Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

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National polls are, sadly, nowhere near as important as swing-state polls.

Given we still operate under the archaic Electoral College system, the polls that matter this election are polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona (possibly Iowa and Ohio).

Of course. The marginal polls seems to be slightly more Trump orientated than the national polls from what I've seen Ii mean each one is different, but around a 1% swing to Trump on average). However if Biden holds a 10+% it's very hard to not only see him winning, but also winning quite comprehensively.
 
I’ve been way behind on this thread, but wanted to add a couple thoughts about some of the stuff discussed in here.

First, as to Biden’s history on race, particularly with regards to bussing in the 70’s. While obviously his stance on it back then has turned out to put him on the wrong side of history, I think it’s somewhat unfair to somehow paint him as a racist today for a stance he took 50 years ago. If we do that, it basically denies people the opportunity to grow and learn from their mistakes. Times change quickly, and the saying that you either “die a hero or live long enough to become a villain” seems especially true for politicians whose public lives often span many decades.

Secondly, on Biden vs. Bernie. True, there were plenty of polls with relatively small sample sizes showing Bernie doing better against Trump that Biden. Here’s the thing though, Democrats don’t win national elections in America on small sample sizes, they win them by getting the absolute most possible people out to vote. Why else would Republicans be working so hard to make voting more difficult for people? Biden has a much broader, cross-demographic appeal, which is important for a party that is trying to form a coalition of people who a VERY different.

For those if you who think Biden isn’t progressive enough, it’s hard to imagine an America where Donald Trump can be President one day, and Bernie the next. They’re just too far apart ideologically. However, Biden could be an important first step in starting to move the country in a direction where Bernie’s policies one day to have wide appeal.

This was on the Daily Show last night, and gets to my feelings perfectly. Biden certainly doesn’t check all the boxes for me, but ultimately he checks the one that matters most, which is that he’s not Donald Trump.
 
I’ve been way behind on this thread, but wanted to add a couple thoughts about some of the stuff discussed in here.

First, as to Biden’s history on race, particularly with regards to bussing in the 70’s. While obviously his stance on it back then has turned out to put him on the wrong side of history, I think it’s somewhat unfair to somehow paint him as a racist today for a stance he took 50 years ago. If we do that, it basically denies people the opportunity to grow and learn from their mistakes. Times change quickly, and the saying that you either “die a hero or live long enough to become a villain” seems especially true for politicians whose public lives often span many decades.

Secondly, on Biden vs. Bernie. True, there were plenty of polls with relatively small sample sizes showing Bernie doing better against Trump that Biden. Here’s the thing though, Democrats don’t win national elections in America on small sample sizes, they win them by getting the absolute most possible people out to vote. Why else would Republicans be working so hard to make voting more difficult for people? Biden has a much broader, cross-demographic appeal, which is important for a party that is trying to form a coalition of people who a VERY different.

For those if you who think Biden isn’t progressive enough, it’s hard to imagine an America where Donald Trump can be President one day, and Bernie the next. They’re just too far apart ideologically. However, Biden could be an important first step in starting to move the country in a direction where Bernie’s policies one day to have wide appeal.

This was on the Daily Show last night, and gets to my feelings perfectly. Biden certainly doesn’t check all the boxes for me, but ultimately he checks the one that matters most, which is that he’s not Donald Trump.


The arguement, at least from me was never that Biden couldn't change though. I'm quite happy to accept he could change and probably has (although he refuses to accept he was wrong). The issue was more, that people refuse to call support for segregation, support for segregation on technicalities. I'm not saying there weren't valid reasons of sorts for doing what he did, things are rarely good v evil in the minutae- if you want to tackle racism (which is overall good) the methods you use will still impact some people negatively.

Re the 2nd point, I've been quite open on what we've seen. Bidens doing very well. We have no idea how Bernie would be doing. They were performing very similarly against Trump before. My opinion is, with the way things are playing out, Biden is a more favourable opponent as Trumps lost the plot. If Trump makes a big radical economic offer to American workers though, that will put Biden massively on the back foot.

It is very possible to see a situation whereby a country can go from Trump to Bernie. That tends to become more likely at moments of polarisation. Biden represents a re-instatement of the status quo. Almost everyone interviewed in support of him on the news last night spoke about very little other than him not being Trump. A Trump type figure will win again in America in the medium term if the left are unable to win and give people hope/begin to close the inequality gap. The Trumps of this world grow in the misery that comes from inequality and the requirement to scapegoat as an answer. Maintaining that system will only by us time for so long.
 
