Joel Robles

[LABlue2]

Yes, thats exactly what I am saying. Before they took the operation in house they were in 4th place every season. Currently they are... oh, 4th!

It may give a club a very very slight advantage in terms of cold hard facts like a tall defender etc but unless there is some statistic to account for mentality etc then its all just nonsense.

People overthink football way too much.

 

[Papa Shango]

You said they are worthless I've just given you a tangible value based on an example of an actual club you clearly dont understand statistics or the depth of the data analysis within the modern game

I know what I said and I stand by it.

Unless these statistics take into account things like how much sleep a player got the night before, if he/she has troubles at home, weather, strength of opponent and then all those things are also applied to the opponent then they really are worthless as there are too many variables.

Its one of footballs modern cons.

 

[Papa Shango]

Things a million times more complicated than football can be made clearer through the proper application of detailed statistics. This is amazingly naive. Football isn't magic, it exists in the real world and can be studied as such

Of course it can be studied, you can study anything.

I am saying the complete opposite of it being magic, it's basic. Statistics only really work with cold hard facts something which football (and sport in general) doesn't really have.

Is there a statistic for a footballers mentality? Because for me that's the single most important attribute in the game. Without out that everything else means nothing.

 

[CahillsCornerFlag]

Definitely breaking news nobody is interested in.

Like that he just walks round like a normal bloke and gets a trim at a local barber, goes to normal restaurants etc. Refreshing.

Also he's clearly good enough to be #1 now, if he keeps it up till the end of the year I'd still probably buy a keeper but as competition, maybe to replace Stek.

 

[hetion]

Of course it can be studied, you can study anything.

I am saying the complete opposite of it being magic, it's basic. Statistics only really work with cold hard facts something which football (and sport in general) doesn't really have.

Is there a statistic for a footballers mentality? Because for me that's the single most important attribute in the game. Without out that everything else means nothing.

Yes, that can definitely be approximated with enough data points. Taking a defensive midfielders average number of attempted tackles in the last 10 minutes when defending a one-goal lead, and the divergence between that number and his usual average, and then again the divergence between that number and the average across the league, would be one example off the top of my head. Take about a hundred of these (you can literally never have too many) and you can start to build a fairly good picture. Use that in conjunction with traditional scouting and research and it's very useful.

Im not a statistician by the way so that may be a terrible example but that's the general gist

Essentially the point is that if you take enough data points you can get insight into just about anything (the key being good data, and having loads of it).

 

[Lanolin]

Things a million times more complicated than football can be made clearer through the proper application of detailed statistics. This is amazingly naive. Football isn't magic, it exists in the real world and can be studied as such

The problem with statistics in football is that it's very difficult to actually gain anything meaningful from them due to the nature of the game.

Keeping this about Joel, you could look at the stats somebody posted above and say that he must be better at claiming crosses than all the other keepers, but only when you actually watch the games and take into account the opposition etc can you see whether that's accurate. A keeper can have a very high save percentage, but if that's because the defence in front of them is rock solid and all the shots are pot shots from outside the box and poor angles then it tells you nothing. Similarly a keeper can rack up a load of 'unnecessary' saves which actually put their team under pressure - getting their angles wrong and tipping shots over or wide when they were never going in to start with for example, or pushing shots back into the danger area rather than just catching them. For that reason I don't think stats are a good way of comparing players, as it's effectively apples and oranges.

As for Joel, he's been very good in the main since he came in to the side about a year ago and he should never have been replaced by Stekelenburg in my opinion. What he needs to do now though is become a really consistent keeper, putting together a long run of good games and cementing himself as our undisputed number 1. Once he's done that, he can try to push on to the mythical 'next level' where he's recognised as being truly top class. If he does that, we'll all be happy for him to be first choice for as long as possible.

 

[Papa Shango]

Yes, that can definitely be approximated with enough data points. Taking a defensive midfielders average number of attempted tackles in the last 10 minutes when defending a one-goal lead, and the divergence between that number and his usual average, and then again the divergence between that number and the average across the league, would be one example off the top of my head. Take about a hundred of these (you can literally never have too many) and you can start to build a fairly good picture. Use that in conjunction with traditional scouting and research and it's very useful.

