Current Affairs Iran

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I disagree - yes, being willing to use force to protect your interests is something that states must do but they have to do it effectively, with a clear assessment of what they want to do and a realistic plan of how to achieve it.

The past thirty years have been full of incidents where something was done that proved to be utterly ineffective at best and positively dangerous at worst. We've either used too little force or its been applied in the wrong place, and the rapid evident failure has resulted in further entanglements because otherwise the leaders would look stupid. The buildup to Iraq in 2003 was full of such incidents - and eventually our own interests, the interests of our allies, the interests of the Iraqi people, common sense and ultimately international law itself were sacrificed on the altar of doing something.

Interesting article in the spectator that reinforces your points that last nights actions were to Iran and the Houthis predictable and ultimately largely ineffective.

Iran is pulling the strings here and the US really needs to wake up as to what’s happening in the region

Striking the Houthis won’t stop Iran

Iran and its broader proxy network have long sensed this American hesitancy to use force to protect its interests.

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[PhilM]

Hamas may have done exactly what Hamas wanted but Quds force provided all the support they needed.

And without their support (morally, planning and equipment), they would not be so bold to act as they have.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

And without their support (morally, planning and equipment), they would not be so bold to act as they have.

Exactly.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Iran’s Regional Armed Network | Council on Foreign Relations

Iran’s web of armed partners such as Hezbollah and the Houthis serves to strengthen its influence in the Middle East and could pose a significant threat to the United States and U.S. allies in the region, especially Israel.

www.cfr.org

 

[Martin Alvito]

I disagree - yes, being willing to use force to protect your interests is something that states must do but they have to do it effectively, with a clear assessment of what they want to do and a realistic plan of how to achieve it.

The past thirty years have been full of incidents where something was done that proved to be utterly ineffective at best and positively dangerous at worst. We've either used too little force or its been applied in the wrong place, and the rapid evident failure has resulted in further entanglements because otherwise the leaders would look stupid. The buildup to Iraq in 2003 was full of such incidents - and eventually our own interests, the interests of our allies, the interests of the Iraqi people, common sense and ultimately international law itself were sacrificed on the altar of doing something.

The use of force for purely political purposes with unrealistic expectations over outcomes is not a phenomenon limited to the last thirty years. The neocons weren't the only people in history stupid enough to think they would be welcomed with a nice democracy cakewalk or its equivalent by a conquered populace.

I don't know what to tell you about the problem of Western democracies electing the upper-class-twit-of-the-year over and over again. As long as people keep electing incompetent leadership, we will keep seeing generals and admirals trying to make the best of the dog's dinner the political class hands them.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

And without their support (morally, planning and equipment), they would not be so bold to act as they have.

Add to this the strengthened defensive alliance Iran has developed with Russia, and Russias with China, and their plans to dominate the west and you start see the core of the connections that are creating the confidence to unleash the havoc unfolding globally.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Interesting article in the spectator that reinforces your points that last nights actions were to Iran and the Houthis predictable and ultimately largely ineffective.

Iran is pulling the strings here and the US really needs to wake up as to what’s happening in the region

The point of the action wasn't so much to inflict meaningful damage, as it was to show other prospective players in the piracy game that the US and UK won't take that sort of thing lying down.

The fact that the action didn't do much of consequence suggests they are very cognizant of an escalation spiral. The message won't be lost on third parties. "If I'm willing to do this in a situation I have to baby, imagine what I'll do to you when I don't."

 

[Rita_Poon]

Add to this the strengthened defensive alliance Iran has developed with Russia, and Russias with China, and their plans to dominate the west and you start see the core of the connections that are creating the confidence to unleash the havoc unfolding globally.

Energy security is the way forwards for putting this genie back in its bottle. Once energy is under control, there will be an appetite for western manufacture.
It's a long way between here and there though. And whoever builds the infrastructure that breaks this problems back probably doesn't get the pay off or the credit they ought. The masses just want it fixed and forgotten.

 

[tsubaki]

Interesting article in the spectator that reinforces your points that last nights actions were to Iran and the Houthis predictable and ultimately largely ineffective.

