Don't take this the wrong way because I'm enjoying the debate but sometimes in life its fun to make estimations based on gut feelings on very little information. People who are highly paid in whatever business e.g. music executive, football scout, CEO, get rewarded for predicting how things are going to turn out based on very little information. Anyone can point to something that is successful based on performance and say it is successful but it's too late by then. It takes much more skill and bravery to look at something which is unproven and say it is going to be a success. It's easy to say Messi is the best player in the world now based on his record, any fool can do that. I great scout though could look at him at 15 or 16 and say he has all the tools to be the best player in the world.