Im not a statistician by the way so that may be a terrible example but that's the general gist

Essentially the point is that if you take enough data points you can get insight into just about anything (the key being good data, and having loads of it).

But this doesnt take into account the quality of opposition, level of fitness of not just the player in question but the other 21 around him. If a team sits back to defend a one goal lead or pushes on for another etc etc.

It can show a trend or two but its still not an accurate representation of what can happen in such a variable environment.

 

[Mikey_Fitzgerald]

As much as I respect the Robles Fan Club for sticking by their man, I must say that the De Gea comparisons are a massive stretch by any metric you'd want to use

De Gea is one of the greatest goalkeepers of this current generation. Robles, though solid enough, will never come close to that sort of accolade

Is he a safe pair of hands? Most certainly

Is he ever going to be on De Gea's level? No chance

Comparing the two does Robles a disservice and holds him up to an unrealistic standard

This is becoming another Deulofeu situation, where well meaning fans are overhyping a players potential after a decent run. You are lumping unfair expectations on the lads shoulders and, if this ends the same way as the Del saga, you'll probably all turn on him in the end anyway

As wonderful as it is to see a seemingly lovely lad like Robles having a dedicated fan base, I think it's time to put the fandom to one side and start giving a more honest appraisal of his skill set

Well done to him for his decent run though, hopefully it continues

 

[Logans run]

Sorry, can't agree. How often do you see him command his area and take crosses? He's what, six feet 4/5? He stays on his line far too often when the crosses come in. What he is good at is one v one's. Then, he's off his line like lightening

We need to sign Hart, Schmichel or Heaton next season. Neither Robles or Stek are number one keepers.

I fail to see why you can say Joel does not command his area he absolutely does and his catching and ball distribution have been first class.
You evidently have not noticed that, yet you say Hart, Scmicael and Heaton can when in fact, they cannot.
Just pretend he cost 20m and played for Real Madrid and I am sure your vision will improve.

 

[Logans run]

Yes, that can definitely be approximated with enough data points. Taking a defensive midfielders average number of attempted tackles in the last 10 minutes when defending a one-goal lead, and the divergence between that number and his usual average, and then again the divergence between that number and the average across the league, would be one example off the top of my head. Take about a hundred of these (you can literally never have too many) and you can start to build a fairly good picture. Use that in conjunction with traditional scouting and research and it's very useful.

Im not a statistician by the way so that may be a terrible example but that's the general gist

Essentially the point is that if you take enough data points you can get insight into just about anything (the key being good data, and having loads of it).

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

[Mikey_Fitzgerald]

I fail to see why you can say Joel does not command his area he absolutely does and his catching and ball distribution have been first class.

His catching has been alright, certainly not awful in any way

Yes, occasionally now and then he may punch instead of catching when a catch would be the best option, but in general he's good at commanding his box, though I feel you are perhaps lavishing him with more praise than he deserves by calling it "first class". I'd class it as good-very good depending on a match to match basis, but nothing more. Still though I'd disagree with anyone saying that he isn't any good in this area, because I believe that to be patently untrue

His distribution when throwing is fine. His kicking though is most definitely not "first class". It barely qualifies as "steerage"

There's certainly aspects of his game that he does very well, for instance his shot stopping and 1v1's goalkeeping is impressive, but I fear that you are failing to give some of his skills a realistic appraisal

 

[hetion]

The problem with statistics in football is that it's very difficult to actually gain anything meaningful from them due to the nature of the game.

Keeping this about Joel, you could look at the stats somebody posted above and say that he must be better at claiming crosses than all the other keepers, but only when you actually watch the games and take into account the opposition etc can you see whether that's accurate. A keeper can have a very high save percentage, but if that's because the defence in front of them is rock solid and all the shots are pot shots from outside the box and poor angles then it tells you nothing. Similarly a keeper can rack up a load of 'unnecessary' saves which actually put their team under pressure - getting their angles wrong and tipping shots over or wide when they were never going in to start with for example, or pushing shots back into the danger area rather than just catching them. For that reason I don't think stats are a good way of comparing players, as it's effectively apples and oranges.