Iran is pulling the strings here and the US really needs to wake up as to what’s happening in the region

I am not sure that Iran is doing that though. As @Noisy noise annoys said above, Iran has been repeatedly attacked inside Iran by Israel's proxy forces, "rebels", intelligence agencies and so on and even Israeli forces directly (in Syria and Lebanon). When you factor in what the US did to Iraq and Afghanistan, both on their border remember, and what several US Presidents have threatened to do to them it shouldn't be a surprise that they do this.

The support given to the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah and others has to be seen in that context - they think they are under attack, and they are correct.

As to how to handle Iran going forward - Western leaders need to understand the country, their own countries and their own history of successfully dealing with adversary states. The Iranian regime is emboldened by being in a crisis against someone, usually the US. It is at risk when it lacks a crisis that can justify to its citizens (who are lets not forget probably have the most experience of freedom in the region) the things that come with the regime - the economic problems, the corruption, the pettiness of some of the morality laws and so on.

The JCPOA led to a reduction in international tensions and an increase in problems for the regime; this is the same thing that happened with the Soviet Union after the detente of the late 1980s, what happened in Libya at the end of Gadaffi's time, came very close to ruining Assad in Syria and was even happening in China under Hu Jintao before Xi took over.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The point of the action wasn't so much to inflict meaningful damage, as it was to show other prospective players in the piracy game that the US and UK won't take that sort of thing lying down.

The fact that the action didn't do much of consequence suggests they are very cognizant of an escalation spiral. The message won't be lost on third parties. "If I'm willing to do this in a situation I have to baby, imagine what I'll do to you when I don't."

I get that, but I’m still of the opinion that the US needs to get a grip of its Iranian policy.

These proxy force attacks are only going to escalate. It’s okay to execute strikes against the Houthis and other rag-tag militias, but they really need to start looking at cutting the head off the snake.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I am not sure that Iran is doing that though. As @Noisy noise annoys said above, Iran has been repeatedly attacked inside Iran by Israel's proxy forces, "rebels", intelligence agencies and so on and even Israeli forces directly (in Syria and Lebanon). When you factor in what the US did to Iraq and Afghanistan, both on their border remember, and what several US Presidents have threatened to do to them it shouldn't be a surprise that they do this.

The support given to the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah and others has to be seen in that context - they think they are under attack, and they are correct.

As to how to handle Iran going forward - Western leaders need to understand the country, their own countries and their own history of successfully dealing with adversary states. The Iranian regime is emboldened by being in a crisis against someone, usually the US. It is at risk when it lacks a crisis that can justify to its citizens (who are lets not forget probably have the most experience of freedom in the region) the things that come with the regime - the economic problems, the corruption, the pettiness of some of the morality laws and so on.

The JCPOA led to a reduction in international tensions and an increase in problems for the regime; this is the same thing that happened with the Soviet Union after the detente of the late 1980s, what happened in Libya at the end of Gadaffi's time, came very close to ruining Assad in Syria and was even happening in China under Hu Jintao before Xi took over.

So if I read you right - the policy the US needs to apply is one where the US rejoin the JCPOA, ease sanctions on Iran and thereby enable the Iranian economy to rebuild and ultimately reduce international friction?

Thing is internal political situation in Iran is the real worry. The IRGC have effectively taken over the government from within and have established an increasing stranglehold on Irans current and future ideology and policies. They are very extreme and are keen to exert a more strict Shia rule over the country and its foreign policies.

It was very apparent in their list of red lines following the Israeli invasion of Gaza that most of their red lines were linked to the US actions and not Israeli.

It would take a very brave US administration to take the option to ease sanctions on an increasingly extreme military led Shia Muslim government of Iran.

IMO The real change needs to come from within Iran, but if I read you correctly this can’t happen without sanctions being lifted. A confusing paradox

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Treasury Sanctions Iran’s Central Bank and National Development Fund​

September 20, 2019
Action targets major sources of funding for the regime’s proxies and terrorist arms, including the IRGC, the Qods Force, Hizballah and the Houthis

WASHINGTON- Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action against the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the National Development Fund of Iran (NDF), and Etemad Tejarate Pars Co. under its counterterrorism authority, Executive Order (E.O.) 13224. Iran’s Central Bank has provided billions of dollars to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), its Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and its terrorist proxy, Hizballah. Iran’s NDF, which is Iran’s sovereign wealth fund and whose board of trustees include Iran’s president, oil minister, and the governor of the Central Bank, has been a major source of foreign currency and funding for the IRGC-QF and Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). Etemad Tejarate Pars, also designated today, is an Iran-based company that is used to conceal financial transfers for MODAFL’s military purchases, including funds originating from the NDF.

