Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

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The trump trade makes sense given a democrat sweep is unlikely and a divided government (whilst good for equities) would be seen as more of the same/neutral overall.

Positioning for a trump victory is a sensible hedge. That being said, it means eff all. We aren’t talking about a binary market outcome a la Brexit here and markets aren’t necessarily a good predictor of election outcomes.

Any trader with crypto interest would know that if Trump were to win then he is expected to remove tax on crypto.

Of course, this would logically mean the value of BTC would increase.

If Kamala wins then most (if not all) crypto participants can expect more of the same short term pull back as a best case scenario.

Due to the rise in BTC (currently $69,600) the logic is that the market is pricing in a Trump win.

For anyone working in this space, its pretty basic stuff unless something drastically changes before election day...
 
Any trader with crypto interest would know that if Trump were to win then he is expected to remove tax on crypto.

Of course, this would logically mean the value of BTC would increase.

If Kamala wins then most (if not all) crypto participants can expect more of the same short term pull back as a best case scenario.

Due to the rise in BTC (currently $69,600) the logic is that the market is pricing in a Trump win.

For anyone working in this space, its pretty basic stuff unless something drastically changes before election day...
Depends what you mean by crypto. Alts are off a fair bit the last few days.

That being said, the crypto market is based on anything but fundamentals and it’s dominated by idiots (from a technical/investment perspective), so again, I wouldn’t place much weight in that.

A Harris victory is neutral, a trump one positive. There’s no real downside risk to the trump trade.

It’s a fairly binary outcome in an extremely close race. Anyone pretending they know what’s going to happen and positioning that way would be taking a huge risk.
 
Depends what you mean by crypto. Alts are off a fair bit the last few days.

That being said, the crypto market is based on anything but fundamentals and it’s dominated by idiots (from a technical/investment perspective), so again, I wouldn’t place much weight in that.

A Harris victory is neutral, a trump one positive. There’s no real downside risk to the trump trade.

It’s a fairly binary outcome in an extremely close race. Anyone pretending they know what’s going to happen and positioning that way would be taking a huge risk.

Until the early result of Virginia comes in and we see by how much Harris wins by - nobody has a clue it's all just guesswork, the percentage she gets there will be a huge marker for the rest of the results
 
People complaining about polls and betting markets: they're all bunkum.

Why bother?

The Washington Post polls a day ago purported to show - at the same time as others have claimed a strong GOP showing in the early votes cast - that Harris had jumped out to a 20% lead in one of the battle ground states and up by 6/7/8 points in others.

None of it makes sense, unless you're a polling company or a bookmaker of some description laughing all the way to the bank.
 
Depends what you mean by crypto. Alts are off a fair bit the last few days.

That being said, the crypto market is based on anything but fundamentals and it’s dominated by idiots (from a technical/investment perspective), so again, I wouldn’t place much weight in that.

A Harris victory is neutral, a trump one positive. There’s no real downside risk to the trump trade.

It’s a fairly binary outcome in an extremely close race. Anyone pretending they know what’s going to happen and positioning that way would be taking a huge risk.

I wouldnt say a Kamala win is "neutral". At best its a short term pull back and at worst the US will treat the industry the same as they destroyed the FX space.

No one knows what is going to happen which makes the other posters slant on "insider trading" bizarre. However, the market is currently pointing in one direction.
 
I wouldnt say a Kamala win is "neutral". At best its a short term pull back and at worst the US will treat the industry the same as they destroyed the FX space.

No one knows what is going to happen which makes the other posters slant on "insider trading" bizarre. However, the market is currently pointing in one direction.
A Harris win is most likely going to be in a divided government scenario which would he more of the same, relatively neutral and good for markets.

Markets tend to perform best under divided governments.
 
A Harris win is most likely going to be in a divided government scenario which would he more of the same, relatively neutral and good for markets.

Markets tend to perform best under divided governments.

Totally disagree in the current circumstances. 100% disagree.
 
The video where Tucker Carlson is talking about this is amazing; they do this recreation where he is shooting a gun for some reason. And also show is dogs.

Just read this story. Tucker’s in bed with his wife and 4 dogs. Starts getting mauled and wakes up with claw marks on him.

His conclusion - a demon attacked him.

My conclusion - even his own dogs hate him.
 
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