Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

[catcherintherye]

Not saying there was never a poll that had Sanders doing better, but the vast, vast majority had Biden as the leader.

I think we seem to be talking about different things. It's not really about a leader poll.

Polling companies did polls of prospective runners against Trump. Sanders was polling well against Trump (generally 2-3 ahead). Biden was a bit behind that. Since becoming the candidate Biden is now well in front. We obviously don't know if this would have replicated with Sanders, if it would have been greater or leser with Sanders. Given the scale of the Corona crisis it's likely a similar pattern would have been followed. However there is some speculation there.

At the time of the decision though, and I'm being favourable here, there was no discernible or obvious advantage to havign Biden over Sanders. It was purely an ideological decision.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

I think we seem to be talking about different things. It's not really about a leader poll.

Polling companies did polls of prospective runners against Trump. Sanders was polling well against Trump (generally 2-3 ahead). Biden was a bit behind that. Since becoming the candidate Biden is now well in front. We obviously don't know if this would have replicated with Sanders, if it would have been greater or leser with Sanders. Given the scale of the Corona crisis it's likely a similar pattern would have been followed. However there is some speculation there.

At the time of the decision though, and I'm being favourable here, there was no discernible or obvious advantage to havign Biden over Sanders. It was purely an ideological decision.

We're talking about the same thing. We're just disagreeing on what those polls have shown.

 

[catcherintherye]

Could you outline what you mean by "enormous lengths", with reference to the 2020 primaries? Biden got a bunch of endorsements before South Carolina as people dropped out, but I just don't see that as some nefarious act. When the likes of Buttigieg dropped out, Biden is simply the natural place for those voters to go.

The fact is that currently, Bernie just isn't where the majority of the Democratic base (much less the country) is currently. He couldn't win a Primary (after failing to turn out meaningfully higher numbers of young voters than previously - which would arguably have been his only path to a GE victory vs Trump) where the voter base is SIGNIFICANTLY further left than the nationwide voter base.

On the first point, I think there is a lot of evidence of underhand tactics being practiced.

On the 2nd issue, I am not sure politics works as simply as a simple right/left debate. Politics is multifaceted. To a degree the democratic party is as well. Organisations rarely lose for being too left or right wing.


The argument for Sanders is he could have reached elemetns of the soft Trump vote in key "blue collar states" with an economic offer that went beyond the kore nationalistic/racist language of Trump. We don't know what could have happened, but it's not a bizarre theory, and given how little has been delivered by Trump it's very plausible.

He is to the left of the country, as was FDR in 1932, and he won 3 big victories. Obama was probably to the left of the country on race, in a country that had just voted for Bush, yet he won. Politics is quite complex.

 

[catcherintherye]

We're talking about the same thing. We're just disagreeing on what those polls have shown.

OK fair enough. So prior to the leader being picked, it's your understanding Biden was polling better than Sanders against Trump?

 

[Ruairi77]

Biden is more competent. The Americans and thier right wing Overton window would have you thinking he is centrist. But let’s face it he is right wing. More competently right ring. A neo liberal corporatist. As you say in a more articulate way; With the people they believe it’s out of the fire and to the comparative better frying pan. But you are getting cooked either way. Capitalism has been slow cooking it’s people for so long. Sometimes they flip them over to do the other side.

You're looking at this in global terms.
For the sake of the election, we have to look at this in local terms.
In local terms, Biden is center left. His policies this cycle are probably the most left wing in two or three generations.
So here in America, we have a far right candidate against a center left candidate.
The priority is to remove the far right candidate and, some how, start fixing the country.
The way to do that is with a centerist candidate as opposed to a progressive candidate (and I say that as a progressive, our time will come)
There's no way the country as a whole would elect a black woman but I think there's a very strong chance Biden doesn't finish his term. And Harris will become POTUS, and yea, she's a moderate too, but they'll be looking to the future of the party/country and more and more people like the members of the squad will become influential politicians (a big thanks to Sanders for that!)
Biden is a bit of an old hokey horse of Troy.

 

[tsubaki]

Sanders vs Trump would have half of the establishment Dems refusing to back Bernie, and at least a few publicly back Trump.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

OK fair enough. So prior to the leader being picked, it's your understanding Biden was polling better than Sanders against Trump?

Yes. The national polls were generally close (within a point or two, and again, I'm not saying there were NO national polls that had Sanders ahead), but the swing state polls (which are really the only things that matter) showed Biden in a significantly better position than Sanders.

General favourability numbers were also close, but Bernie's unfavourables were significantly higher than Biden's too (understandably so, I guess)

 

[Ruairi77]

Sanders vs Trump would have half of the establishment Dems refusing to back Bernie, and at least a few publicly back Trump.

Some may not have backed Bernie but not a hope in hell they'd come out for Trump, not even Manchin.
Edit, "almost half"????
I'm not sure you're comprehending how much contempt there is for Trump.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Some may not have backed Bernie but not a hope in hell they'd come out for Trump, not even Manchin.

Indeed. Unless they fancied torpedoing their own political careers.

 

[catcherintherye]

Sanders vs Trump would have half of the establishment Dems refusing to back Bernie, and at least a few publicly back Trump.

Most would have privately backed Trump.

 

[catcherintherye]

Indeed. Unless they fancied torpedoing their own political careers.

Did not see the reams of Labour MP's who came out to back the Tories (having left the party) at the last election?

 

[Ruairi77]

Indeed. Unless they fancied torpedoing their own political careers.

I don't think there's one elected democrat at any level, local, or National who would endorse Trump. Which is kinda incredible.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Did not see the reams of Labour MP's who came out to back the Tories (having left the party) at the last election?

I don't remember mentioning Labour

 

[Ruairi77]

Most would have privately backed Trump.

no, they wouldn't.
what's going on here?

 

[tsubaki]

Some may not have backed Bernie but not a hope in hell they'd come out for Trump, not even Manchin.
Edit, "almost half"????
I'm not sure you're comprehending how much contempt there is for Trump.

We have just gone through exactly that thing here where centrists, former Labour MPs told people to vote Johnson. This was after years of rowing at him.

If Bernie had beaten Biden and the rest, you’d absolutely have seen the same sort of people do the same sort of attacks, the claims of political homelessness and so on.