Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[efcste97]

 

[Zatara]

 

[Zatara]

If you look at the Equities and Crypto markets the Trump win has already been priced in.

 

[dublinbluenose]

If you look at the Equities and Crypto markets the Trump win has already been priced in.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[Zatara]

You have no idea what you are talking about.

In fact, i do.

 

[dublinbluenose]

In fact, i do.

Go on then, enlighten us as to how the market can 'bake' in something that nobody on the planet knows the outcome of.

What you call baking in is speculative punting or an atempt to move a market.

I say that as someone who worked for 15 years in proprietary trading for a bookmaker.

 

[Zatara]

Go on then, enlighten us as to how the market can 'bake' in something that nobody on the planet knows the outcome of.

What you call baking in is speculative punting or an atempt to move a market.

I say that as someone who worked for 15 years in proprietary trading for a bookmaker.

Financial markets and crypto for north of two decades.

You only need to look at the markets to see it...if youre lazy on equities just a glance at the BTC price will show its being priced in.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Financial markets and crypto for north of two decades.

You only need to look at the markets to see it...if youre lazy on equities just a glance at the BTC price will show its being priced in.

Repeating what you said isn't enlightening. Well it is in one respect.

The only way you can bake in something is with inside knowledge. You can't have inside knowledge of something that hasn't happened yet. Its market manipulation for PR purposes and morons jumping on hoping to make money. There was $30m placed on Trump on Polymarket by the same individual on the day Musk started tweeting about it.

The smartest bet in the world would be to back Harris on Polymarket right now as the price is completely wrong based on a coin toss in polling.

Trump was something like an 11% chance on the exchanges the day of polling in 2016.

 

[bluestevon]

Repeating what you said isn't enlightening. Well it is in one respect.

The only way you can bake in something is with inside knowledge. You can't have inside knowledge of something that hasn't happened yet. Its market manipulation for PR purposes and morons jumping on hoping to make money. There was $30m placed on Trump on Polymarket by the same individual on the day Musk started tweeting about it.

The smartest bet in the world would be to back Harris on Polymarket right now as the price is completely wrong based on a coin toss in polling.

Trump was something like an 11% chance on the exchanges the day of polling in 2016.

Best bet would be on Harris now and as the odds shorten as they will do come Tuesday to lay money on Trump and walk away a sinner either way.

 

[Zatara]

Repeating what you said isn't enlightening. Well it is in one respect.

The only way you can bake in something is with inside knowledge. You can't have inside knowledge of something that hasn't happened yet. Its market manipulation for PR purposes and morons jumping on hoping to make money. There was $30m placed on Trump on Polymarket by the same individual on the day Musk started tweeting about it.

The smartest bet in the world would be to back Harris on Polymarket right now as the price is completely wrong based on a coin toss in polling.

Trump was something like an 11% chance on the exchanges the day of polling in 2016.

Of course the market can increase / decrease on market sentiment and based on that reaching a certain level it can be assumed (as most of the market is) that the Trump win is being priced in across the space.

No idea about bookmakers but in Trad-Fi this is rather common and the crypto space sentimemt is pretty clear. Otherwise it wouldnt be over $70k BTC.


Edit: The "insider knowledge" part of your post is total nonsense.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Of course the market can increase / decrease on market sentiment and based on that reaching a certain level it can be assumed (as most of the market is) that the Trump win is being priced in across the space.

No idea about bookmakers but in Trad-Fi this is rather common and the crypto space sentimemt is pretty clear. Otherwise it wouldnt be over $70k BTC.


Edit: The "insider knowledge" part of your post is total nonsense.

So like I said, you have no idea what is behind the reasoning why this one platform is so out of whack with polling. That's fine. We'll leave it there.

As for insider knowledge being nonsense, that's how Tony Bloom made his money (and how any successful trading desk does to be quite honest). I'm not talking about insider trading or espionage. It's being aware of something before the market does. In sports trading for example, this is news within a club that nobody else knows. An important player being sick/injured, a manager about to be sacked and so on.

 

[Zatara]

So like I said, you have no idea what is behind the reasoning why this one platform is so out of whack with polling. That's fine. We'll leave it there.

As for insider knowledge being nonsense, that's how Tony Bloom made his money (and how any successful trading desk does to be quite honest). I'm not talking about insider trading or espionage. It's being aware of something before the market does. In sports trading for example, this is news within a club that nobody else knows. An important player being sick/injured, a manager about to be sacked and so on.

I have zero interest of why one GAMBLING platform is showing certain BETTING prices.

I have stated the equities & crypto markets have already priced in a Trump win.

I'm pretty confident at this point that you dont understand how Trad-Fi and crypto markets operate. Nor how market sentiment works...insider trading discussion is childlike and has zero bearing on either market as it does not exist.

Lets leave it there.

 

[Zatara]

So like I said, you have no idea what is behind the reasoning why this one platform is so out of whack with polling. That's fine. We'll leave it there.

As for insider knowledge being nonsense, that's how Tony Bloom made his money (and how any successful trading desk does to be quite honest). I'm not talking about insider trading or espionage. It's being aware of something before the market does. In sports trading for example, this is news within a club that nobody else knows. An important player being sick/injured, a manager about to be sacked and so on.

OMG THIS COMMENT

" As for insider knowledge being nonsense, that's how Tony Bloom made his money (and how any successful trading desk does to be quite honest)"


Yeah you're not a trader lol

 

[Zatara]

Go on then, enlighten us as to how the market can 'bake' in something that nobody on the planet knows the outcome of.

What you call baking in is speculative punting or an atempt to move a market.

I say that as someone who worked for 15 years in proprietary trading for a bookmaker.

Sticking you on ignore you little lying rat

 

[bluestevon]

So like I said, you have no idea what is behind the reasoning why this one platform is so out of whack with polling. That's fine. We'll leave it there.

As for insider knowledge being nonsense, that's how Tony Bloom made his money (and how any successful trading desk does to be quite honest). I'm not talking about insider trading or espionage. It's being aware of something before the market does. In sports trading for example, this is news within a club that nobody else knows. An important player being sick/injured, a manager about to be sacked and so on.

You could argue that a lot of politicians got very wealthy based upon insider trading also, family buying or selling stocks that their relative has prior knowledge of a policy change. Or contract award.

Never would get proven though as a huge host of them do it.