect to ours

for instance, if they beat both west ham and wigan by one goal each, and we lose to arsenal, we'd have to beat newcastle by 3 just to tie it on goal difference. i'm not sure what it goes to if gd is tied, is it away goals or goals for? a 3 goal margin of victory against newcastle isn't likely as it is, and we'd have to win by more if villa win by more than 1 in either of their games.

so i'd say goal difference does matter, its not about villa scoring, its just about the fact that since we're ahead on points, for them to catch up, our differential would have to drop and theirs would have to improve (most likely)

basically we need to finish ahead on points, which is definitely doable.

with the arsenal game, i think since wenger has nothing to play for at this point he'll throw in as many young players as he can, my guess is walcott will start for sure, and probably a couple other developing players, which could either make it an easy game or if one of them shines a really really hard one. i'd prefer that the next arsenal young superstar doesn't emerge against us

newcastle are running out of steam and have little to play for, this in form crap won't last

 

[toffeestillidie]

and another thing, i'm still not buying this in form bullshit for newcastle, their wins have been against all relegation battlers except tottenham, and would you call pretty recent draws against brum and west ham in form? their good form is [Poor language removed] form for us, no reason to respect them.

 

[Neiler]

Simple as, four points and its ours! I

I fancy us actually to win at the emirates, Arsenal have a lot of players out at the mo, and if they win tonight they have third, very little for them to play for. We certainly gave them a game the last time we played and we have done well away form home against them over the past few years.

We went to Chelsea in the last two games of the season last year and got a point and we have a better squad this year.

 

[Reidy's Bottle Of Grecian]

the main part of your analysis dylan that i disagree with is about goal difference,

villa are ahead by 1 on difference i believe right now, but they're down for 3 points. for them to get the sort of results that would close down that 3 point gap, its likely that their difference would improve substantialy with respect to ours

for instance, if they beat both west ham and wigan by one goal each, and we lose to arsenal, we'd have to beat newcastle by 3 just to tie it on goal difference. i'm not sure what it goes to if gd is tied, is it away goals or goals for? a 3 goal margin of victory against newcastle isn't likely as it is, and we'd have to win by more if villa win by more than 1 in either of their games.

so i'd say goal difference does matter, its not about villa scoring, its just about the fact that since we're ahead on points, for them to catch up, our differential would have to drop and theirs would have to improve (most likely)

basically we need to finish ahead on points, which is definitely doable.

with the arsenal game, i think since wenger has nothing to play for at this point he'll throw in as many young players as he can, my guess is walcott will start for sure, and probably a couple other developing players, which could either make it an easy game or if one of them shines a really really hard one. i'd prefer that the next arsenal young superstar doesn't emerge against us

newcastle are running out of steam and have little to play for, this in form crap won't last

it goes to a pastie-off, thats why chico is on his way back.....just in case. sandbach or keele services is the probably playoff venue, been in training for years for this myself.
you get to choose your brand/type like the players do with boots, i myself will be going for the Hampsons chilli variety.
as for wenger, lets pray to god that he doesn't play his league cup yougsters that played at analfield last year.

 

[Sim]

I know this may seem pessimistic, but I'm basing it on logic and form. I think we'll probably loose to Arsenal and pick up a point off Newcastle. And I can see Villa picking up 4 points from their remaining fixtures.

So as gloomy as it may seem, my prediction for our finishing position is this:

5. Villa 63 points
6. Everton 63 points

But with Villa finishing above us on goal difference. Lets be honest you just know its our damned luck that the year we finally finish with a respectable goal difference is the year it wont be good enough to gaurantee europe!

Hopefully in two games I can look back and be proved wrong.

 

[zero]

Arsenal wont be up for the game, they have nothing left to play for so I'm pretty confident that Arsene wont play a full strength side. He's probably sent the majority of the team off on their jollies. I think we can nick a win there. 3pts.

We'll beat Newcastle, 3pts.

I figured it as we'll get 6 from 6 and keep 5th spot.

 

[Sim]

Arsenal wont be up for the game, they have nothing left to play for so I'm pretty confident that Arsene wont play a full strength side. He's probably sent the majority of the team off on their jollies. I think we can nick a win there. 3pts.

We'll beat Newcastle, 3pts.

I figured it as we'll get 6 from 6 and keep 5th spot.

But if you look at the current form guides:
Everton 14th
v
Arsenal 8th
Newcastle 2nd

Villa 6th
v
West Ham 17th
Wigan 15th

To keep 5th, we have to up and game and prove the form guides wrong, while Villa just need to keep doing what their doing. Take emotion out the equation and view it logically and I'd say even though we're 3 points above with 2 games to go, Villa just have that edge and I'd say are slight favourites to take it.

 

[Dylan]

Whos saying that? You?

Hell no. I think we will qualify.

and another thing, i'm still not buying this in form bullshit for newcastle, their wins have been against all relegation battlers except tottenham, and would you call pretty recent draws against brum and west ham in form? their good form is [Poor language removed] form for us, no reason to respect them.

That is my point exactly! Newcastle aren't a good side, and they still have 'King Kev' in charge! No tactics other than 'These are a good attacking side, let's match them!' We will do the barcodes, and we will do them comfortably.

 

[Neiler]

I know this may seem pessimistic, but I'm basing it on logic and form. I think we'll probably loose to Arsenal and pick up a point off Newcastle. And I can see Villa picking up 4 points from their remaining fixtures.

So as gloomy as it may seem, my prediction for our finishing position is this:

5. Villa 63 points
6. Everton 63 points

But with Villa finishing above us on goal difference. Lets be honest you just know its our damned luck that the year we finally finish with a respectable goal difference is the year it wont be good enough to gaurantee europe!

Hopefully in two games I can look back and be proved wrong.

Villa are only ahead of us by a goal!

 

[Sim]

Villa are only ahead of us by a goal!

Yes but if we loose and draw as in my prediction, then our goal difference can only go down, while if they win and draw their can only go up. If it comes to goal difference, we wont get it.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I think we are already past the goal difference now. It up to us to get the results now nothing less or a early summer call will be our only hope.