Current Affairs Israel is an apartheid state

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Toffeeslam said:
Probably did but damage/loss of life was negligible or minimal.

The Iranians main nuclear site is at Fordo and is built deep into a mountain making it almost impervious to any bombs Israel possesses.

If Israel attack more forcibly then two thing would probably happen.

1) hisbollah would be launching lots of rockets at Israel.

2) medium term Iran would develop a nuke and testing it and nothing anyone can do to stop it. Slow it down but not stop it.

3) long term a possible nuclear arms race in the region with the Saudis doing the same.

The west nightmare including Israel is that Iran gets a viable nuclear weapon as it means that military attacks against that country would be very complicated compared to now.

Right now what ever Israel did was not big enough for Iran to continue to escalate as itts not in that despotic regimes interest.

Nor in genocidal Israel’s interest either

Thankfully these two pathetic and idiotic governments won’t start WW3
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I really cannot see any chance in hell that Israel let Iran anywhere near production of a nuke. Enriching uranium etc OK, but no chance they let them get any further. Israel have proven that they can target, at will, anyone they want within the Iranian regime who is assisting their nuke programme and their intelligence (October 7th aside 👌)is just too good (all in my opinion of course)

I often think they'd be better off talking to Kim Jong Un, see if they can borrow a few!
 
Noisy noise annoys said:
I really cannot see any chance in hell that Israel let Iran anywhere near production of a nuke. Enriching uranium etc OK, but no chance they let them get any further. Israel have proven that they can target, at will, anyone they want within the Iranian regime who is assisting their nuke programme and their intelligence (October 7th aside 👌)is just too good (all in my opinion of course)

I often think they'd be better off talking to Kim Jong Un, see if they can borrow a few!
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Short of ground operations, I don't think they can stop Iran if they're determined.

The main thing that has held them back is fear of US willingness to intervene if they get too close to testing. They've been content to play their cards the way Kim Jong-Il did, and use the program as a lever to extract concessions.

It would not surprise me in the least if the next Supreme Leader moves to test. Khamenei won't live forever.
 
Martin Alvito said:
Short of ground operations, I don't think they can stop Iran if they're determined.

The main thing that has held them back is fear of US willingness to intervene if they get too close to testing. They've been content to play their cards the way Kim Jong-Il did, and use the program as a lever to extract concessions.

It would not surprise me in the least if the next Supreme Leader moves to test. Khamenei won't live forever.
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You can’t run a nuke programme without nuke scientists …
 
Noisy noise annoys said:
You can’t run a nuke programme without nuke scientists …
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This is why Iran has them in the hole in the ground.

It's more or less impossible to stop someone from fabricating the bomb itself. More promising is cutting off the supply of fissile material, but once they have it that cat is out of the bag. You can inspect all you want. In time, enough material will fall off the back of the truck.

One other question is whether or not a half dozen bombs do Iran any good. We saw the other day that they would have difficulty delivering them. If I wanted to solve the problem from Israel's perspective, I would focus on delivery systems.
 
Noisy noise annoys said:
I really cannot see any chance in hell that Israel let Iran anywhere near production of a nuke. Enriching uranium etc OK, but no chance they let them get any further. Israel have proven that they can target, at will, anyone they want within the Iranian regime who is assisting their nuke programme and their intelligence (October 7th aside 👌)is just too good (all in my opinion of course)

I often think they'd be better off talking to Kim Jong Un, see if they can borrow a few!
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I think Iran probably has some by now, and the ultimate end to these escalations (if they continue) will be a sudden test of that Iranian nuclear weapon. Lets face it the past fifteen years have basically been one long advert for getting a nuke - both in their own experience and watching those like Libya, Syria and Ukraine get screwed over for not having them.

Martin Alvito said:
This is why Iran has them in the hole in the ground.

It's more or less impossible to stop someone from fabricating the bomb itself. More promising is cutting off the supply of fissile material, but once they have it that cat is out of the bag. You can inspect all you want. In time, enough material will fall off the back of the truck.

One other question is whether or not a half dozen bombs do Iran any good. We saw the other day that they would have difficulty delivering them. If I wanted to solve the problem from Israel's perspective, I would focus on delivery systems.
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TBF that would probably just result in Iran using them in non-traditional ways. Putting one in an ISO container and setting it off when the carrying ship docked in Eliat / Ashdod / Haifa etc would be well within their capabilities, would mash up Israel considerably and it wouldn't harm Jerusalem or either of the occupied territories.
 
tsubaki said:
TBF that would probably just result in Iran using them in non-traditional ways. Putting one in an ISO container and setting it off when the carrying ship docked in Eliat / Ashdod / Haifa etc would be well within their capabilities, would mash up Israel considerably and it wouldn't harm Jerusalem or either of the occupied territories.
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True, but it's hard to use it as a deterrent threat that way. The last thing Iran wants to do is actually use one in that manner. Israel would obliterate them in reply.

They need a credible delivery mechanism to have the deterrent threat they need.
 
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