The arguement, at least from me was never that Biden couldn't change though. I'm quite happy to accept he could change and probably has (although he refuses to accept he was wrong). The issue was more, that people refuse to call support for segregation, support for segregation on technicalities. I'm not saying there weren't valid reasons of sorts for doing what he did, things are rarely good v evil in the minutae- if you want to tackle racism (which is overall good) the methods you use will still impact some people negatively.

Re the 2nd point, I've been quite open on what we've seen. Bidens doing very well. We have no idea how Bernie would be doing. They were performing very similarly against Trump before. My opinion is, with the way things are playing out, Biden is a more favourable opponent as Trumps lost the plot. If Trump makes a big radical economic offer to American workers though, that will put Biden massively on the back foot.

It is very possible to see a situation whereby a country can go from Trump to Bernie. That tends to become more likely at moments of polarisation. Biden represents a re-instatement of the status quo. Almost everyone interviewed in support of him on the news last night spoke about very little other than him not being Trump. A Trump type figure will win again in America in the medium term if the left are unable to win and give people hope/begin to close the inequality gap. The Trumps of this world grow in the misery that comes from inequality and the requirement to scapegoat as an answer. Maintaining that system will only by us time for so long.
This really isn't the case though. If we've learned nothing else the past 4 years, it's that whatever is left of the GOP values "the culture war", which includes racism (and a lot of it unwittingly, subconscious), over "the economy."

It's just reality we here in America live with, and see, every day
 
This really isn't the case though. If we've learned nothing else the past 4 years, it's that whatever is left of the GOP values "the culture war", which includes racism (and a lot of it unwittingly, subconscious), over "the economy."

It's just reality we here in America live with, and see, every day

Just for clarity are you saying there will be or won't be another Trump type figure emerging?
 
I’ve been way behind on this thread, but wanted to add a couple thoughts about some of the stuff discussed in here.

First, as to Biden’s history on race, particularly with regards to bussing in the 70’s. While obviously his stance on it back then has turned out to put him on the wrong side of history, I think it’s somewhat unfair to somehow paint him as a racist today for a stance he took 50 years ago. If we do that, it basically denies people the opportunity to grow and learn from their mistakes. Times change quickly, and the saying that you either “die a hero or live long enough to become a villain” seems especially true for politicians whose public lives often span many decades.

Secondly, on Biden vs. Bernie. True, there were plenty of polls with relatively small sample sizes showing Bernie doing better against Trump that Biden. Here’s the thing though, Democrats don’t win national elections in America on small sample sizes, they win them by getting the absolute most possible people out to vote. Why else would Republicans be working so hard to make voting more difficult for people? Biden has a much broader, cross-demographic appeal, which is important for a party that is trying to form a coalition of people who a VERY different.

For those if you who think Biden isn’t progressive enough, it’s hard to imagine an America where Donald Trump can be President one day, and Bernie the next. They’re just too far apart ideologically. However, Biden could be an important first step in starting to move the country in a direction where Bernie’s policies one day to have wide appeal.

This was on the Daily Show last night, and gets to my feelings perfectly. Biden certainly doesn’t check all the boxes for me, but ultimately he checks the one that matters most, which is that he’s not Donald Trump.

Very well said especially your third paragraph.
 
I"m saying that whether Biden is progressive enough to do anything about the wealth gap is irrelevant. As long as "the culture war" is ongoing, nothing else matters

Ah ok got you. Thanks for clearing it up, I was being a bit dim and was lost a bit there!

Look I agree there's no doubt that there will be a hardened core of right wing people who will be fighting a culture war. However what marks Trump out is they have firstly captured the Republican Party and then been in a position to speak to a much wider audience in an election.

Working class Americans, particularly white working class Americans will seek racial solidarity is class solidarity can't be shown to them.If the Democrats allow themselves to be framed as the party of moderation, fiscal caution, warfare etc they will continue to leak support of white working class voters, even outside of the southern states of America.

It's one of the great paradox's of Brexit here. People voted for a levelling up, greater protectionism, less inequality etc, but the parties they voted in want the opposite.
 
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