“Iran’s brazen attack against Saudi Arabia is unacceptable. Treasury’s action targets a crucial funding mechanism that the Iranian regime uses to support its terrorist network, including the Qods Force, Hizballah, and other militants that spread terror and destabilize the region. The United States will continue its maximum pressure campaign against Iran’s repressive regime, which attempts to achieve its revolutionary agenda through regional aggression while squandering the country’s oil proceeds,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “Iran’s Central Bank and the National Development Fund were ostensibly intended to safeguard the welfare of the Iranian people, but have been used instead by this corrupt regime to move Iran’s foreign currency reserves for terrorist proxies.”

“We are putting governments on notice that they are risking the integrity of their financial systems by continuing to work with the Iranian regime’s arm of terror finance, its Central Bank,” said Sigal Mandelker, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. “We will vigorously enforce our sanctions to cut off the Iranian regime’s funding of global terrorism and its domestic oppression of the Iranian people, who are the regime’s longest suffering victims.”

CENTRAL BANK OF IRAN FUNDS THE IRGC, ITS QODS FORCE AND HIZBALLAH​

Today’s action targets the CBI for its financial support to the IRGC-QF and Hizballah. In May 2018, OFAC designated the CBI’s then-Governor Valiollah Seif, and the Assistant Director of the International Department Ali Tarzali, for facilitating financial transfers for the IRGC-QF and Hizballah. Also, in November 2018 and as part of Treasury’s disruption of an international oil-for-terror network, OFAC designated the CBI’s International Department Director Rasul Sajjad, and the CBI’s International Department Director, Hossein Yaghoobi, for conducting financial transactions for the IRGC-QF.

Since at least 2016, the IRGC-QF has received the vast majority of its foreign currency from the CBI and senior CBI officials have worked directly with the IRGC-QF to facilitate CBI’s financial support to the IRGC-QF. In 2017, the IRGC-QF oversaw the transfer of tens of millions of euros to Iraq from the CBI. Then-Governor of the CBI Valiollah Seif directed the transfer.

During 2018 and early 2019, the CBI facilitated the transfer of several billion of U.S. dollars and euros to the IRGC-QF and hundreds of millions to MODAFL from the NDF. Additionally, millions were to be transferred to the Houthis. CBI has also coordinated with the IRGC-QF to transfer funds to Hizballah.

OFAC is designating the CBI today for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to, the IRGC-QF and Hizballah.
The IRGC-QF, which was designated pursuant to E.O. 13224 on October 25, 2007, is a branch of the IRGC responsible for external operations and has provided material support to numerous terrorist groups, including the Taliban, Hizballah, HAMAS, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, making it a key component of Iran’s destabilizing regional activities. The IRGC, including its external arm, the IRGC-QF, was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on April 8, 2019.

Hizballah was designated by the Department of State as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in October 1997 pursuant to E.O. 13224 in October 2001. It was also designated in August 2012 pursuant to E.O. 13582, which targets the Government of Syria and its supporters.

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND: A SLUSH FUND FOR THE IRGC-QF AND MODAFL​

According to Article 84 of the Fifth Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the NDF was established to serve the welfare of the Iranian people by allocating revenues that originated from selling oil, gas, gas condensate, and oil products to durable wealth and productive economic investments. However, the NDF has been used as a slush fund for the IRGC-QF, which has, for years, received hundreds of millions of dollars in cash disbursements from the NDF.

The NDF, in coordination with the CBI, provided the IRGC-QF with half a billion U.S. dollars in 2017 and hundreds of millions of dollars in 2018. Also, despite an increase in the IRGC’s overall budget for 2019, the Rouhani administration withdrew some $4.8 billion from the NDF in January 2019 to amend the budget allocated to the IRGC and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB).
The IRIB was designated pursuant to E.O. 13628 in February 2013 for assisting or denying the free flow of information to or from the Iranian people. IRIB was implicated in censoring multiple media outlets and airing forced confessions from detainees.

During 2018 and early 2019, the CBI facilitated the transfer of hundreds of millions to both the Atomic Energy Organization and MODAFL from the NDF. Some of the funds to be transferred via Iran-based Etemad Tejarate Pars Co. were intended to be used for military purchases.

