Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

[Martin Alvito]

If its Biden v Trump as seems likely it really is the worst of America.

How is it that Harris has become so unpopular from essentially doing nothing? As all VPs do?

Rode Biden's coattails down, which is usually how that works. She also has an ugly history of staff turnover that doesn't say good things about who she really is.

Similar revelations about Klobuchar hurt her in the 2020 primary.

 

[carolinablue232]

I understand Democrats not supporting Biden’s position on Israel, but surely most of their voters are informed enough to realize that large amounts of them staying home or voting third party will almost certainly hand the election to Trump. It’s not like a Republican president is going to have anything other than any even more pro-Israel stance.

Young voters aren’t exactly the most rational bunch. They lead with emotion.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Young voters aren’t exactly the most rational bunch. They lead with emotion.

Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war

Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the margin of error.

www.nbcnews.com

A number of public polls show young voters turning on Biden

Sunday's national NBC News poll is the latest in a string of surveys showing much closer results among young voters than Democrats have recently enjoyed.

www.nbcnews.com

The age range from 18-34 represents about 15% of the voting-age electorate. Biden won them 60-36 in 2020. His support in that age range has declined to more or less flatlining. If about half of them choose to vote in 2024 the way they (unusually) turned out in 2020, all else equal that tips enough states to hand 2024 to Trump. That holds even if we assume a best-case scenario of all the disaffected young voters who flipped staying home rather than turning out for Trump, which would result in more 'normal' turnout numbers.

There's a lot of time left on the clock, and a lot to play out in court, but the Israel issue has Biden in big trouble. He simply has to find a way to keep this one from being viewed as a foreign policy Katrina, if he wants to win. I have no idea how he could extract that rabbit from this hat, but that's shaping up to be the ask.

 

[davek]

Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war

Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the margin of error.

www.nbcnews.com

A number of public polls show young voters turning on Biden

Sunday's national NBC News poll is the latest in a string of surveys showing much closer results among young voters than Democrats have recently enjoyed.

www.nbcnews.com

The age range from 18-34 represents about 15% of the voting-age electorate. Biden won them 60-36 in 2020. His support in that age range has declined to more or less flatlining. If about half of them choose to vote in 2024 the way they (unusually) turned out in 2020, all else equal that tips enough states to hand 2024 to Trump. That holds even if we assume a best-case scenario of all the disaffected young voters who flipped staying home rather than turning out for Trump, which would result in more 'normal' turnout numbers.

There's a lot of time left on the clock, and a lot to play out in court, but the Israel issue has Biden in big trouble. He simply has to find a way to keep this one from being viewed as a foreign policy Katrina, if he wants to win. I have no idea how he could extract that rabbit from this hat, but that's shaping up to be the ask.

Its a pity that fruit loop RFK jnr is the Independent and not someone worthy of a protest vote.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Its a pity that fruit loop RFK jnr is the Independent and not someone worthy of a protest vote.

Jon Stewart now has nothing better to do and an ax to grind with both tech and China. He has experience using the media to pass bipartisan legislation.

He also is on record as essentially saying the only way to win the game of modern American electoral politics is not to play.

I remember reading an editorial in the New York Times during a presidential campaign (I think it was 2000) where, in response to people lambasting the quality of the primary candidate fields, the author described the grueling process of public scrutiny and retail campaigning during a modern presidential primary in detail. It was written by a reporter formerly assigned to the presidential primary beat. They concluded by intimating that only a narcissist would put up with the consequences for self and family. Another NYT editorial I was able to locate from 2008 stated their research indicated there are in fact two types: someone truly selfless willing to sacrifice even their own family for what they perceive to be the good of all, and a narcissist.

Seeing how the one type is a rare bird indeed, it's small wonder we get a more or less endless succession of the other type these days. RFK Jr. does have the fact that he profited from litigation in the collective public interest in his favor. His political positions are also a right mess.

 

[tsubaki]

Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war

Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the margin of error.

www.nbcnews.com

A number of public polls show young voters turning on Biden

Sunday's national NBC News poll is the latest in a string of surveys showing much closer results among young voters than Democrats have recently enjoyed.

www.nbcnews.com

The age range from 18-34 represents about 15% of the voting-age electorate. Biden won them 60-36 in 2020. His support in that age range has declined to more or less flatlining. If about half of them choose to vote in 2024 the way they (unusually) turned out in 2020, all else equal that tips enough states to hand 2024 to Trump. That holds even if we assume a best-case scenario of all the disaffected young voters who flipped staying home rather than turning out for Trump, which would result in more 'normal' turnout numbers.

