Current Affairs Iran

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Spadge Vernacular said:
They would still find buyers as we have seen with Russia. Worse still they world is firmly split and these autocratic states are siding and supporting one another.
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There is too much excess production to just move it around quickly (and in any case we'd be helping wean those nations who would be the alternate sources off it) and many of those autocratic states are dependent on income from energy sales - and those that don't (like China and India) benefit from a lower price, causing division.

2020 saw a 10% reduction in demand and it (briefly) put the oil price in single digits per barrel. The Saudis need it to be around $80 per barrel, and the other states (especially Russia) probably need it higher than that to power their economies. If we in the West want to combat those states, we need to stop stuffing them with money.
 
Rita_Poon said:
Energy security is the way forwards for putting this genie back in its bottle. Once energy is under control, there will be an appetite for western manufacture.
It's a long way between here and there though. And whoever builds the infrastructure that breaks this problems back probably doesn't get the pay off or the credit they ought. The masses just want it fixed and forgotten.
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@tsubaki right here.
 
tsubaki said:
There is too much excess production to just move it around quickly (and in any case we'd be helping wean those nations who would be the alternate sources off it) and many of those autocratic states are dependent on income from energy sales - and those that don't (like China and India) benefit from a lower price, causing division.

2020 saw a 10% reduction in demand and it (briefly) put the oil price in single digits per barrel. The Saudis need it to be around $80 per barrel, and the other states (especially Russia) probably need it higher than that to power their economies. If we in the West want to combat those states, we need to stop stuffing them with money.
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I'm all for it but think it would be a medium term solution leaving the short term on the edge.
 
tsubaki said:
I think JCPOA has been killed by the US now, but in essence yes - the Iranian people won't put up with the IRGC (which is widely seen as corrupt) and the rest of the worst elements of the regime unless there is a considerable crisis, so the aim should be to prevent a crisis. That doesn't mean rolling over or abandoning the region, it just means removing any irritants (such as the ongoing outrages in the occupied Palestinian territories) and not overreacting as the regime starts to flail around and attempt to kick something off.



That US analysis suffers from them being trapped in a system that they think benefits them - I agree that the obvious way of hurting Iran economically (and Russia FWIW) is to cut the oil price, and reduce their revenues. The easiest way, which is entirely legal and has a whole load of additional benefits, is to cut our consumption and share freely relevant technologies with the markets they'd try to divert the demand to.

Of course no US administration would ever do that, but just the EU doing it would have an immense impact for very little cost (in the grand scheme of things).
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I don’t believe the US has the ability to influence the internal Iranian political situation. Therefore the forces exerted must be external. Diffusing the situation in Israel/Gaza MAY play a part but I doubt it. The IRGC control the key points of government and industry within Iran, they’re not going anywhere.

If the economy did start to bounce back then it’s the IRGC who would benefit and not your average Iranian citizen. I also can’t see the the IRGC allowing the levels of civil unrest needed to overthrow their government ever take hold.

So there lies the conundrum, what do you do about Iran? It continues to be the biggest sponsor of international terrorism, it’s developing a nuclear weapons program and it has the capability to effectively cut off or seriously disrupt the flow of middle east oil.

Walking away and leaving them to it simply won’t cut it. They want to project power albeit regionally but that region provides the bulk of the global fuel that drives global economies.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
I don’t believe the US has the ability to influence the internal Iranian political situation. Therefore the forces exerted must be external. Diffusing the situation in Israel/Gaza MAY play a part but I doubt it. The IRGC control the key points of government and industry within Iran, they’re not going anywhere.

If the economy did start to bounce back then it’s the IRGC who would benefit and not your average Iranian citizen. I also can’t see the the IRGC allowing the levels of civil unrest needed to overthrow their government ever take hold.

So there lies the conundrum, what do you do about Iran? It continues to be the biggest sponsor of international terrorism, it’s developing a nuclear weapons program and it has the capability to effectively cut off or seriously disrupt the flow of middle east oil.

Walking away and leaving them to it simply won’t cut it. They want to project power albeit regionally but that region provides the bulk of the global fuel that drives global economies.
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What would you suggest?
 
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