As of early 2019, Etemad Tejarate Pars Co. planned to send tens of millions in various currencies, including euros, to Wilmington General Trading LLC in Dubai, UAE, the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Moscow, Russia, and to companies on behalf of MODAFL.

OFAC is designating NDF for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to, the IRGC-QF and MODAFL.

OFAC is designating Etemad Tejarate Pars Co. for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to, MODAFL.
On March 26, 2019, OFAC designated MODAFL pursuant to E.O. 13224 for its role in assisting the IRGC-QF. Wilmington General Trading LLC was also designated on March 26, 2019 for being owned or controlled by Asadollah Seifi who obfuscated millions of dollars’ worth of transactions benefiting the Iranian regime and the purchase of foreign currency for the IRGC.

SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS​

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these entities that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons.

In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the entities designated today may themselves be exposed to designation. Furthermore, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant financial transaction or provides significant financial services for entities designated in connection with Iran’s support for international terrorism or any Iranian person on OFAC’s List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons could be subject to U.S. correspondent account or payable-through account sanctions.

The United States has a long standing policy of allowing for the sale of agricultural commodities, food, medicine and medical devices, and OFAC will continue to consider requests related to humanitarian trade with Iran as appropriate.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm780

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Some US concerns regarding Bidens strategy and handling of Iran

Biden’s choice: Let Iranian oil flow or watch prices rise

“Without oil, they have no money,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said of the Iranians. “Without money, terrorism loses its biggest benefactor.”

www.politico.com

Graham had voiced similar concerns back in 2021

Biden’s $90 Billion Bailout to Tehran | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

www.budget.senate.gov

 

[tsubaki]

So if I read you right - the policy the US needs to apply is one where the US rejoin the JCPOA, ease sanctions on Iran and thereby enable the Iranian economy to rebuild and ultimately reduce international friction?

Thing is internal political situation in Iran is the real worry. The IRGC have effectively taken over the government from within and have established an increasing stranglehold on Irans current and future ideology and policies. They are very extreme and are keen to exert a more strict Shia rule over the country and its foreign policies.

It was very apparent in their list of red lines following the Israeli invasion of Gaza that most of their red lines were linked to the US actions and not Israeli.

It would take a very brave US administration to take the option to ease sanctions on an increasingly extreme military led Shia Muslim government of Iran.

IMO The real change needs to come from within Iran, but if I read you correctly this can’t happen without sanctions being lifted. A confusing paradox

I think JCPOA has been killed by the US now, but in essence yes - the Iranian people won't put up with the IRGC (which is widely seen as corrupt) and the rest of the worst elements of the regime unless there is a considerable crisis, so the aim should be to prevent a crisis. That doesn't mean rolling over or abandoning the region, it just means removing any irritants (such as the ongoing outrages in the occupied Palestinian territories) and not overreacting as the regime starts to flail around and attempt to kick something off.

Some US concerns regarding Bidens strategy and handling of Iran

Biden’s choice: Let Iranian oil flow or watch prices rise

“Without oil, they have no money,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said of the Iranians. “Without money, terrorism loses its biggest benefactor.”

www.politico.com

Graham had voiced similar concerns back in 2021

Biden’s $90 Billion Bailout to Tehran | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

www.budget.senate.gov

That US analysis suffers from them being trapped in a system that they think benefits them - I agree that the obvious way of hurting Iran economically (and Russia FWIW) is to cut the oil price, and reduce their revenues. The easiest way, which is entirely legal and has a whole load of additional benefits, is to cut our consumption and share freely relevant technologies with the markets they'd try to divert the demand to.

Of course no US administration would ever do that, but just the EU doing it would have an immense impact for very little cost (in the grand scheme of things).

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

That US analysis suffers from them being trapped in a system that they think benefits them - I agree that the obvious way of hurting Iran economically (and Russia FWIW) is to cut the oil price, and reduce their revenues. The easiest way, which is entirely legal and has a whole load of additional benefits, is to cut our consumption and share freely relevant technologies with the markets they'd try to divert the demand to.

Of course no US administration would ever do that, but just the EU doing it would have an immense impact for very little cost (in the grand scheme of things).

They would still find buyers as we have seen with Russia. Worse still they world is firmly split and these autocratic states are siding and supporting one another.