There's a lot of time left on the clock, and a lot to play out in court, but the Israel issue has Biden in big trouble. He simply has to find a way to keep this one from being viewed as a foreign policy Katrina, if he wants to win. I have no idea how he could extract that rabbit from this hat, but that's shaping up to be the ask.

I can't see him standing now - being called "Genocide Joe" is bad enough, but at least it allows him to project some kind of strong image. When Netanyahu refuses to stand down and pays no price for it (whilst turning it into a domestic US political issue that benefits Republicans) he'll have lost his own base and the people he sacrificed so much to support.

 

[davek]

Jon Stewart now has nothing better to do and an ax to grind with both tech and China. He has experience using the media to pass bipartisan legislation.

He also is on record as essentially saying the only way to win the game of modern American electoral politics is not to play.

I remember reading an editorial in the New York Times during a presidential campaign (I think it was 2000) where, in response to people lambasting the quality of the primary candidate fields, the author described the grueling process of public scrutiny and retail campaigning during a modern presidential primary in detail. It was written by a reporter formerly assigned to the presidential primary beat. They concluded by intimating that only a narcissist would put up with the consequences for self and family. Another NYT editorial I was able to locate from 2008 stated their research indicated there are in fact two types: someone truly selfless willing to sacrifice even their own family for what they perceive to be the good of all, and a narcissist.

Seeing how the one type is a rare bird indeed, it's small wonder we get a more or less endless succession of the other type these days. RFK Jr. does have the fact that he profited from litigation in the collective public interest in his favor. His political positions are also a right mess.

He is a Kennedy like. So I suppose their culture of "public service" is ingrained and they are socialised into it via that family legacy. I don't see narcissism as a factor with RFK jnr. He's just badly deluded.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I can't see him standing now - being called "Genocide Joe" is bad enough, but at least it allows him to project some kind of strong image. When Netanyahu refuses to stand down and pays no price for it (whilst turning it into a domestic US political issue that benefits Republicans) he'll have lost his own base and the people he sacrificed so much to support.

Escaping the present box would be quite the Houdini act. Biden is better known for his gaffes. Bill Clinton might have been able to turn this political urine into wine, most likely with the aid of James Carville, but never Biden. If Biden extracts himself from the box, it will be on policy, not spin.

Who do the Democrats run, though? It almost has to be a governor, but most of them are cozied right up to Israel. Even relative fence-sitters like Beshear and Whitmer have taken an Israel trip. What can the Democrats do, run a national no-mark like Janet Mills, who is 75 and interned for an ACLU attorney? That's like the inverse function of running Sarah Palin at the top of a ticket. She's intelligent, she's well left on center (except on drug policy) and she's old.

Who else can create separation from Biden, at this juncture? Sanders is 82. He appeals to independents (after all, he is one), and I bet he beats Biden this time if he stands, but can he beat Trump? AOC turns off Republican-leaning independents like a light switch. She might win with RFK Jr. in the game, but always loses with him out of it. Schiff has the money and the profile to play, and a moderate voting record as Democrats go. He sets up well to turn a fight against Trump into a referendum on the rule of law, but that's a win-or-bust gamble for him. Does he pull the trigger, or stay the course on his Senate run against less well-funded opposition?

Per OpenSecrets.org, about the only sitting Democratic senator besides Sanders whose hands are relatively clean of pro-Israel money is Alex Padilla. He's well right of his California predecessors (though still somewhat left of center), but I don't know if he's a great campaigner. After a moderately difficult statewide race to gain the Secretary of State job in 2014, all he has done is beat serial electoral punching bag Mark Meuser three times. Most of the senators with a national profile due to tough electoral fights are up to their eyeballs in pro-Israel money, because they weren't exactly in a position to say 'no' to money from out-of-state.

The whole fiasco exposes the core problem with the modern Democratic Party, which is that it's a coalition of grievance interest groups vulnerable to fractures. They need a Bernie-lite right now, and a message with broad appeal, but Barack Hussein Obama is term limited.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Jon Stewart now has nothing better to do and an ax to grind with both tech and China. He has experience using the media to pass bipartisan legislation.

He also is on record as essentially saying the only way to win the game of modern American electoral politics is not to play.

I remember reading an editorial in the New York Times during a presidential campaign (I think it was 2000) where, in response to people lambasting the quality of the primary candidate fields, the author described the grueling process of public scrutiny and retail campaigning during a modern presidential primary in detail. It was written by a reporter formerly assigned to the presidential primary beat. They concluded by intimating that only a narcissist would put up with the consequences for self and family. Another NYT editorial I was able to locate from 2008 stated their research indicated there are in fact two types: someone truly selfless willing to sacrifice even their own family for what they perceive to be the good of all, and a narcissist.

