Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

[catcherintherye]

Yes. The national polls were generally close (within a point or two, and again, I'm not saying there were NO national polls that had Sanders ahead), but the swing state polls (which are really the only things that matter) showed Biden in a significantly better position than Sanders.

General favourability numbers were also close, but Bernie's unfavourables were significantly higher than Biden's too (understandably so, I guess)

Fair enough, I didn't drill down to regional polls. No national polls, in fairness it looks pretty close. Bidens peak lead appears to be 10, Sanders 9. At certain moment each of them had a slightly bigger lead over Trump, and I probably looked at a time when Sanders was ahead,

Either way, not allowing Sanders to run, was an ideological not a practical decision, which is sort of the core point here.

 

[Ruairi77]

Did not see the reams of Labour MP's who came out to back the Tories (having left the party) at the last election?

After the 90's there's only a tiny sliver of light between Labour and Conservative.
There's a gaping chasm between the Dems and the GOP. (and it's only widening)

 

[catcherintherye]

no, they wouldn't.
what's going on here?

Of course they would. I'm not saying publicly, but segregation supporting moderate Democrats like Biden would have had more problems with Sanders than Trump. Whether they publicly said as much is quite another question.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

We have just gone through exactly that thing here where centrists, former Labour MPs told people to vote Johnson. This was after years of rowing at him.

If Bernie had beaten Biden and the rest, you’d absolutely have seen the same sort of people do the same sort of attacks, the claims of political homelessness and so on.

Can people stop conflating the US and UK on this issue please?

As awful as Johnson is (and god knows, he truly is) he isn't - or at least certainly WASN'T at the time of the election - as historically unpopular and hated as Trump is. You can certainly argue that he SHOULD be, but he isn't/wasn't.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Of course they would. I'm not saying publicly, but segregation supporting moderate Democrats like Biden would have had more problems with Sanders than Trump. Whether they publicly said as much is quite another question.

Oh mate, I generally really enjoy reading your posts, but you're honestly going off the rails now.

 

[Ruairi77]

We have just gone through exactly that thing here where centrists, former Labour MPs told people to vote Johnson. This was after years of rowing at him.

If Bernie had beaten Biden and the rest, you’d absolutely have seen the same sort of people do the same sort of attacks, the claims of political homelessness and so on.

no, you wouldnt, there's a world of difference between the systems, the parties and the politicians.
You might get a tiny percentage privately hoping for trump over sanders but not one publicly, I'm fairly sure of that.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Fair enough, I didn't drill down to regional polls. No national polls, in fairness it looks pretty close. Bidens peak lead appears to be 10, Sanders 9. At certain moment each of them had a slightly bigger lead over Trump, and I probably looked at a time when Sanders was ahead,

Either way, not allowing Sanders to run, was an ideological not a practical decision, which is sort of the core point here.

But nothing you've said indicates that to be the case, apart from an assertion that it's fact.

Swing state polling had Biden *significantly* further ahead of Trump than Sanders was, and in the US, swing states are all that matters. You can run up the score in Cali all you want, but if you can't win the battleground states, it gets you precisely nowhere.

 

[catcherintherye]

Oh mate, I generally really enjoy reading your posts, but you're honestly going off the rails now.

I think you've got illusions in these people mate.

We've seen it with Labour here. Go and watch the Stephen Kinnock documentary, where Corbyn has a shock election performance, and he just goes into shock. It looks like he's lost a loved on. Just sits in silence. We are told that Labour HQ staff had a celebration party organised for when the Tories won, and had to cancel it. There were whatsapp groups about and tactical meetings about how they could divert funds away from marginal seats etc.

It's the same drill in America. They would not have tolerated Bernie Sanders and it's why twice, they have prevented him running, even costing them the 2016 election in the process. They'd make the same calls again given the choice.

I've canvassed with these people. I've heard the glee they spoke about the idea Corbyn/Labour would get hammered in 2017 when they are in private. You'd be really shocked and disappointed.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

@tsubaki @catcherintherye
Question for you both, and I'd really love just a 'yes' or 'no' answer just on this one question.

Was it a bad strategic decision for Bernie (especially after what he'd learned in 2016) not to join the Democratic Party before running again in 2020?

 

[Ruairi77]

but segregation supporting moderate Democrats like Biden would have had more problems with Sanders than Trump.

wow,
Biden was the VP to a black president for 8 years.
Biden would vote for and endorse Sanders in a split second over Trump.
I'm kinda stunned that the message you seem to be getting is so far off base.

 

[catcherintherye]

But nothing you've said indicates that to be the case, apart from an assertion that it's fact.

Swing state polling had Biden *significantly* further ahead of Trump than Sanders was, and in the US, swing states are all that matters. You can run up the score in Cali all you want, but if you can't win the battleground states, it gets you precisely nowhere.

Well I've given you headline voting figures. There is also a likelihood in key marginals, Michigan, Iowa etc Sanders polls strongly. I mean I haven't seen said polls, but on the ground the offer of a radical alternative from Sanders could have played very well.

They didn't want a socialist running. They chose to run with an awful candidate in 2016 who could very easily have achieved the impossible of having Trump win, over allowing a socialist to run. Thats the reality.

 

[catcherintherye]

@tsubaki @catcherintherye
Question for you both, and I'd really love just a 'yes' or 'no' answer just on this one question.

Was it a bad strategic decision for Bernie (especially after what he'd learned in 2016) not to join the Democratic Party before running again in 2020?

Thats a very hard question to answer in a yes or no isn't it? It depends what his strategic goals were, surely?

 

[Ruairi77]

I think you've got illusions in these people mate.

We've seen it with Labour here. Go and watch the Stephen Kinnock documentary, where Corbyn has a shock election performance, and he just goes into shock. It looks like he's lost a loved on. Just sits in silence. We are told that Labour HQ staff had a celebration party organised for when the Tories won, and had to cancel it. There were whatsapp groups about and tactical meetings about how they could divert funds away from marginal seats etc.

It's the same drill in America. They would not have tolerated Bernie Sanders and it's why twice, they have prevented him running, even costing them the 2016 election in the process. They'd make the same calls again given the choice.

I've canvassed with these people. I've heard the glee they spoke about the idea Corbyn/Labour would get hammered in 2017 when they are in private. You'd be really shocked and disappointed.

what's happening here is nothing like the Labour situation... nothing.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Well I've given you headline voting figures. There is also a likelihood in key marginals, Michigan, Iowa etc Sanders polls strongly. I mean I haven't seen said polls, but on the ground the offer of a radical alternative from Sanders could have played very well.

Those states are moderate almost to a fault, yet you think Sanders' performance in them would have somehow outstripped his national polling?

 

[Ruairi77]

Thats a very hard question to answer in a yes or no isn't it? It depends what his strategic goals were, surely?

to become president and if he couldn't do that, drive the party left.