As for Joel, he's been very good in the main since he came in to the side about a year ago and he should never have been replaced by Stekelenburg in my opinion. What he needs to do now though is become a really consistent keeper, putting together a long run of good games and cementing himself as our undisputed number 1. Once he's done that, he can try to push on to the mythical 'next level' where he's recognised as being truly top class. If he does that, we'll all be happy for him to be first choice for as long as possible.

But this doesnt take into account the quality of opposition, level of fitness of not just the player in question but the other 21 around him. If a team sits back to defend a one goal lead or pushes on for another etc etc.

It can show a trend or two but its still not an accurate representation of what can happen in such a variable environment.

Re: both - this is exactly why you need huge amounts of data and different data points. The one example I gave would be an incredibly poor use of statistics by itself (and so would just about any statistics that we, as fans, have access to). Combine it with huge amounts of other stats though and trends emerge - even using specific examples you guys gave, like saves that lead to another goalscoring opportunity, saves on shots going wide, the style of play of the team as a whole, the difference in expected goals between the two teams, yada yada. You're absolutely right in saying that one (or even ten) stats won't tell you much and can even be very misleading (particularly in the case of keepers!). That's why multimillion pound companies have huge teams delving incredibly deep.

Basically - anything we as fans see as 'footie stats' is a world away from anything that really gets used for analysis.

 

[Papa Shango]

Re: both - this is exactly why you need huge amounts of data and different data points. The one example I gave would be an incredibly poor use of statistics by itself (and so would just about any statistics that we, as fans, have access to). Combine it with huge amounts of other stats though and trends emerge - even using specific examples you guys gave, like saves that lead to another goalscoring opportunity, saves on shots going wide, the style of play of the team as a whole, the difference in expected goals between the two teams, yada yada. You're absolutely right in saying that one (or even ten) stats won't tell you much and can even be very misleading (particularly in the case of keepers!). That's why multimillion pound companies have huge teams delving incredibly deep.

Basically - anything we as fans see as 'footie stats' is a world away from anything that really gets used for analysis.

Yeah but is there any proof that they actually work?

Instead of weighing up a bunch of stats and paying loads for it I would prefer to just look at a player to see if they are any good!

 

[hetion]

Yeah but is there any proof that they actually work?

Instead of weighing up a bunch of stats and paying loads for it I would prefer to just look at a player to see if they are any good!

No idea obviously, but I'd hedge a bet that the answer is yes considering there isn't a top team in the world that doesn't use them.

We got Gueye based on stats, and while people are coming out of the woodwork now saying they always rated him, he was almost universally scoffed at beforehand.

 

[TheCount]

As much as I respect the Robles Fan Club for sticking by their man, I must say that the De Gea comparisons are a massive stretch by any metric you'd want to use

De Gea is one of the greatest goalkeepers of this current generation. Robles, though solid enough, will never come close to that sort of accolade

Is he a safe pair of hands? Most certainly

Is he ever going to be on De Gea's level? No chance

Comparing the two does Robles a disservice and holds him up to an unrealistic standard

This is becoming another Deulofeu situation, where well meaning fans are overhyping a players potential after a decent run. You are lumping unfair expectations on the lads shoulders and, if this ends the same way as the Del saga, you'll probably all turn on him in the end anyway

As wonderful as it is to see a seemingly lovely lad like Robles having a dedicated fan base, I think it's time to put the fandom to one side and start giving a more honest appraisal of his skill set

Well done to him for his decent run though, hopefully it continues

Agree that there is a little bit of overhype here. Out of interest, how long would his good run need to continue for you to consider him top class?

For me, he'd need to keep doing what he's doing between the sticks and improve his distribution. I don't think it's even ability with his distribution, more decision making.