Seeing how the one type is a rare bird indeed, it's small wonder we get a more or less endless succession of the other type these days. RFK Jr. does have the fact that he profited from litigation in the collective public interest in his favor. His political positions are also a right mess.

Well put

I have long thought this

 

[Ruairi77]

Escaping the present box would be quite the Houdini act. Biden is better known for his gaffes. Bill Clinton might have been able to turn this political urine into wine, most likely with the aid of James Carville, but never Biden. If Biden extracts himself from the box, it will be on policy, not spin.

Who do the Democrats run, though? It almost has to be a governor, but most of them are cozied right up to Israel. Even relative fence-sitters like Beshear and Whitmer have taken an Israel trip. What can the Democrats do, run a national no-mark like Janet Mills, who is 75 and interned for an ACLU attorney? That's like the inverse function of running Sarah Palin at the top of a ticket. She's intelligent, she's well left on center (except on drug policy) and she's old.

Who else can create separation from Biden, at this juncture? Sanders is 82. He appeals to independents (after all, he is one), and I bet he beats Biden this time if he stands, but can he beat Trump? AOC turns off Republican-leaning independents like a light switch. She might win with RFK Jr. in the game, but always loses with him out of it. Schiff has the money and the profile to play, and a moderate voting record as Democrats go. He sets up well to turn a fight against Trump into a referendum on the rule of law, but that's a win-or-bust gamble for him. Does he pull the trigger, or stay the course on his Senate run against less well-funded opposition?

Per OpenSecrets.org, about the only sitting Democratic senator besides Sanders whose hands are relatively clean of pro-Israel money is Alex Padilla. He's well right of his California predecessors (though still somewhat left of center), but I don't know if he's a great campaigner. After a moderately difficult statewide race to gain the Secretary of State job in 2014, all he has done is beat serial electoral punching bag Mark Meuser three times. Most of the senators with a national profile due to tough electoral fights are up to their eyeballs in pro-Israel money, because they weren't exactly in a position to say 'no' to money from out-of-state.

The whole fiasco exposes the core problem with the modern Democratic Party, which is that it's a coalition of grievance interest groups vulnerable to fractures. They need a Bernie-lite right now, and a message with broad appeal, but Barack Hussein Obama is term limited.

Jamie Raskin?
A Jewish Democrat who's called for a ceasefire.
A good orator with a history of leading.
Could unite progressives and moderates.

 

[EFCPaul]

Personally I think Harris has been really underestimated the past 4 years. VPs always get crapped on because the role itself is thankless and often goes to sycophants.

She's a former state AG with a sharp tongue and is at an optimal age (late 50s I think). I really believe if the Dems ran her against Trump on a law and order platform, a strategy which ironically the Republicans have used plenty in the past, she'd definitely beat him.

Whether she's actually be good at the job itself is another matter.

 

[wm02]

Jamie Raskin?
A Jewish Democrat who's called for a ceasefire.
A good orator with a history of leading.
Could unite progressives and moderates.

He’s the Congressman for my district.
I just don’t see it.
It’s been a very long time (Ford excepted) since someone went straight from the House to the Presidency

 

[Martin Alvito]

Jamie Raskin?
A Jewish Democrat who's called for a ceasefire.
A good orator with a history of leading.
Could unite progressives and moderates.

Same basic problem as Pete Aguilar. As Tom Clancy once wrote, you don't get from that House to the White House.

AOC is something of a special case, and Schiff has Senate fundraising numbers and media presence. A presidential run requires big bucks, especially this late in the run-up to the primaries. Ground games and ads are both expensive.

I can't see anyone other than those two (on either side of the aisle) as having a shot at winning a primary running from the House, though almost anyone could come out of a contested convention as the nominee.

 

[Ruairi77]

He’s the Congressman for my district.
I just don’t see it.
It’s been a very long time (Ford excepted) since someone went straight from the House to the Presidency

yea but not that long since someone went from reality TV to the presidency. Suddenly the house doesnt seem that far.

 

[carolinablue232]

Personally I think Harris has been really underestimated the past 4 years. VPs always get crapped on because the role itself is thankless and often goes to sycophants.

She's a former state AG with a sharp tongue and is at an optimal age (late 50s I think). I really believe if the Dems ran her against Trump on a law and order platform, a strategy which ironically the Republicans have used plenty in the past, she'd definitely beat him.

Whether she's actually be good at the job itself is another matter.

Isn’t she one of the least popular VPs in recent times? Her reputation amongst her own party doesn’t seem great, and I’m not sure what she’d be able to point to as a big accomplishment while in the VP role that wouldn’t get countered pretty vigorously. If she ran on “law and order” as you suggest, she’d probably get beaten up on her record from both sides of the aisle as was the case when she ran in 2020. I just don’t see her having much of a chance.