Current Affairs Iran
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Billy Dean
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I really hope the regime falls and the people of Iran get to democratically choose what comes next, without our interference
spectateur
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The west and in particular USA have interfered with Iranian for far too long. Can they be expected to stop while there is oil in the ground and islamophobia so widespread .
bluestevon
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Any country with either of the following will be guaranteed to not be allowed to choose democratically without a huge amount of interference.
1. Important strategic location.
2. Large natural resources (doubly so if energy)
Iran has both of those in spades.
If the current regime stands then there will be a continuation of external influence/interference to try to overthrow it, if it does fall then what comes next will be decided on not democratically but by outside influence effectively choosing what's acceptable.
If your country is in the middle east, has huge oil reserves then as a citizen from there I don't think you can expect to be allowed to choose what's best for you tbh (the past 60 years in the entire region pretty much proves that - and if anything it's gotten worse), the world sadly doesn't work that way
Billy Dean
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Yes I completely agree
tsubaki
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Could see them taking some sort of action to close, or threaten to close, the straits - in the short term it would further ramp up the energy crisis and put more pressure on the West (and the world by extension) to at least come to some sort of accommodation with Russia (in the absence of any other supplies).
Carrying out a genuine attack would be very risky though; I doubt it would lead to any kind of US-organized invasion of Iran but I could see more assassinations of more senior people, especially given the closeness of Saudi and Israel nowadays. What destabilizing effect would come from that (both by the effect of losing those killed and that of the others bunkering down and unable to provide leadership) is anyones guess - with all the crisis over there now it might be enough to topple the regime.
Alternatively, and speaking with my paranoia hat on, its not hard to see that both Iran and Saudi would stand to gain from some form of demonstration that bumps up tensions in the Gulf - the oil and gas price will spike again, and much more attention will be lavished on issues of concern to them without having to give anything up in return. It also potentially helps other allies and regional partners.
It is after all kind of suspicious that Tehran is kicking this off when the relations of the OPEC+ crowd have never been closer, when there has been a lot of diplomacy between these nations.... and of course the idea that the Saudis are influencing protests over women's right to walk in public without a hijab is farcical.
Spadge Vernacular
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Spadge Vernacular
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Iranians defy crackdown with fresh protests, as president dismisses US vow to ‘free Iran’
Ebrahim Raisi declares streets ‘safe and sound’ while shopkeepers strike and student demonstrations sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death reach 50th day
Spadge Vernacular
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Children among 10 feared dead in Iran crackdown, Amnesty says | CNN
Up to 10 people, including children, are feared to have been killed Friday in a crackdown on protests by Iranian security forces in the southeast of the country, human rights watchdog Amnesty International said.
Spadge Vernacular
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Haydn
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Spadge Vernacular
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Zatara
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